Tuesday, November 1, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)



New State Polls (11/1/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/29-10/30
+/-4.12%
550 likely voters
41
45
8
+4
+1.19
California
10/28-10/31
+/-3.6%
747 likely voters
56
35
4
+21
+23.04
Illinois
10/26-10/27
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
48
37
10
+11
--
Illinois
10/27-10/30
+/-4.3%
500 likely voters
53
41
2
+11
+15.08
Kentucky
10/26-10/28
+/-3.44%
811 likely voters
32
56
5
+24
--
Kentucky
10/25-10/30
+/-4.0%
602 likely voters
37
54
6
+17
+19.71
Maine
10/24-10/26
+/-3.4%
812 likely voters
42
37
9
+5
--
Maine
10/28-10/30
+/-3.5%
750 likely voters
46
42
5
+4
+6.75
Maine CD1
10/24-10/26
+/-4.7%
429 likely voters
45
33
9
+12
--
Maine CD1
10/28-10/30
+/-5.0%
375 likely voters
49
43
4
+6
+15.10
Maine CD2
10/24-10/26
+/-5.0%
382 likely voters
38
41
9
+3
--
Maine CD2
10/28-10/30
+/-5.0%
375 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+3.06
Michigan
10/31
+/-3.61%
737 likely voters
50
43
3
+7
+6.88
Missouri
10/28-10/31
+/-4.9%
405 likely voters
38
52
4
+14
+7.51
New Hampshire
10/26-10/28
+/-5.1%
408 likely voters
43
45
4
+2
--
New Hampshire
10/26-10/30
+/-3.9%
641 likely voters
46
39
5
+7
+5.79
North Carolina
10/23-10/27
+/-3.7%
710 likely voters
42
41
12
+1
--
North Carolina
10/28-10/31
+/-3.7%
718 likely voters
44
51
3
+7
+1.55
Pennsylvania
10/26-10/30
+/-5.1%
652 likely voters
49
38
7
+11
+5.53
Texas
10/27-10/29
+/-3.13%
980 likely voters
39
52
4
+13
+6.96
Virginia
10/27-10/30
+/-3.5%
1024 likely voters
48
42
1
+6
--
Virginia
10/28-10/30
+/-3.4%
800 likely voters
49
45
2
+4
+6.70


--
Changes (11/1/16)
One more week.

The map holds steady at 340-198. However, the bevy of new polls pushed New Hampshire back onto the Watch List. The Granite state is now within a point of the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side of the Spectrum below. Despite all the poll releases, the movement on the Electoral College Spectrum from a day ago was minimal. Michigan and Maine traded positions in the Lean Clinton area and Kentucky likewise was nudged past Nebraska on the far right end of the Spectrum.

It is notable that all of the blue states above with exception of Pennsylvania saw their FHQ average margins slightly decrease upon the introduction of these new polls to the dataset. Most of that shift is attributable to Trump gains rather than Clinton declines across those states. Clinton continues to have less variable numbers while Trump continues to climb/consolidate Republican support as election day nears.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
MO-10
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
Happy Halloween, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Share |

Monday, October 31, 2016

Happy Halloween, 2016



Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , ,
Share |

The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)



New State Polls (10/31/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/30
+/-3.17%
952 likely voters
45
44
4
+1
+4.01
Florida
10/30
+/-3.11%
989 likely voters
44
48
4
+4
+2.08
Georgia
10/25-10/27
+/-4.1%
594 likely voters
42
49
6
+7
+2.89
Indiana
10/27-10/30
+/-4.9%
402 likely voters
39
50
5
+11
+9.56
Nevada
10/30
+/-3.49%
787 likely voters
44
48
3
+4
+1.02
North Carolina
10/30
+/-2.85%
1176 likely voters
44
47
4
+2
+1.74
Ohio
10/30
+/-2.84%
1187 likely voters
43
48
5
+5
+0.52
Pennsylvania
10/25-10/30
+/-1.7%
3217 likely voters
47
44
4
+3
--
Pennsylvania
10/30
+/-2.77%
1249 likely voters
45
43
6
+2
+5.40
Virginia
10/30
+/-2.94%
1106 likely voters
47
43
5
+4
+6.81
Wisconsin
10/30
+/-2.86%
1772 likely voters
46
42
5
+4
+6.44


Polling Quick Hits:
8 days until Election Day.

At first glance, there is a bit of a rightward shift. At first glance. The bulk of the polling ushering in the new week is from Remington in a set of eight battlegrounds. But following the baseline the firm established a week ago, there was little change; even in a series of surveys in the field after the Friday revelations concerning the FBI and emails potentially linked to Clinton. That is not to say that the race is not in the midst of a bit of a narrowing period or that another email story will not have an effect, but there are not clear signs of that yet from the state level polls.


Colorado:
Clinton has consistently been in the mid-40s in Colorado. The question remains whether Trump can pull above and away from the 40 percent mark. The Remington survey is some evidence that he can, but will that happen across other polls in the Centennial state over the next week? Consistency is the name of the game there.


Florida:
Trump has not been as high as 48 percent in a multi-way poll all year in Florida. Ahead, yes, but not that close to 50 percent. That Remington finds him there is exception rather than rule. Clinton in the mid-40s is more typical.


Georgia:
Survey USA has not been in the field in the Peach state since just after convention season and Clinton is still stuck at 42 percent, just below Obama's share of support there in 2012. Meanwhile, Trump has bumped up to near 50 percent. That is a newish development in multi-way Georgia polls. Newish because Opinion Savvy had Trump stretching up to around that mark last week. Those types of polls make Georgia look a lot more like 2012 again with perhaps a modest shift toward the Democrats.


Indiana:
In two and half weeks the Monmouth polls in Indiana have shifted toward Trump. Like the typical lean state (on either side of the partisan line) the leading candidate is in the mid- to upper 40s while the trailing candidate is tethered to the 40 percent threshold. Clinton is that trailing candidate in the Hoosier state and Trump-Pence seem well-positioned in the VP nominee's home state.


Nevada:
Remington is the only firm to find Trump at or above 47 percent in a multiple candidate survey all year in the Silver state. There is some wiggle room in Nevada since that level has been foreign territory for both candidates. It would not be odd to see support moving away from undecided and the third party candidates as Election Day approaches. Remington may be the first to show that moving toward Trump, but they are alone in a close state just a hair more than a point overall in Clinton's favor.


North Carolina:
In the Tar Heel state, Remington is the only firm to find Trump ahead in the time since the first debate. The data may be turning but are not there yet.


Ohio:
Consistently variable Ohio has shifted into a period during the second half of October favoring Trump. The established range in the polling during that time is tied to Trump +5. This Remington survey is on the upper end of that range while FHQ's average in the Buckeye state is closing in on a tie. The trajectory of this one is in Trump's direction and it could cross over the partisan line in the next week.


Pennsylvania:
Trump still has not trailed in a Pennsylvania poll in 2016. The margin has contracted some here at FHQ as the space between the candidates in the Keystone state has narrowed, but it will have to close a lot more and consistently and frequently over the next week to change course in a state that has been out of Trump's reach and almost necessary to getting to 270.


Virginia:
Virginia has been even more impervious to Trump's entreaties than Pennsylvania has. That is true even in a series of Republican-leaning polls.


Wisconsin:
The Badger state is somewhere in between Pennsylvania and Virginia both in term of outlook and its position on the Electoral College Spectrum below. It is very simply the classic Lean state this cycle, and in this case, Trump is the trailing candidate stuck around 40 percent.

--
Changes (10/31/16)
Nothing changed on the map, Spectrum or Watch List from a day ago.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
MO-10
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
ME-23
(200)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
NH-4
(243)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Share |
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)