OKLAHOMA
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 43 [8 at-large, 5 PLEOs, 24 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Changes were limited in Oklahoma from 2016 to 2020. The primary stayed on Super Tuesday and Sooner state Democrats gained a superdelegate and lost one district delegates in 2020 compared to the 2016 delegation. It was a status quo interim period between the last cycle and 2020 in Oklahoma.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Oklahoma's 24 congressional district delegates are split across 5 congressional districts and have a variation of just two delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Oklahoma Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 4 delegates
CD3 - 4 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 37 pledged delegates in Oklahoma are chosen at the presidential preference primary state convention on April 4 based on the results in the respective congressional districts for district delegates and statewide results for the PLEO and then at-large delegates.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early April when the Oklahoma statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINA
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 123 [24 at-large, 14 PLEOs, 72 congressional district, 13 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Little changed with the North Carolina Democratic delegate selection process from 2016 to 2020. The primary did shift from its 2016 position in the middle of March to Super Tuesday, but that was only a change of two weeks. With Georgia vacating Super Tuesday for the first time in decades, North Carolina essentially replaced it on Super Tuesday.
Beyond that, not much else changed with the overall delegation. Tar Heel state Democrats lost two superdelegates, but gained an at-large delegate and two district delegates in 2020 compared to the 2016 delegation.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
North Carolina's 72 congressional district delegates are split across 13 congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength North Carolina Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 8 delegates
CD3 - 4 delegates
CD4 - 9 delegates*
CD5 - 3 delegates*
CD6 - 7 delegates*
CD7 - 5 delegates*
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 5 delegates*
CD10 - 4 delegates
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 8 delegates
CD13 - 3 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. 8 of North Carolina's 13 districts have odd numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 72 district delegates in North Carolina are chosen at district conventions on April 25 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 14 PLEO and then 24 at-large delegates are selected at the June 6 state convention, the end of a multi-tiered caucus/convention process that started in February.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the North Carolina statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 123 [24 at-large, 14 PLEOs, 72 congressional district, 13 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Little changed with the North Carolina Democratic delegate selection process from 2016 to 2020. The primary did shift from its 2016 position in the middle of March to Super Tuesday, but that was only a change of two weeks. With Georgia vacating Super Tuesday for the first time in decades, North Carolina essentially replaced it on Super Tuesday.
Beyond that, not much else changed with the overall delegation. Tar Heel state Democrats lost two superdelegates, but gained an at-large delegate and two district delegates in 2020 compared to the 2016 delegation.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
North Carolina's 72 congressional district delegates are split across 13 congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength North Carolina Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 8 delegates
CD3 - 4 delegates
CD4 - 9 delegates*
CD5 - 3 delegates*
CD6 - 7 delegates*
CD7 - 5 delegates*
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 5 delegates*
CD10 - 4 delegates
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 8 delegates
CD13 - 3 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. 8 of North Carolina's 13 districts have odd numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 72 district delegates in North Carolina are chosen at district conventions on April 25 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 14 PLEO and then 24 at-large delegates are selected at the June 6 state convention, the end of a multi-tiered caucus/convention process that started in February.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the North Carolina statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 91 [16 at-large, 10 PLEOs, 49 congressional district, 16 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Like Colorado and Maine, Minnesota also re-established a presidential primary in 2016. That change to a primary is significant because caucuses tend to be lower turnout electoral events. Minnesota, then consistent with the later encouragements from the DNC, opted for a more participatory election in 2020 than has been the case in the Land of 10,000 Lakes in the post-reform era.
That said, Minnesota's position on the calendar is the same as a primary in 2020 as it was as a caucus in 2016: on Super Tuesday.
Additionally, even the Minnesota delegation did not change that much for 2020. The delegation lost one at-large delegate and one district delegate. The PLEO and superdelegates stayed the same.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Minnesota's 49 congressional district delegates are split across 8 congressional districts and have some larger variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Minnesota Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 7 delegates*
CD4 - 8 delegates
CD5 - 10 delegates
CD6 - 4 delegates
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. Minnesota's six delegate difference between the most delegate-rich district to the least is more pronounced for a medium sized state than in some others.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 49 district delegates in Minnesota are chosen at district conventions on May 2-29 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 10 PLEO and then 16 at-large delegates are selected at the May 31 state convention, the end of a multi-tiered caucus/convention process.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-May when the Minnesota statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 91 [16 at-large, 10 PLEOs, 49 congressional district, 16 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Like Colorado and Maine, Minnesota also re-established a presidential primary in 2016. That change to a primary is significant because caucuses tend to be lower turnout electoral events. Minnesota, then consistent with the later encouragements from the DNC, opted for a more participatory election in 2020 than has been the case in the Land of 10,000 Lakes in the post-reform era.
That said, Minnesota's position on the calendar is the same as a primary in 2020 as it was as a caucus in 2016: on Super Tuesday.
Additionally, even the Minnesota delegation did not change that much for 2020. The delegation lost one at-large delegate and one district delegate. The PLEO and superdelegates stayed the same.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Minnesota's 49 congressional district delegates are split across 8 congressional districts and have some larger variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Minnesota Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 7 delegates*
CD4 - 8 delegates
CD5 - 10 delegates
CD6 - 4 delegates
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. Minnesota's six delegate difference between the most delegate-rich district to the least is more pronounced for a medium sized state than in some others.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 49 district delegates in Minnesota are chosen at district conventions on May 2-29 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 10 PLEO and then 16 at-large delegates are selected at the May 31 state convention, the end of a multi-tiered caucus/convention process.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-May when the Minnesota statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: MASSACHUSETTS
MASSACHUSETTS
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 114 [20 at-large, 12 PLEOs, 59 congressional district, 23 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Little has changed in Massachusetts since 2016 with respect to delegate selection. The primary remains on Super Tuesday as it has for most cycles in the post-reform era. The delegation shrank by two superdelegates, but that is really it.
The largest change is that Massachusetts voters had the opportunity for the first time to vote early in a presidential primary election.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Massachusetts's 59 congressional district delegates are split across 9 congressional districts and have some limited variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Massachusetts Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
CD5 - 8 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 7 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 59 district delegates in Massachusetts are chosen at district caucuses on April 25 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. Later, on May 16 the state central committee of the Massachusetts Democratic Party will select 12 PLEO and then 20 at-large delegates. based on the allocation from the statewide vote.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the Massachusetts statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 114 [20 at-large, 12 PLEOs, 59 congressional district, 23 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Little has changed in Massachusetts since 2016 with respect to delegate selection. The primary remains on Super Tuesday as it has for most cycles in the post-reform era. The delegation shrank by two superdelegates, but that is really it.
The largest change is that Massachusetts voters had the opportunity for the first time to vote early in a presidential primary election.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Massachusetts's 59 congressional district delegates are split across 9 congressional districts and have some limited variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Massachusetts Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
CD5 - 8 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 7 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 59 district delegates in Massachusetts are chosen at district caucuses on April 25 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. Later, on May 16 the state central committee of the Massachusetts Democratic Party will select 12 PLEO and then 20 at-large delegates. based on the allocation from the statewide vote.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the Massachusetts statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: MAINE
MAINE
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 32 [5 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 16 congressional district, 8 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Like Colorado, Maine also re-established a presidential primary in 2016. Unlike Colorado, that effort derailed in late 2018 when the 2016 law expired (mainly because of concerns about funding the election). Those concerns were ironed out in early 2019 and the presidential primary was returned to the Pine Tree state. But later an effort to add a ranked choice voting element to the presidential primary was scuttled.
The change to a primary is significant because caucuses tend to be lower turnout electoral events.
Maine's position on the calendar also bumped up a few days, moving from caucuses the weekend after Super Tuesday to a primary on Super Tuesday itself.
Additionally, the Pine Tree state gained a couple of delegates in their delegation from 2016. Democrats in the state lost a district delegate, but gained 3 superdelegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Maine's 16 congressional district delegates are split across 2 congressional districts and have some limited variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Maine Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 24 pledged delegates in Maine are chosen at the state convention starting on May 29 based on the results in the respective congressional districts for district delegates and statewide results determine the allocation of the 3 PLEO and then 5 at-large delegates.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-May when the Maine statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 32 [5 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 16 congressional district, 8 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Like Colorado, Maine also re-established a presidential primary in 2016. Unlike Colorado, that effort derailed in late 2018 when the 2016 law expired (mainly because of concerns about funding the election). Those concerns were ironed out in early 2019 and the presidential primary was returned to the Pine Tree state. But later an effort to add a ranked choice voting element to the presidential primary was scuttled.
The change to a primary is significant because caucuses tend to be lower turnout electoral events.
Maine's position on the calendar also bumped up a few days, moving from caucuses the weekend after Super Tuesday to a primary on Super Tuesday itself.
Additionally, the Pine Tree state gained a couple of delegates in their delegation from 2016. Democrats in the state lost a district delegate, but gained 3 superdelegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Maine's 16 congressional district delegates are split across 2 congressional districts and have some limited variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Maine Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 24 pledged delegates in Maine are chosen at the state convention starting on May 29 based on the results in the respective congressional districts for district delegates and statewide results determine the allocation of the 3 PLEO and then 5 at-large delegates.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-May when the Maine statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: COLORADO
COLORADO
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 79 [14 at-large, 9 PLEOs, 44 congressional district, 12 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
While the position of the Colorado delegate selection event did not change between 2016 and 2020, the mode of delegate selection did. Colorado voters in 2016 passed a ballot initiative to bring a presidential primary back to the Centennial state for the first time since the 2000 cycle. And although the change granted the governor the ability to set the date of the contest for one of the first three Tuesdays of March, Governor Polis ultimately opted to slot the Colorado primary into Super Tuesday. That caucus-to-primary shift actually preceded the move by the DNC to encourage such changes for the 2020 cycle. Nonetheless, Colorado is one of the 11 states that made the change for 2020.
The other quirk in the newly re-etablished Colorado presidential primary is that the process works via vote-by-mail. Democratic registrants are mailed a Democratic ballot, while unaffiliated voters -- who are allowed to participate -- are mailed both a Democratic and Republican primary ballot from which they choose one. There is same-day registration as well for anyone who wants to participate as a Democrat.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Colorado's 44 congressional district delegates are split across 7 congressional districts and have some variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Colorado Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 4 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. Colorado has a total of 4 districts with odd numbers of delegates -- more than half -- and the range is five delegates from a low of four delegates in a district to a high of nine (two districts). That is more variation compared to a state like California with many more districts.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 44 district delegates in Colorado are chosen in April 2-17 district caucuses based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 9 PLEO and then 14 at-large delegates are selected on April 18 at the state convention based on the statewide primary results.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-April when the Colorado statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 79 [14 at-large, 9 PLEOs, 44 congressional district, 12 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
While the position of the Colorado delegate selection event did not change between 2016 and 2020, the mode of delegate selection did. Colorado voters in 2016 passed a ballot initiative to bring a presidential primary back to the Centennial state for the first time since the 2000 cycle. And although the change granted the governor the ability to set the date of the contest for one of the first three Tuesdays of March, Governor Polis ultimately opted to slot the Colorado primary into Super Tuesday. That caucus-to-primary shift actually preceded the move by the DNC to encourage such changes for the 2020 cycle. Nonetheless, Colorado is one of the 11 states that made the change for 2020.
The other quirk in the newly re-etablished Colorado presidential primary is that the process works via vote-by-mail. Democratic registrants are mailed a Democratic ballot, while unaffiliated voters -- who are allowed to participate -- are mailed both a Democratic and Republican primary ballot from which they choose one. There is same-day registration as well for anyone who wants to participate as a Democrat.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Colorado's 44 congressional district delegates are split across 7 congressional districts and have some variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Colorado Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 4 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. Colorado has a total of 4 districts with odd numbers of delegates -- more than half -- and the range is five delegates from a low of four delegates in a district to a high of nine (two districts). That is more variation compared to a state like California with many more districts.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 44 district delegates in Colorado are chosen in April 2-17 district caucuses based on the results in the respective congressional districts. The 9 PLEO and then 14 at-large delegates are selected on April 18 at the state convention based on the statewide primary results.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-April when the Colorado statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Monday, March 2, 2020
So a Candidate Has Dropped Out. What Happens to Their Delegates?
With Pete Buttigieg and now Amy Klobuchar heading for the exits in the 2020 Democratic nomination race, one question has filled my inbox and DMs on Twitter:
What happens now with the 26 pledged delegates Buttigieg has and the 7 in Klobuchar's column?
First of all, 33 delegates obviously does not amount to much in the grand scheme of things when 1991 pledged delegates are needed on the first ballot to clinch the Democratic nomination in 2020. Nonetheless, if this race gets bogged down in the delegate math over the next three months and primary season ends with no clear resolution to who the presumptive nominee is, then those 33 delegates may matter.
But what happens to them? Well, it depends. What has happened so far in the first four states and will happen on Super Tuesday is the allocation of delegate slots to particular candidates. That is important, but it is not the only facet of the process. What runs parallel and very often behind the allocation process is the selection process. That process fills those slots allocated to candidates in primaries and caucuses across the country with actual human beings.
And those people, when they file to run as delegate candidates, pledge to a particular candidate (or to remain uncommitted if that is their preference and the uncommitted line on the ballot gets 15 percent of the vote). Those pledges are just that: pledges. Delegates are instructed by the national party rules to "in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." But that is not a binding mechanism. Democratic delegates are not bound as Republican delegates are. They are pledged and technically can support whomever they want regardless of that pledge. However, because of the way they are selected -- typically with some input from the campaigns -- and because the campaigns have the right to review all delegates selected to represent them, they tend to be quite loyal. Pledged delegates can stray, then, but do not often do so.
[Yes, there are laws in some states that require delegates to respect those pledges, but there are questions about the constitutionality of those laws not to mention issues with how a state would even go about challenging that in the context of a national convention that is only in session for a limited amount of time.]
But what are the limits of those pledges? Surely when a candidate drops out of the race something happens to either the delegates allocated to them or who have been selected to represent them. It does. But first what happens depends on how the candidate in question exits the race. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have suspended their campaigns.
That is a meaningful distinction. Their campaigns have been suspended but they are still technically candidates in the race. Even without any involvement from those two campaigns, delegate candidates of those two candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada will continue in the delegate selection process.
District delegates of Buttigieg and Klobuchar when they are selected will then immediately become free agents, free to choose a candidate to back or to let candidates woo them as they might superdelegates now. They become a set of first ballot unpledged delegates.
Most of the delegates won by these two candidates are district delegates. Buttigieg claimed nine district delegates in Iowa, six district delegates in New Hampshire and three district delegates in Nevada. Klobuchar was allocated one district delegate in Iowa and an additional four in New Hampshire. Ten of those 23 district delegates -- the ones from New Hampshire -- have already basically been chosen. Slates of district delegates were elected for each active candidate at pre-primary caucuses in the Granite state on January 25. Iowa district delegates will be selected on April 25 and Nevada Democrats will select their district delegates at the party's May 30 state convention. If the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns are still in suspension at those points, then they will retain those delegates and they will all become free agents upon selection.
Things get more complicated when it comes to the ten at-large and PLEO (pledged party leaders and elected officials) delegates. However, as was the case with district delegates, if a candidate's campaign remains in suspension through the selection process, then those delegates will be selected for that candidate and they would become free agents at the convention.
Yet, if the candidate changes the state of the campaign -- comes out of suspension or more formally ends their campaign -- then the process works a bit differently. There is boilerplate language in every state delegate selection plan about how to treat those delegate slots in the event that someone is not longer a candidate:
If Buttigieg and Klobuchar stay suspended then they have some control over the 33 delegate slots allocated them. More importantly, they would have some control over where their allocated slots do not go. Buttigieg, in his remarks when dropping out of the race, strongly hinted that he was not for a revolution of the sort for which Sanders is advocating. And Klobuchar is set to endorse Biden. If both remain suspended, then their statewide delegates would not be reallocated. And that reallocation would benefit Sanders the most in Iowa and New Hampshire. [Buttigieg won delegates in Nevada but they were district delegates and cannot be reallocated.]
While both candidates may retain some control over who gets selected, they do not have full control over any delegates selected to represent them. An endorsement like the one of Biden from Klobuchar may carry some weight with her handful of delegates, but that is not binding. Those delegates would not have to follow that instruction. They are free agents at the point they are selected.
So, no, 33 delegates is not really much more than a drop in the bucket, but with Super Tuesday looming, these distinctions above may matter a whole lot more if candidates like Bloomberg and Warren rack up some decent numbers of delegates. It could become a lot more consequential.
What happens now with the 26 pledged delegates Buttigieg has and the 7 in Klobuchar's column?
First of all, 33 delegates obviously does not amount to much in the grand scheme of things when 1991 pledged delegates are needed on the first ballot to clinch the Democratic nomination in 2020. Nonetheless, if this race gets bogged down in the delegate math over the next three months and primary season ends with no clear resolution to who the presumptive nominee is, then those 33 delegates may matter.
But what happens to them? Well, it depends. What has happened so far in the first four states and will happen on Super Tuesday is the allocation of delegate slots to particular candidates. That is important, but it is not the only facet of the process. What runs parallel and very often behind the allocation process is the selection process. That process fills those slots allocated to candidates in primaries and caucuses across the country with actual human beings.
And those people, when they file to run as delegate candidates, pledge to a particular candidate (or to remain uncommitted if that is their preference and the uncommitted line on the ballot gets 15 percent of the vote). Those pledges are just that: pledges. Delegates are instructed by the national party rules to "in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." But that is not a binding mechanism. Democratic delegates are not bound as Republican delegates are. They are pledged and technically can support whomever they want regardless of that pledge. However, because of the way they are selected -- typically with some input from the campaigns -- and because the campaigns have the right to review all delegates selected to represent them, they tend to be quite loyal. Pledged delegates can stray, then, but do not often do so.
[Yes, there are laws in some states that require delegates to respect those pledges, but there are questions about the constitutionality of those laws not to mention issues with how a state would even go about challenging that in the context of a national convention that is only in session for a limited amount of time.]
But what are the limits of those pledges? Surely when a candidate drops out of the race something happens to either the delegates allocated to them or who have been selected to represent them. It does. But first what happens depends on how the candidate in question exits the race. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have suspended their campaigns.
That is a meaningful distinction. Their campaigns have been suspended but they are still technically candidates in the race. Even without any involvement from those two campaigns, delegate candidates of those two candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada will continue in the delegate selection process.
District delegates of Buttigieg and Klobuchar when they are selected will then immediately become free agents, free to choose a candidate to back or to let candidates woo them as they might superdelegates now. They become a set of first ballot unpledged delegates.
Most of the delegates won by these two candidates are district delegates. Buttigieg claimed nine district delegates in Iowa, six district delegates in New Hampshire and three district delegates in Nevada. Klobuchar was allocated one district delegate in Iowa and an additional four in New Hampshire. Ten of those 23 district delegates -- the ones from New Hampshire -- have already basically been chosen. Slates of district delegates were elected for each active candidate at pre-primary caucuses in the Granite state on January 25. Iowa district delegates will be selected on April 25 and Nevada Democrats will select their district delegates at the party's May 30 state convention. If the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns are still in suspension at those points, then they will retain those delegates and they will all become free agents upon selection.
Things get more complicated when it comes to the ten at-large and PLEO (pledged party leaders and elected officials) delegates. However, as was the case with district delegates, if a candidate's campaign remains in suspension through the selection process, then those delegates will be selected for that candidate and they would become free agents at the convention.
Yet, if the candidate changes the state of the campaign -- comes out of suspension or more formally ends their campaign -- then the process works a bit differently. There is boilerplate language in every state delegate selection plan about how to treat those delegate slots in the event that someone is not longer a candidate:
If a presidential candidate otherwise entitled to an allocation is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the at-large delegates, their allocation will be proportionally divided among the other preferences entitled to an allocation.Yes, the delegate slots would be proportionally reallocated to the candidates who 1) got over 15 percent statewide in the primary or caucus originally and 2) are still active in the race for the nomination. But this only applies in the case that a candidate is no longer a candidate. A suspended campaign is still a campaign and the candidate it backs is still a candidate.
If Buttigieg and Klobuchar stay suspended then they have some control over the 33 delegate slots allocated them. More importantly, they would have some control over where their allocated slots do not go. Buttigieg, in his remarks when dropping out of the race, strongly hinted that he was not for a revolution of the sort for which Sanders is advocating. And Klobuchar is set to endorse Biden. If both remain suspended, then their statewide delegates would not be reallocated. And that reallocation would benefit Sanders the most in Iowa and New Hampshire. [Buttigieg won delegates in Nevada but they were district delegates and cannot be reallocated.]
While both candidates may retain some control over who gets selected, they do not have full control over any delegates selected to represent them. An endorsement like the one of Biden from Klobuchar may carry some weight with her handful of delegates, but that is not binding. Those delegates would not have to follow that instruction. They are free agents at the point they are selected.
So, no, 33 delegates is not really much more than a drop in the bucket, but with Super Tuesday looming, these distinctions above may matter a whole lot more if candidates like Bloomberg and Warren rack up some decent numbers of delegates. It could become a lot more consequential.
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 495 [90 at-large, 54 PLEOs, 271 congressional district, 80 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The biggest change in the Golden state since 2016 has been its position on the 2020 primary calendar. California's 2017 legislation to move the primary from its more traditional position on the first Tuesday in June to Super Tuesday in 2020 upended the presidential primary calendar. The change meant that an already delegate-rich date on any presidential primary calendar was getting an influx of more than 400 delegates, more than 10 percent of the total number of delegates and nearly a third of the pledged delegates available on Super Tuesday.
That is no small thing and more than anything was the catalyst for much of the early invisible primary chatter about how a potential crowded field of candidates combined with a more frontloaded calendar and proportional allocation rules could lead to an unresolved end to primary season in 2020. That may or may not come to pass, but definitely hinges on how many candidates crest above the 15 percent qualifying threshold and how consistently across not only the Super Tuesday states but through the contests on St. Patrick's Day as well.
The calendar change in California triggered one additional difference over 2016 for Democrats in the Golden state: a loss of bonus delegates. California Democrats lost their timing bonus (20 percent) by moving the primary from June to March. That translated to a loss of 46 district delegates and 15 at-large delegates. However, the 2020 California Democratic delegation gained one PLEO delegate and eight superdelegates compared to 2016.
[NOTE: PLEO delegates are a 15 percent add-on to the base delegation (at-large plus district delegates before any bonuses). California had more base delegates in the 2020 delegation than did the state in 2016. That accounts for the gain there.]
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
California's 271 congressional district delegates are split across 53 congressional districts and have some muted variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength California Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 6 delegates
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 5 delegates*
CD8 - 4 delegates
CD9 - 5 delegates*
CD10 - 4 delegates
CD11 - 6 delegates
CD12 - 7 delegates*
CD13 - 7 delegates*
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 6 delegates
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 6 delegates
CD19 - 6 delegates
CD20 - 5 delegates*
CD21 - 4 delegates
CD22 - 4 delegates
CD23 - 4 delegates
CD24 - 5 delegates*
CD25 - 5 delegates*
CD26 - 5 delegates*
CD27 - 5 delegates*
CD28 - 6 delegates
CD29 - 5 delegates*
CD30 - 6 delegates
CD31 - 5 delegates*
CD32 - 5 delegates*
CD33 - 6 delegates
CD34 - 5 delegates*
CD35 - 4 delegates
CD36 - 4 delegates
CD37 - 6 delegates
CD38 - 5 delegates*
CD39 - 5 delegates*
CD40 - 5 delegates*
CD41 - 5 delegates*
CD42 - 5 delegates*
CD43 - 5 delegates*
CD44 - 5 delegates*
CD45 - 5 delegates*
CD46 - 4 delegates
CD47 - 5 delegates*
CD48 - 5 delegates*
CD49 - 5 delegates*
CD50 - 4 delegates
CD51 - 5 delegates*
CD52 - 6 delegates
CD53 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. California has a total of 29 districts with odd numbers of delegates -- more than half -- and the range is just three delegates from a low of four delegates in a district (10 districts) to a high of seven (two districts). That is minimal variation compared to a number of other states.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 271 district delegates in California are chosen in April 19 caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves, rather than the state party. Any district delegate slots allocated to a candidate in the March 3 primary will be filled in elections the campaigns are charged with organizing. This has been the standard method of selection of district delegates in the Golden state, but it does add an organizational wrinkle in the selection process that does not exist in many other states. Campaigns that have either done this before (Sanders) or have staff who have been through the rigors of the California district delegate selection would theoretically have an advantage.
PLEO and then at-large delegates are selected on May 17 by a quorum of the district delegates chosen at the aforementioned caucuses in April.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the California statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 495 [90 at-large, 54 PLEOs, 271 congressional district, 80 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The biggest change in the Golden state since 2016 has been its position on the 2020 primary calendar. California's 2017 legislation to move the primary from its more traditional position on the first Tuesday in June to Super Tuesday in 2020 upended the presidential primary calendar. The change meant that an already delegate-rich date on any presidential primary calendar was getting an influx of more than 400 delegates, more than 10 percent of the total number of delegates and nearly a third of the pledged delegates available on Super Tuesday.
That is no small thing and more than anything was the catalyst for much of the early invisible primary chatter about how a potential crowded field of candidates combined with a more frontloaded calendar and proportional allocation rules could lead to an unresolved end to primary season in 2020. That may or may not come to pass, but definitely hinges on how many candidates crest above the 15 percent qualifying threshold and how consistently across not only the Super Tuesday states but through the contests on St. Patrick's Day as well.
The calendar change in California triggered one additional difference over 2016 for Democrats in the Golden state: a loss of bonus delegates. California Democrats lost their timing bonus (20 percent) by moving the primary from June to March. That translated to a loss of 46 district delegates and 15 at-large delegates. However, the 2020 California Democratic delegation gained one PLEO delegate and eight superdelegates compared to 2016.
[NOTE: PLEO delegates are a 15 percent add-on to the base delegation (at-large plus district delegates before any bonuses). California had more base delegates in the 2020 delegation than did the state in 2016. That accounts for the gain there.]
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
California's 271 congressional district delegates are split across 53 congressional districts and have some muted variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength California Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 6 delegates
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 5 delegates*
CD8 - 4 delegates
CD9 - 5 delegates*
CD10 - 4 delegates
CD11 - 6 delegates
CD12 - 7 delegates*
CD13 - 7 delegates*
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 6 delegates
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 6 delegates
CD19 - 6 delegates
CD20 - 5 delegates*
CD21 - 4 delegates
CD22 - 4 delegates
CD23 - 4 delegates
CD24 - 5 delegates*
CD25 - 5 delegates*
CD26 - 5 delegates*
CD27 - 5 delegates*
CD28 - 6 delegates
CD29 - 5 delegates*
CD30 - 6 delegates
CD31 - 5 delegates*
CD32 - 5 delegates*
CD33 - 6 delegates
CD34 - 5 delegates*
CD35 - 4 delegates
CD36 - 4 delegates
CD37 - 6 delegates
CD38 - 5 delegates*
CD39 - 5 delegates*
CD40 - 5 delegates*
CD41 - 5 delegates*
CD42 - 5 delegates*
CD43 - 5 delegates*
CD44 - 5 delegates*
CD45 - 5 delegates*
CD46 - 4 delegates
CD47 - 5 delegates*
CD48 - 5 delegates*
CD49 - 5 delegates*
CD50 - 4 delegates
CD51 - 5 delegates*
CD52 - 6 delegates
CD53 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates. California has a total of 29 districts with odd numbers of delegates -- more than half -- and the range is just three delegates from a low of four delegates in a district (10 districts) to a high of seven (two districts). That is minimal variation compared to a number of other states.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 271 district delegates in California are chosen in April 19 caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves, rather than the state party. Any district delegate slots allocated to a candidate in the March 3 primary will be filled in elections the campaigns are charged with organizing. This has been the standard method of selection of district delegates in the Golden state, but it does add an organizational wrinkle in the selection process that does not exist in many other states. Campaigns that have either done this before (Sanders) or have staff who have been through the rigors of the California district delegate selection would theoretically have an advantage.
PLEO and then at-large delegates are selected on May 17 by a quorum of the district delegates chosen at the aforementioned caucuses in April.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the California statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ARKANSAS
ARKANSAS
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 36 [7 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
While Arkansas retained its Super Tuesday position on the 2020 primary calendar, the Natural state took a circuitous route getting [back] there. Following the 2016 cycle, the law passed in 2015 to shift the Arkansas presidential primary from May to March expired. That reverted the primary to the late May date on which it has been scheduled throughout much of the post-reform era. But in 2019, the Arkansas legislature once again moved to reposition the Arkansas presidential primary for the 2020 cycle and beyond. The difference was that the legislation was passed and signed into law with no sunset clause, and the primary is scheduled for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March until the state legislature acts to change that.
One additional difference over 2016 is also that Arkansas lost one district delegate as the other categories' totals remained constant. But outside of that, much remains the same in 2020 as it was in 2016 in the Natural state.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Arkansas's 20 congressional district delegates are split across four congressional districts and have some muted variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Arkansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates [Jonesboro]
CD2 - 6 delegates [Little Rock]
CD3 - 5 delegates* [Hot Springs]
CD4 - 5 delegates* [Fayetteville]
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 31 pledged delegates in Arkansas will be selected at the state convention on May 30. District delegates will be chosen in district caucuses at the convention based on district results to the March primary while the full body will select both PLEO and then at-large delegates based on the statewide results.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late May when the Arkansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 36 [7 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
While Arkansas retained its Super Tuesday position on the 2020 primary calendar, the Natural state took a circuitous route getting [back] there. Following the 2016 cycle, the law passed in 2015 to shift the Arkansas presidential primary from May to March expired. That reverted the primary to the late May date on which it has been scheduled throughout much of the post-reform era. But in 2019, the Arkansas legislature once again moved to reposition the Arkansas presidential primary for the 2020 cycle and beyond. The difference was that the legislation was passed and signed into law with no sunset clause, and the primary is scheduled for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March until the state legislature acts to change that.
One additional difference over 2016 is also that Arkansas lost one district delegate as the other categories' totals remained constant. But outside of that, much remains the same in 2020 as it was in 2016 in the Natural state.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Arkansas's 20 congressional district delegates are split across four congressional districts and have some muted variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Arkansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates [Jonesboro]
CD2 - 6 delegates [Little Rock]
CD3 - 5 delegates* [Hot Springs]
CD4 - 5 delegates* [Fayetteville]
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 31 pledged delegates in Arkansas will be selected at the state convention on May 30. District delegates will be chosen in district caucuses at the convention based on district results to the March primary while the full body will select both PLEO and then at-large delegates based on the statewide results.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late May when the Arkansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: AMERICAN SAMOA
AMERICAN SAMOA
Election type: territorial caucuses
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 11 [6 at-large delegates, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional territory-wide
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: territorial caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Democrats in the American Samoa kept their Super Tuesday position on the 2020 primary calendar, keeping the territory on Super Tuesday for the fourth consecutive cycle. One difference over 2016 is that American Samoa gained one more superdelegate to bring the total delegation to 11. But the number of pledged delegates remained constant (under DNC rules for the territories), and outside of the additional superdelegate, much remains the same in 2020 as it was in 2016 in the Pacific territory.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies territory-wide for the allocation of the six at-large delegates.
Delegate allocation (at-large)
To win any at-large delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the territory-wide vote in the caucuses. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the allocation of those delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
There are no congressional districts or other subdivisions within the American Samoa and as such there are no district delegates to allocate in the March 3 caucuses.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The six at-large delegates to the national convention from American Samoa will be selected at the March 3 territory-wide caucuses. Delegate candidates are to have filed by March 3 and will be selected in proportion to the vote of qualifying candidates in the caucuses.
Election type: territorial caucuses
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 11 [6 at-large delegates, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional territory-wide
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: territorial caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Democrats in the American Samoa kept their Super Tuesday position on the 2020 primary calendar, keeping the territory on Super Tuesday for the fourth consecutive cycle. One difference over 2016 is that American Samoa gained one more superdelegate to bring the total delegation to 11. But the number of pledged delegates remained constant (under DNC rules for the territories), and outside of the additional superdelegate, much remains the same in 2020 as it was in 2016 in the Pacific territory.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies territory-wide for the allocation of the six at-large delegates.
Delegate allocation (at-large)
To win any at-large delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the territory-wide vote in the caucuses. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the allocation of those delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
There are no congressional districts or other subdivisions within the American Samoa and as such there are no district delegates to allocate in the March 3 caucuses.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The six at-large delegates to the national convention from American Samoa will be selected at the March 3 territory-wide caucuses. Delegate candidates are to have filed by March 3 and will be selected in proportion to the vote of qualifying candidates in the caucuses.
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