Sunday, October 30, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)



New State Polls (10/30/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Alaska
10/21-10/26
+/-4.9%
400 likely voters
47
43
0
+4
+5.89
Arizona
10/26-10/28
+/-4.3%
994 likely voters
42
44
5
+2
+1.07
Florida
10/25-10/26
+/-2.7%
1301 registered voters
48
47
3
+1
--
Florida
10/25-10/26
+/-3.5%
779 likely voters
45
44
2
+1
--
Florida
10/25-10/27
+/-3.4%
814 likely voters
42
46
6
+4
+2.19
Maine
10/20-10/25
+/-3.8%
670 likely voters
48
37
3
+11
+7.16
Maine CD1
10/20-10/25
+/-5.4%
317 likely voters
54
34
4
+20
+17.53
Maine CD2
10/20-10/25
+/-5.3%
329 likely voters
43
40
3
+3
+3.05
North Carolina
10/25-10/26
+/-2.8%
1273 registered voters
49
47
3
+2
--
North Carolina
10/25-10/26
+/-3.5%
780 likely voters
47
41
2
+6
--
North Carolina
10/26-10/28
+/-4.1%
992 likely voters
48
45
2
+3
+1.82
Pennsylvania
10/26-10/28
+/-3.7%
1091 likely voters
48
40
2
+8
+5.55
Utah
10/20-10/27
+/-3.42%
823 likely voters
24
32
8
+8
+9.391
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.08 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 30% support in the Dan Jones survey.


Polling Quick Hits:
9 more days.

A busy Sunday had eleven new survey releases in seven states across mostly lean and toss up states.

--
Changes (10/30/16)
Nothing changed on the map, but Alaska was added to the Watch List along the Lean/Toss Up line. That moved the Last Frontier up a couple of spots on the Spectrum, hopping Missouri and Texas. Maine (statewide) also shifted two positions, pushing past Virginia and Michigan deeper into the Lean Clinton category. Finally, Utah and Indiana traded spots on the Strong side of the Lean Trump category.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
MO-10
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
ME-23
(200)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/27/16)

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Saturday, October 29, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)



New State Polls (10/29/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/26-10/27
+/-4.3%
500 likely voters
46
45
6
+1
+2.35
Michigan
10/25-10/26
+/-4.3%
500 likely voters
50
43
2
+7
+6.88
Minnesota
10/22-10/25
+/-3.9%
656 likely voters
49
39
3
+10
+7.38
Nevada
10/25
+/-3.3%
875 registered voters
46
46
5
+/-0
--
Nevada
10/26-10/27
+/-4.1%
550 likely voters
44
42
10
+2
+1.19
New Hampshire
10/23-10/25
+/-3.9%
600 likely voters
46
43
3
+3
+6.01
North Carolina
10/26-10/27
+/-3.8%
650 likely voters
48
45
2
+3
+1.70
Ohio
10/26-10/27
+/-3.4%
800 likely voters
45
45
3
+/-0
+0.66
Pennsylvania
10/20-10/26
+/-5.5%
420 likely voters
45
39
3
+6
--
Pennsylvania
10/25-10/26
+/-4.1%
550 likely voters
48
43
3
+5
+5.48
Wisconsin
10/27-10/28
+/-4.9%
400 likely voters
48
42
1
+6
+6.55


Polling Quick Hits:
10 days left.

There is a lot of blue in the day's polling release from mostly Lean and Toss Up Clinton states. The only bright spots for Trump were a couple of ties in Nevada and Ohio, the two most narrowly divided blue states at this point.

Florida:
Remember that St. Leo poll that had Clinton up 13 points? Well, there are not a lot data to back that up. That is true with this Emerson poll of Florida. It fits right in the one to four point range in Clinton's favor that have come to dominate the polling in the Sunshine state since the first debate.


Michigan:
Knock Emerson's methodology (no cell phones) all you like, but this one is right on the FHQ average in the state. That does little to change the outlook in the Great Lakes state.


Minnesota:
Yes, Minnesota has been only sporadically surveyed throughout 2016. But at the same time, the polls that have been conducted have continually found a race favoring Clinton and in typically in the lean range. The latest Survey USA poll in the Land of 10,000 Lakes pushes even further, stretching to a ten point Clinton edge, but one that looks a lot like the recent Star Tribune poll there.


Nevada:
One has to wonder what this poll would look like with a likely voter screen. Instead Gravis has rolled out yet another survey of registered voters. The difference would likely have been negligible, but why leave room for doubt when the majority of other firms have long since shifted to likely voter screens. In any event, Nevada is close. That has not changed. Nor has the fact that Clinton has been ahead in the Silver state more often than not since the first debate.


New Hampshire:
The thing that has made New Hampshire closer in the last two polls -- this Emerson one and the recent Monmouth survey -- is Trump's position. Clinton is right in line with where she has been in the Granite state; in the mid- to upper 40s. Trump, on the other hand, has been stuck in the upper 30s for most of the post-convention period. Creeping up into the 40s narrows the Clinton advantage for Trump, but does not change the fact that it remains a Clinton advantage.


North Carolina:
Another day and another narrow Clinton advantage in North Carolina. The constant stream of polls across the various firms and different methodologies are providing a clear picture of the state of play in the Old North state: Clinton seems poised to flip North Carolina.


Ohio:
The North Carolina story is the same one in Ohio to some degree. But in the Buckeye state, the picture is not a clear lead for Clinton. Instead, the one thing that is clear in Ohio is that it is not clear who is ahead. The polls have gone back and forth there since the second debate/Trump tape, and the average has gradually tracked toward a tie over that period. And that is exactly what Emerson has found in its latest poll: a tie.


Pennsylvania:
Both new polls in the Keystone state tell a familiar tale: Clinton ahead and Trump continuing to hover around the 40 percent mark. Very simply, that is the story of the lean states on both sides of the partisan line. The leader is typically in the mid- to upper 40s and the candidate playing catch up is faced with having to pull themselves out of the 30s. With ten days left, the writing may be on the wall in such states.


Wisconsin:
The small sample size in this Emerson survey does give FHQ some pause, but the result is pretty much as it has been in other recent polls in Wisconsin. The Badger state has Clinton lean almost throughout all of 2016. That does not appear to be changing at the moment.


--
Changes (10/29/16)
Nothing changed on the map, Spectrum or Watch List from a day ago.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
VA-13
(227)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
ME-23
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/28/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/27/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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