2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ILLINOIS

ILLINOIS

Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 182 [34 at-large, 20 PLEOs, 101 congressional district, 27 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

The Illinois primary for the third consecutive cycle -- and for the eleventh out of 12 post-reform cycles -- will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, Illinois will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona and Florida) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Land of Lincoln, Illinois Democrats will have the second most delegates at stake on March 17.

While the date of delegate allocation did not change, the Illinois Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates decreased by one district delegate, but gained three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were little to no changes in Illinois since 2016.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Illinois's 101 congressional district delegates are split across 18 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Illinois Democrats are using. The formula for apportioning delegates to congressional district in the Land of Lincoln is based on three equally weighted measures of Democratic support:

That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 5 delegates*
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 5 delegates*
CD14 - 5 delegates*
CD15 - 3 delegates*
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 4 delegates


*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
All 101 of the district delegates in Illinois will be elected on the March 17 primary ballot. Filing for ballot access closed on January 3, 2020. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary meetings to be scheduled within 30 days of the primary by the state committeeman and committeewoman from the congressional district. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on April 27 by quorum of national convention district delegates based on the statewide results in the primary.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late April when the Illinois statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.

Ohio Presidential Primary Postponed Until June 2

After a day of back and forth on Monday, March 16, the St. Patrick's Day Ohio presidential primary has been postponed until June 2, moving the election back 11 weeks on the presidential primary calendar.

With the threat of the spread of coronavirus spiking, both Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R-OH) asked an Ohio court for the authority to shift the primary election to June in order to minimize the potential for further community transmission. But the court rejected that plea later Monday only to have Governor DeWine have the Ohio health director order the polls closed on Tuesday. An early Tuesday morning challenge to that health order was rejected by the Ohio Supreme Court.

As it stands now, then, voters in Ohio will continue to be able to vote absentee in the consolidated primary election (including the presidential nomination races) and will have an in-person option on June 2. This is not the first time the Ohio presidential primary has been scheduled in June. There is a history there. The Ohio primary was on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in June in 1976, 1980 and again in 1992. There was even a period in 2011 when the Ohio presidential primary was scheduled for June as well because of redistricting uncertainty in the Buckeye state. [It was later shifted to Super Tuesday 2012 when the redistricting issues were resolved.]

But Ohio joins Georgia and Louisiana (and likely Puerto Rico) in changing their presidential primary dates amid the coronavirus crisis. However, Ohio followed a route to change that while it also involved the secretary of state (as in Georgia and Louisiana) also involved the courts in the state. That exchange had much to do with the timing. DeWine and LaRose were acting with much less time than Georgia and Louisiana were. The previously moved states had more of a window in which to act before their primaries occurred. In Ohio, it was only mere hours before the voting was set to commence that a final decision was made.

Given the way the Ohio Democratic delegate selection process works, however, that part of the delegate selection plan will not be affected all that much. District delegates were slated by the active campaigns back on January 7 in pre-primary district caucuses. In other words, all of the district delegate slots were filled by each campaign (or attempts were made in any event) then, and any allocated district delegate slots from the primary would be filled from those slates.

Whenever the primary is.

That minimizes the impact the primary change will have on the Democratic delegate selection process in Ohio. Furthermore, the statewide delegates -- PLEO and at-large delegates -- are not chosen in a caucus/convention process that would require repeated potential face-to-face gatherings over the next few months that would risk opening up participants to infection. Instead, it is the Ohio Democratic Party executive committee that is tasked in the party's delegate selection plan with selecting those delegates. That, too, minimizes to potential for further spread.

The only catch is that that statewide delegate selection is currently scheduled to take place on May 9. That would obviously precede the presidential primary on June 2. Either that May 9 meeting would be moved to after the presidential primary or slates of delegate candidates will be selected for each of the active campaigns at that point in May. Later, after the primary and allocation, those slots would be filled with people from those previously chosen slates.

But again, unlike other states, those are issues around which the Ohio Democratic Party can work without fear of any further repercussions from coronavirus.


--
The Ohio presidential primary date change has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.



--
Related Posts:
Ohio Legislature Unanimously Passes Bill to Transition to Absentee Vote-By-Mail in Presidential Primary

Tennessee Democrats Move to Remote Congressional District Conventions

Just under two weeks since the Tennessee presidential primary and a little more than a week since the county conventions in the Volunteer state, the coronavirus has stepped in to disrupt the delegate selection process there. 

District conventions were set to take place across the state this coming weekend on Saturday, March 21. County selectors, as they are called in Tennessee, were elected from respective presidential preference groups at the March 7 county conventions to attend the district conventions and select national convention delegates from those districts. 

That will still happen this weekend, but the Tennessee Democratic Party "out of an abundance of caution" has moved the process to a remote teleconferencing format in order to tamp down on the spread of the virus that is causing a wave of shut downs and cancelations across the country. 

Life has been greatly affected and that extends to the delegate selection process occurring quietly behind primaries and caucuses as they happen. Not many delegates have been selected yet, but the pace is getting ready to pick steam as the calendar turns to April. Tennessee joins South Carolina Democrats in making moves to limit in-person gatherings. Whether and to what extent other state parties react remains an open question at this point. But it is a developing story as the coronavirus situation evolves. 

--

Tennessee Democratic Party press release archived here.

Puerto Rico Democrats Signal Presidential Primary Date Change

The Puerto Rico Democratic Party on Saturday, March 14, in a press release indicated that the party is examining a presidential primary date change in the face of the coronavirus spread.

Just last August, the legislature in the island territory pushed the Democratic presidential primary up ten weeks to the last Sunday in March. But in an effort to blunt the spread of the pandemic coronavirus, Puerto Rico Democrats are reconsidering. And there are two options on the table, both of which would require legislative action to enact.

The first option (from the press release):

Seriously concerned about the welfare of voters and arguing that the safety of every citizen is paramount, (state party chair Charles) Rodriguez will request that the Presidential Primary Act be amended for the vote to take place on Sunday, April 26.

That change is simple enough. It would shift back the date of the primary by four weeks to April 26.

However, there is another contingency (also from the press release):

Otherwise, a second alternative in mind by the leader of the local Democrats is to allow the party to choose the date, in the event the situation caused by the coronavirus could also affect the primary in April.

Opting for the second plan could entail an even later Democratic primary in Puerto Rico. That could certainly push things later on the calendar into May. Another factor worth pointing out is that Puerto Rico Republicans are currently slated to have their own presidential primary on Sunday, June 7. Consolidating those two contests could save some money on the island and fall late enough on the calendar to be out of the danger zone for the spread of the virus.

One thing that would gird against any June primary that coincides with the Republican presidential primary is the delegate selection process Puerto Rico Democrats have laid out. District delegate candidates have already been made to file to appear on the March 29 ballot. That will not be affected by any primary date change. However, there is a state convention planned for May 31 where PLEO and at-large delegates will be selected. That could still happen with a June 7 primary by selecting a slate of PLEO and at-large delegates for any active candidates and then filling any slots allocated to those candidates in the primary from those slates after the results come in. That would be a logistically easier option than pushing back the date of the state convention.

Again, either option would require some intervention and action on the part of the legislature in the territory. That is a bit of a departure from the recent primary postponements in Georgia and Louisiana where secretaries of state acted under broad emergency powers afforded them either by law or by gubernatorial emergency declarations.

A similar trajectory may present itself in Puerto Rico at some point, but the early signals are that this presidential primary date change will take a path through the legislative process. And that will have to be expedited because the clock is ticking toward the March 29 date on which the primary is currently scheduled. There are now less than two weeks in which to act.


--
March 14 press release archived here.

South Carolina Democrats Call Audible on Delegate Selection with a Thumbs Up from the DNC

This is an important story out of South Carolina from the Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd.

Democrats in the Palmetto state had a primary on February 29 to allocate national convention delegate slots to the Democratic candidates still in the race at that time. Both former Vice President Biden and Vermont Senator Sanders qualified for delegates then.

And while that went smoothly enough in South Carolina before the tipping point in the coronavirus evolution in the United States, other Democratic state parties and other state officials have had to make adjustments to how they are conducting the delegate process. Georgia and Louisiana shifted back the dates of their respective primaries and Wyoming Democrats eliminated the in-person portion of their caucus process. But all those changes more directly affect the delegate allocation process.

What is happening under the surface of all the remaining primaries and caucuses is the delegate selection process, the process of actually filling the delegate slots allocated to the various candidates with actual human beings pledged to the candidates who won more than 15 percent of the vote in states and congressional districts across the country.

Typically, those selection processes happen in tiers of caucuses and conventions parallel to and often after the "first determining step" primaries and caucuses. Precinct meetings feed into county conventions and those select and send delegates to district and state conventions in some states. All those meetings tend to entail gatherings of enough people that would raise concerns about further community spread in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

That means that state parties are scrambling to come up with alternate plans for the multi-level selection processes. And South Carolina Democrats offer a glimpse into not only how state parties are responding to the concerns, but how the national party is being flexible in allowing state parties to act in order to carry out their delegate selection plans. In the face of likely poor turnout, the DNC has granted the South Carolina Democratic Party the ability to conduct precinct reorganization meetings (on March 14) and county conventions (held between March 20 and April 7) to be conducted virtually via Facebook Live, Skype, FaceTime or some other type of (online or otherwise) conference call.

That national party flexibility is warranted given all of the fallout from coronavirus and that all of this builds toward the district and state conventions to be held simultaneously in South Carolina on May 30.

But to be clear, this is not an issue that is unique to the Palmetto state. The selection process will be affected across the country and is a story to watch as the Covid 19 concerns evolve. The problem may not be unique and the state party response may not be either.

Georgia Postpones Presidential Primary, Consolidates with May Primaries

On Saturday, March 14 -- just ten days before the scheduled Georgia presidential primary -- Secretary of State Raffensperger (R) postponed the presidential primary in the Peach state due to concerns over the spread of Covid-19. Said Raffensperger:

Given these circumstances, I believe it is necessary and prudent to suspend in-person voting in the Presidential Preference Primary, and the local elections associated with them, and resume in-person voting for those elections as part of the already scheduled May 19 General Primary.

Georgia, then, will shift its presidential primary back from March 24 and consolidate it with the primary elections for other offices on May 19. The earlier Peach state presidential primary move from Super Tuesday in 2016 to the fourth Tuesday in March for 2020 already had shifted the Georgia primary to the latest point on the primary calendar since 1976. That is still true with the move to May, but the May 19 date represents the latest date on which Georgia has conducted a presidential primary in the post-reform era.

Importantly, Georgia voters will have options given the change. Those who have already cast early ballots for the previously scheduled March presidential primary will be able to vote again if they choose. But Georgia voters will also be able to let their previously cast early ballots count toward the May 19 presidential primary race if they want. That latter option would mean casting a vote in the presidential race but ceding down ballot votes for other offices.

Unlike Louisiana, which changed its primary date on Friday, the Georgia presidential primary moved back but stayed within the window established the national parties in which states can conduct primaries and caucuses without penalty. Like Louisiana, however, the move may not affect delegate allocation but may have an impact on delegate selection. District delegates were due to be selected at district caucuses on April 11 while at-large and PLEO delegates were set to be selected by the Georgia Democratic Party state central committee on May 16. Both obviously occur before the Georgia presidential primary now. The at-large and PLEO selection may not present a problem. It does not occur within the context of a large gathering, but happens much deeper into the calendar and potentially out of the time in which the coronavirus may be the most dangerous.

But the district caucuses to select congressional district delegates are much sooner in fall at a time on the calendar that overlaps with some other cancelations, postponements and delays that have occurred in the sports and culture worlds. Slates of delegates from each remaining active campaign can likely be chosen ahead of a primary. This happens often with states that have contests later in the calendar. Delegates are chosen from those slates once the primary has occurred and the allocation is clear. That is not a big issue, per se, but getting around the gatherings at scheduled April 11 district caucuses in a way that is consistent with tamping down on the spread of the coronavirus may present some problems for the Georgia Democratic Party.

--
The date of the Georgia primary has been changed on the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.



--
Related Posts:
Georgia Will Send Absentee Request Forms to All Active Voters for May 19 Primary

Georgia House Speaker Calls for Another Presidential Primary Move in the Peach State

Chorus for an Even Later Georgia Presidential Primary Grows

Wyoming Democrats Tweak Caucus Plan in the Face of Coronavirus Threat

The Wyoming Democratic Party on Friday, March 13 opted to alter the course of its delegate selection process for the 2020 Democratic presidential race, dropping the in-person portion of the party's April 4 caucuses.

In a statement, the party said...

Wyoming Democratic Party (WDP) Chair Joe M Barbuto has announced that the in-person portion of the 2020 Presidential Preference Caucus, as well as county conventions, are suspended due to growing concern over COVID-19. Our priority is ensuring that people are healthy and safe. Holding public events right now would put that in jeopardy, so this is the responsible course of action. ‍  

Voters are highly encouraged to vote by mail; as of now, voters may still vote via ballot pickup and drop off on March 28 and April 4. We will continue to work with public health officials, and assess local conditions, to ensure voters’ health and safety.  

The WDP is working with our partners around the state and nation to develop a plan that ensures necessary tasks and duties are achieved. Details will be released as they become available.

This change will shift the process to a mail-in option that was already built into the Wyoming Democratic Party delegate selection plan. And though the last day to register to vote in the caucuses (and receive a mail-in ballot) has passed (March 10), every registered Democrat in the state by that time was mailed a ballot. The last day to postmark those ballot for mail in is on March 20. Democrats in the Cowboy state will also have the option after that of dropping off those ballots mailed to them on either Saturday, March 28 or Saturday, April 4, the original date of the caucuses. There are at least two drop off locations in each county in Wyoming.

None of this will necessarily materially affect the delegate allocation process. Voters will still have options in terms of getting their votes submitted. But the change will impact the delegate selection process. The in-person caucuses would not only have served the purpose of being a part of the delegate allocation, but on choosing delegates to attend the state convention. It is those state convention delegates that were initially ultimately charged with selecting the national convention delegates. The state convention is still scheduled to occur on June 6.

But how state convention delegates will be selected remains a blank that will need to be filled in the coming days and weeks by the Wyoming Democratic Party likely working in concert with the DNC and the Rules and Bylaws Committee.


--
Related Posts:
Wyoming Democrats Shift Back Deadline to Have Mail-In Caucus Ballots in

Louisiana Shifts Presidential Primary Back to June 20 Amid Rising Coronavirus Concerns

Louisiana Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R) on Friday moved the planned presidential primary in the Pelican state from April 4 to June 20 as the reach of the coronavirus stretches beyond sports and culture into election administration. Ardoin made the change citing "emergency suspension or delays and rescheduling" of elections because of the possibility of an emergency or disaster.

While it is not unusual for plans to be finalized by state parties (in coordination with the national parties) for delegate selection processes in the year of a presidential nomination, it is unusual for state governments to make these types of changes. But then again, Covid-19 has, to understate things, made things unusual in 2020.

The biggest things here are that, first of all, the June 20 date falls outside of the window the DNC has established for state parties to conduct primaries or caucuses. That window closes on June 9, the second Tuesday in June. That deadline is why the District of Columbia Council changed the date of their third Tuesday in June primary in 2019; to comply with the DNC rules.

But secondly, the change also runs up against the logistics of delegate selection ahead of the convention. June 20 is the last date on which any states are selecting any delegates -- filling slots allocated to candidates through primaries and caucuses -- for the national convention on the Democratic side. It is one thing for the selection process to reach its conclusion just 23 days before the conventions gavels in. But it is another for the the state party in Louisiana to take results that may not be finalized on the day of the primary and then choose delegates based on those results. That would likely occur within three weeks of the convention.

That is late.

The Republican National Committee by comparison requires the delegate selection process to be completed by 45 days before the national convention. But the Republican National Convention does not begin until August 24, 65 days after the new June 20 Louisiana primary. The change in Pelican state does not defy that rule, but it does violate the Republican window that closes to contests on June 13, the second Saturday in June.

But again, this virus has thrust the world into uncharted territory and that now includes primary elections administration. The question now is whether Louisiana is the last or just the first state to make a change to their primary date as this situation evolves.


--
The Louisiana primary date will be changed on the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: FLORIDA

FLORIDA

Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 250 [47 at-large, 29 PLEOs, 143 congressional district, 31 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

The Florida primary for the second consecutive cycle will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, the Sunshine state will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona, Illinois and Ohio) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Sunshine state, Florida Democrats will have the most delegates at stake on March 17, the anchor of the third straight multi-contest Tuesday in March.

While the date of delegate allocation did not really change all that much, the Florida Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates increased by five, three district delegates, one PLEO delegate and one at-large delegate. Those gains in pledged delegates were somewhat offset by a loss of three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were minimal changes in Florida since 2016.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Florida's 143 congressional district delegates are split across 27 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Florida Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 3 delegates*
CD2 - 4 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 6 delegates
CD5 - 5 delegates*
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 6 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates
CD10 - 6 delegates
CD11 - 4 delegates
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 6 delegates
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 5 delegates*
CD16 - 6 delegates
CD17 - 4 delegates
CD18 - 5 delegates*
CD19 - 5 delegates*
CD20 - 7 delegates*
CD21 - 7 delegates*
CD22 - 7 delegates*
CD23 - 6 delegates
CD24 - 6 delegates
CD25 - 3 delegates*
CD26 - 5 delegates*
CD27 - 5 delegates*

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 143 district delegates in Florida are chosen at congressional district caucuses on April 4 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. PLEO delegates and then at-large delegates will be selected by a meeting of a quorum of district delegates on May 30.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late May when the Florida statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ARIZONA

ARIZONA

Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 80 [14 at-large, 9 PLEOs, 44 congressional district, 13 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Like Missouri, it may look like the Arizona primary shifted from 2016 to 2020, but it did not. Instead, that appearance is based on the language of the primary law in the Grand Canyon state. Moved from late February to late March for the 2016 cycle, the Arizona primary is set by law for the first Tuesday after March 15. Since March 15 fell on a Tuesday in 2016, the Arizona primary was a week late. But in 2020, the first Tuesday after March 15 is much closer to March 15. Just two days later in fact.

Additionally, there were also some changes to the Arizona delegation for 2020. As compared to 2016, Arizona Democrats lost six district delegates and two at-large delegates while gaining a couple of superdelegates. PLEO delegates maintained their 2016 level.

Other than in those two areas, very little changed in the delegate selection process for Arizona Democrats from four years ago.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Arizona's 44 congressional district delegates are split across nine congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Arizona Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 3 delegates*
CD5 - 5 delegates*
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 44 district delegates in Arizona are chosen at congressional district caucuses on April 28  by precinct committeepersons elected in August 2018 and the candidates for district delegate. PLEO delegates and then at-large delegates will be selected on May 16 by a quorum of the district delegates chosen in April.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-May when the Arizona statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.