The Puerto Rico legislative assembly acted quickly on the heels of a call from the Puerto Rico Democratic Party to change the date of the March 29 presidential primary on the island territory. Just two days after the request for a change from Democratic Party chair, Charles Rodriguez, the Senate introduced and passed a bill to push back the date of the Puerto Rico Democratic primary to minimize the potential for further spread of the coronavirus.
The bill -- S 488 -- would shift the Democratic primary from Sunday, March 29 to the last Sunday in April, April 26. But what was presented as an alternative path for the primary was also included in this legislation on top of the change to April 26. Should that date not get the election out of harm's way, then the state Elections Commission in consultation with the chair of the Democratic Party would select an alternative date for the contest.
Again, an even later date would not necessarily interfere with the Puerto Rico Democratic Party delegate selection plan as it is constructed for delegate selection. District delegate candidates will be listed on the ballot whenever the election is held. And a May 31 state convention is scheduled to select PLEO and at-large delegates. It is only if the election is pushed past that point that a change would run afoul of the selection process set forth in the party's delegate selection plan.
S 488 now moves on to the House for its consideration. The Puerto Rico Democratic primary remains set for just ten days from now.
--
Related Posts:
Governor Vazquez's Signature Pushes Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary Back a Month
Thursday, March 19, 2020
June 2 Presidential Primary Date Grows with Addition of Connecticut
Connecticut state officials including Governor Ned Lamont (D) and Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D) on Thursday, March 19 opted to push back the primary in the Nutmeg state to June 2.
Like Maryland two days earlier, the Connecticut presidential primary moves back five weeks from April 28 and joins a group of states with enough delegates at stake to now become the second-most delegate-rich state on the 2020 presidential primary calendar. For a state that first started conducting presidential primaries -- rather than caucuses -- in 1980, this is the latest Connecticut will have conducted a primary in the post-reform era. A Connecticut primary was never later than March until after the 2008 cycle, when the primary was shifted to the late April position it had occupied from 2012-2020 until today.
In moving the primary, Connecticut becomes the latest state to respond to the rise of the coronavirus threat by delaying its presidential primary. That number has now expanded to six -- Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohio -- and is likely to increase further in the coming days.
And like the other states, the change will have some effect on not only the timing of the delegate allocation from Connecticut but also the delegate selection process there. Connecticut Democrats are one of the few states that select district delegates in district caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves. That is a burden on campaigns in normal circumstances much less when the primary date is moving around. Those campaigns-organized district caucuses were to have taken place on May 27, nearly a month after the initial primary date, April 28. But with a June 2 primary, that may create an obstacle for the state party: move ahead with the delegate selection at that time and select slates of delegate candidates to fill any allocated slots won during the June 2 primary or delay that selection of district delegates until after the primary.
The statewide delegates will present fewer problems. PLEO and at-large delegates are scheduled to be selected by the state party committee -- and not any state convention or quorum of district delegates -- on June 10. That is a late enough point of selection to fall after the new early June primary date. And June 10 may also serve as a reasonable point on the delegate selection calendar to which to shift the district caucuses to select district delegates.
Regardless, the June 2 date not only keeps Connecticut in compliance with national party rules, but it allows the party some latitude in how to reformulate the delegate selection process.
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The new Connecticut presidential primary date has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
Like Maryland two days earlier, the Connecticut presidential primary moves back five weeks from April 28 and joins a group of states with enough delegates at stake to now become the second-most delegate-rich state on the 2020 presidential primary calendar. For a state that first started conducting presidential primaries -- rather than caucuses -- in 1980, this is the latest Connecticut will have conducted a primary in the post-reform era. A Connecticut primary was never later than March until after the 2008 cycle, when the primary was shifted to the late April position it had occupied from 2012-2020 until today.
In moving the primary, Connecticut becomes the latest state to respond to the rise of the coronavirus threat by delaying its presidential primary. That number has now expanded to six -- Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland and Ohio -- and is likely to increase further in the coming days.
And like the other states, the change will have some effect on not only the timing of the delegate allocation from Connecticut but also the delegate selection process there. Connecticut Democrats are one of the few states that select district delegates in district caucuses organized by the campaigns themselves. That is a burden on campaigns in normal circumstances much less when the primary date is moving around. Those campaigns-organized district caucuses were to have taken place on May 27, nearly a month after the initial primary date, April 28. But with a June 2 primary, that may create an obstacle for the state party: move ahead with the delegate selection at that time and select slates of delegate candidates to fill any allocated slots won during the June 2 primary or delay that selection of district delegates until after the primary.
The statewide delegates will present fewer problems. PLEO and at-large delegates are scheduled to be selected by the state party committee -- and not any state convention or quorum of district delegates -- on June 10. That is a late enough point of selection to fall after the new early June primary date. And June 10 may also serve as a reasonable point on the delegate selection calendar to which to shift the district caucuses to select district delegates.
Regardless, the June 2 date not only keeps Connecticut in compliance with national party rules, but it allows the party some latitude in how to reformulate the delegate selection process.
--
The new Connecticut presidential primary date has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
Rhode Island Moving Toward Presidential Primary Date Change
Another April 28 primary state may be on the move.
The Rhode Island state Board of Elections voted 6-1 on Tuesday, March 17 to recommend to Governor Gina Raimondo (D) delaying the presidential primary in the Ocean state and scheduling it for June 2. The impetus for the change was the threat of further spread of coronavirus, but the Board also argued that the potential delay would allow them more time to better prepare for a possible all-mail ballot, something that Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) argued for in a letter to the Board.
The one dissenting vote on the Board sided with Gorbea on not only to shifting to an all-mail ballot but to continue with the April 28 date. Gorbea cited concerns about the date change's impact on the preparations for the September primary for other offices and the general election.
But for the time being it appears as if Rhode Island will be on the move. Legal counsel for the Board was preparing a draft emergency executive order for the governor to issue to override the state law.
--
This would be the latest the Rhode Island presidential primary has fallen on the calendar since the early cycles of the post-reform era. The Ocean state primary was on the very same first Tuesday in June date for both the 1976 and 1980 cycles before moving into March for 1984.
The Rhode Island state Board of Elections voted 6-1 on Tuesday, March 17 to recommend to Governor Gina Raimondo (D) delaying the presidential primary in the Ocean state and scheduling it for June 2. The impetus for the change was the threat of further spread of coronavirus, but the Board also argued that the potential delay would allow them more time to better prepare for a possible all-mail ballot, something that Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) argued for in a letter to the Board.
The one dissenting vote on the Board sided with Gorbea on not only to shifting to an all-mail ballot but to continue with the April 28 date. Gorbea cited concerns about the date change's impact on the preparations for the September primary for other offices and the general election.
But for the time being it appears as if Rhode Island will be on the move. Legal counsel for the Board was preparing a draft emergency executive order for the governor to issue to override the state law.
--
This would be the latest the Rhode Island presidential primary has fallen on the calendar since the early cycles of the post-reform era. The Ocean state primary was on the very same first Tuesday in June date for both the 1976 and 1980 cycles before moving into March for 1984.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Maryland Joins States Pushing Back Presidential Primaries on the Calendar
Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) on Tuesday, March 17 issued a proclamation that among other things postponed the presidential primary in the Old Line state, shifting the date from April 28 back five weeks to June 2. It will be the latest a presidential primary has been conducted in Maryland in the post-reform era and the latest a Maryland presidential primary has been held since before the state joined Super Tuesday for the 1988 cycle.
Hogan's decision throws Maryland into a growing number of states acting in response to the budding coronavirus threat. Five states now including Maryland -- Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Ohio -- have moved in recent days to delay their presidential primaries, shifting back anywhere from 35 to 77 days to avoid the window in which voters may be hunkered down at home in an effort to not spread the virus.
Unlike Kentucky and Louisiana, however, the decision in Maryland avoided running afoul of the national party rules on the timing of primaries and caucuses. While those two contests are technically too late according to those rules, the Maryland primary will fall on the last big day on which contests will be held, June 2, a week before the window closes under Democratic Party rules.
The change in the Old Line state will have some impact on the delegate selection process, but it will be pretty minimal. District delegate candidates are listed and directly elected on the primary ballot. That process, then, will move with the primary. Fortunately, Maryland is not one of the states where a quorum of district delegates is responsible for selecting at-large and PLEO delegates. Instead, it is the state central committee of the Maryland Democratic Party that makes those decisions.
However, that selection is set to take place on May 30, the weekend before the new date of the presidential primary. That leaves the state party with some options. The state party will forge ahead and select slates of at-large and PLEO delegate candidates for each remaining candidate on May 30 and fill any allocated slots after the primary. Alternatively, the party could shift back a week -- or some time after the new primary date -- and select those statewide delegates with the result of the primary in mind. Either way, this is a question that Maryland Democrats will have to answer in the coming days in the lead up to the June primary. But with no caucus/convention process to select delegates, Maryland Democrats emerge from this change with a limited number of process questions.
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Maryland proclamation postponing the presidential primary there is archived here.
--
Related Posts:
Maryland Board of Elections Will Recommend an All Vote-By-Mail Presidential Primary for June 2
Hogan's decision throws Maryland into a growing number of states acting in response to the budding coronavirus threat. Five states now including Maryland -- Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Ohio -- have moved in recent days to delay their presidential primaries, shifting back anywhere from 35 to 77 days to avoid the window in which voters may be hunkered down at home in an effort to not spread the virus.
Unlike Kentucky and Louisiana, however, the decision in Maryland avoided running afoul of the national party rules on the timing of primaries and caucuses. While those two contests are technically too late according to those rules, the Maryland primary will fall on the last big day on which contests will be held, June 2, a week before the window closes under Democratic Party rules.
The change in the Old Line state will have some impact on the delegate selection process, but it will be pretty minimal. District delegate candidates are listed and directly elected on the primary ballot. That process, then, will move with the primary. Fortunately, Maryland is not one of the states where a quorum of district delegates is responsible for selecting at-large and PLEO delegates. Instead, it is the state central committee of the Maryland Democratic Party that makes those decisions.
However, that selection is set to take place on May 30, the weekend before the new date of the presidential primary. That leaves the state party with some options. The state party will forge ahead and select slates of at-large and PLEO delegate candidates for each remaining candidate on May 30 and fill any allocated slots after the primary. Alternatively, the party could shift back a week -- or some time after the new primary date -- and select those statewide delegates with the result of the primary in mind. Either way, this is a question that Maryland Democrats will have to answer in the coming days in the lead up to the June primary. But with no caucus/convention process to select delegates, Maryland Democrats emerge from this change with a limited number of process questions.
--
Maryland proclamation postponing the presidential primary there is archived here.
--
Related Posts:
Maryland Board of Elections Will Recommend an All Vote-By-Mail Presidential Primary for June 2
Kentucky Shifts Mid-May Primary to Late June in Response to Coronavirus
Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) on Monday, March 16 "exercising an emergency power granted to his Office under Kentucky law ... formally recommended to Governor Andy Beshear (D) that the elections scheduled for May 19 ... be delayed [until] June 23"
Beshear concurred with the recommendation and the primary in the Bluegrass state was shifted back five weeks to late June.
Yes, this is another coronavirus-related calendar change, but it is a move that brings with it some risks for the Kentucky Democratic Party. First of all, like Louisiana, the change positions the Kentucky primary outside of the rules-mandated window in which primaries and caucuses can occur in either party. The cut-off on the Democratic side is June 9, so a primary two weeks later in Kentucky opens the Democratic state party there to the penalties associated with a timing violation: a 50 percentage reduction in the national convention delegation to the national convention. And this is something the Democratic National Committee has raised as a warning.
And there are at least a couple of reasons for that.
One is that a June 23 primary in Kentucky comes just 20 days before the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to gavel in. That is a potential logistical nightmare for not only the credentialing process for the convention, but also the Kentucky Democratic Party and the delegates that will represent the state at the convention.
But couple that possible credentialing issue with the process of actually filling any delegate slots allocated to candidates in the June 23 Kentucky primary. That selection process as laid out in the Kentucky Democratic Party delegate selection plan was to have followed the May 19 primary. State legislative district caucuses were to have taken place on May 30 to elect delegates to the June 6 state convention where national convention delegates would be chosen.
On the one hand, keeping that same sequence -- a primary to allocate delegates completely followed by a caucus/convention process to select delegates -- is likely impossible with a June 23 primary. The last date on which any delegate selection occurs on the Democratic side this cycle is Saturday, June 20. The primary, then, comes after that and any caucus/convention process thereafter would run even closer to the start of the scheduled national convention in Milwaukee.
But on the other hand, a June 23 primary may be marginally workable if the Kentucky Democratic Party maintains the same selection sequence but have it precede the primary. In other words, rather than filling specific delegate slots for particular candidates at a state convention after the now potentially too late primary, the state party can continue with the caucus/convention process as scheduled and slate full groups of delegate candidate for any active candidate at that point. Then, the party could quickly take the results of the primaries and fill delegates slots allocated based on the primary results from those previously selected candidate slates.
No, that does not completely resolve all of the issues with such a late primary, but it would potentially mitigate some of the issues. After all, a number of states with late primaries conduct selection processes before their primaries by design with these very issues in mind.
--
As a coda, there are couple of other notes. First, it should be added that the June 23 date Kentucky has chosen also violates the Republican National Committee rules on timing. June 13 is the Republican cut-off. That said, with an August convention, the RNC has a bit more latitude on this than does the DNC with a mid-July convention scheduled. Kentucky Republicans could still complete the delegate selection process in a timely enough manner to make thing work with that August convention start point.
The other thing to consider in the context of any Democratic penalties for scheduling the primary too late is that the rules do provide the state parties some cover. But it is unlikely to apply in either Kentucky's or Louisiana's cases. In both instances Republican secretaries of state acted to delay the primaries and schedule them for points on the calendar that are in violation of the national party rules. Normally, that would help a Democratic state party avoid sanction from the national party. A change made by someone of the opposite party is out of the hands of any state party.
But in both of these cases -- Kentucky and Louisiana -- Democratic governors had to and did sign off on the date changes. In other words, a Democratic official was involved in the change. It was this sort of conflict that helped sink Florida Democrats in 2008 when the Sunshine state moved to hold its primary to a position too early under the rules. The Republican-controlled Florida legislature passed the bill to move the primary and it was signed into law by a Republican governor. But Democrats in the legislature voted for the change too. The result? An initial 100 percent reduction in the Florida delegation.
Kentucky and Louisiana may not get that level of punishment given the circumstances, but they may be levied the 50 percent reduction called for in the DNC rules.
--
Kentucky secretary of state press release on the primary move archived here.
Beshear concurred with the recommendation and the primary in the Bluegrass state was shifted back five weeks to late June.
Yes, this is another coronavirus-related calendar change, but it is a move that brings with it some risks for the Kentucky Democratic Party. First of all, like Louisiana, the change positions the Kentucky primary outside of the rules-mandated window in which primaries and caucuses can occur in either party. The cut-off on the Democratic side is June 9, so a primary two weeks later in Kentucky opens the Democratic state party there to the penalties associated with a timing violation: a 50 percentage reduction in the national convention delegation to the national convention. And this is something the Democratic National Committee has raised as a warning.
And there are at least a couple of reasons for that.
One is that a June 23 primary in Kentucky comes just 20 days before the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to gavel in. That is a potential logistical nightmare for not only the credentialing process for the convention, but also the Kentucky Democratic Party and the delegates that will represent the state at the convention.
But couple that possible credentialing issue with the process of actually filling any delegate slots allocated to candidates in the June 23 Kentucky primary. That selection process as laid out in the Kentucky Democratic Party delegate selection plan was to have followed the May 19 primary. State legislative district caucuses were to have taken place on May 30 to elect delegates to the June 6 state convention where national convention delegates would be chosen.
On the one hand, keeping that same sequence -- a primary to allocate delegates completely followed by a caucus/convention process to select delegates -- is likely impossible with a June 23 primary. The last date on which any delegate selection occurs on the Democratic side this cycle is Saturday, June 20. The primary, then, comes after that and any caucus/convention process thereafter would run even closer to the start of the scheduled national convention in Milwaukee.
But on the other hand, a June 23 primary may be marginally workable if the Kentucky Democratic Party maintains the same selection sequence but have it precede the primary. In other words, rather than filling specific delegate slots for particular candidates at a state convention after the now potentially too late primary, the state party can continue with the caucus/convention process as scheduled and slate full groups of delegate candidate for any active candidate at that point. Then, the party could quickly take the results of the primaries and fill delegates slots allocated based on the primary results from those previously selected candidate slates.
No, that does not completely resolve all of the issues with such a late primary, but it would potentially mitigate some of the issues. After all, a number of states with late primaries conduct selection processes before their primaries by design with these very issues in mind.
--
As a coda, there are couple of other notes. First, it should be added that the June 23 date Kentucky has chosen also violates the Republican National Committee rules on timing. June 13 is the Republican cut-off. That said, with an August convention, the RNC has a bit more latitude on this than does the DNC with a mid-July convention scheduled. Kentucky Republicans could still complete the delegate selection process in a timely enough manner to make thing work with that August convention start point.
The other thing to consider in the context of any Democratic penalties for scheduling the primary too late is that the rules do provide the state parties some cover. But it is unlikely to apply in either Kentucky's or Louisiana's cases. In both instances Republican secretaries of state acted to delay the primaries and schedule them for points on the calendar that are in violation of the national party rules. Normally, that would help a Democratic state party avoid sanction from the national party. A change made by someone of the opposite party is out of the hands of any state party.
But in both of these cases -- Kentucky and Louisiana -- Democratic governors had to and did sign off on the date changes. In other words, a Democratic official was involved in the change. It was this sort of conflict that helped sink Florida Democrats in 2008 when the Sunshine state moved to hold its primary to a position too early under the rules. The Republican-controlled Florida legislature passed the bill to move the primary and it was signed into law by a Republican governor. But Democrats in the legislature voted for the change too. The result? An initial 100 percent reduction in the Florida delegation.
Kentucky and Louisiana may not get that level of punishment given the circumstances, but they may be levied the 50 percent reduction called for in the DNC rules.
--
Kentucky secretary of state press release on the primary move archived here.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS
Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 182 [34 at-large, 20 PLEOs, 101 congressional district, 27 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Illinois primary for the third consecutive cycle -- and for the eleventh out of 12 post-reform cycles -- will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, Illinois will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona and Florida) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Land of Lincoln, Illinois Democrats will have the second most delegates at stake on March 17.
While the date of delegate allocation did not change, the Illinois Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates decreased by one district delegate, but gained three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were little to no changes in Illinois since 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Illinois's 101 congressional district delegates are split across 18 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Illinois Democrats are using. The formula for apportioning delegates to congressional district in the Land of Lincoln is based on three equally weighted measures of Democratic support:
That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 5 delegates*
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 5 delegates*
CD14 - 5 delegates*
CD15 - 3 delegates*
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 101 of the district delegates in Illinois will be elected on the March 17 primary ballot. Filing for ballot access closed on January 3, 2020. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary meetings to be scheduled within 30 days of the primary by the state committeeman and committeewoman from the congressional district. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on April 27 by quorum of national convention district delegates based on the statewide results in the primary.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late April when the Illinois statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.
Election type: primary
Date: March 17
Number of delegates: 182 [34 at-large, 20 PLEOs, 101 congressional district, 27 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Illinois primary for the third consecutive cycle -- and for the eleventh out of 12 post-reform cycles -- will fall on the third Tuesday in March, a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday. But in 2020, Illinois will be joined on the middle Tuesday in March by a different group of states (Arizona and Florida) in the Democratic process. Regardless of the calendar changes around the Land of Lincoln, Illinois Democrats will have the second most delegates at stake on March 17.
While the date of delegate allocation did not change, the Illinois Democratic delegation only marginally changed from 2016 to 2020. However, the number of pledged delegates decreased by one district delegate, but gained three superdelegates. On the whole, though, there were little to no changes in Illinois since 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Illinois's 101 congressional district delegates are split across 18 congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Illinois Democrats are using. The formula for apportioning delegates to congressional district in the Land of Lincoln is based on three equally weighted measures of Democratic support:
That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 6 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 8 delegates
CD10 - 5 delegates*
CD11 - 5 delegates*
CD12 - 5 delegates*
CD13 - 5 delegates*
CD14 - 5 delegates*
CD15 - 3 delegates*
CD16 - 4 delegates
CD17 - 5 delegates*
CD18 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 101 of the district delegates in Illinois will be elected on the March 17 primary ballot. Filing for ballot access closed on January 3, 2020. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary meetings to be scheduled within 30 days of the primary by the state committeeman and committeewoman from the congressional district. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on April 27 by quorum of national convention district delegates based on the statewide results in the primary.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late April when the Illinois statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.
Ohio Presidential Primary Postponed Until June 2
After a day of back and forth on Monday, March 16, the St. Patrick's Day Ohio presidential primary has been postponed until June 2, moving the election back 11 weeks on the presidential primary calendar.
With the threat of the spread of coronavirus spiking, both Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R-OH) asked an Ohio court for the authority to shift the primary election to June in order to minimize the potential for further community transmission. But the court rejected that plea later Monday only to have Governor DeWine have the Ohio health director order the polls closed on Tuesday. An early Tuesday morning challenge to that health order was rejected by the Ohio Supreme Court.
As it stands now, then, voters in Ohio will continue to be able to vote absentee in the consolidated primary election (including the presidential nomination races) and will have an in-person option on June 2. This is not the first time the Ohio presidential primary has been scheduled in June. There is a history there. The Ohio primary was on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in June in 1976, 1980 and again in 1992. There was even a period in 2011 when the Ohio presidential primary was scheduled for June as well because of redistricting uncertainty in the Buckeye state. [It was later shifted to Super Tuesday 2012 when the redistricting issues were resolved.]
But Ohio joins Georgia and Louisiana (and likely Puerto Rico) in changing their presidential primary dates amid the coronavirus crisis. However, Ohio followed a route to change that while it also involved the secretary of state (as in Georgia and Louisiana) also involved the courts in the state. That exchange had much to do with the timing. DeWine and LaRose were acting with much less time than Georgia and Louisiana were. The previously moved states had more of a window in which to act before their primaries occurred. In Ohio, it was only mere hours before the voting was set to commence that a final decision was made.
Given the way the Ohio Democratic delegate selection process works, however, that part of the delegate selection plan will not be affected all that much. District delegates were slated by the active campaigns back on January 7 in pre-primary district caucuses. In other words, all of the district delegate slots were filled by each campaign (or attempts were made in any event) then, and any allocated district delegate slots from the primary would be filled from those slates.
Whenever the primary is.
That minimizes the impact the primary change will have on the Democratic delegate selection process in Ohio. Furthermore, the statewide delegates -- PLEO and at-large delegates -- are not chosen in a caucus/convention process that would require repeated potential face-to-face gatherings over the next few months that would risk opening up participants to infection. Instead, it is the Ohio Democratic Party executive committee that is tasked in the party's delegate selection plan with selecting those delegates. That, too, minimizes to potential for further spread.
The only catch is that that statewide delegate selection is currently scheduled to take place on May 9. That would obviously precede the presidential primary on June 2. Either that May 9 meeting would be moved to after the presidential primary or slates of delegate candidates will be selected for each of the active campaigns at that point in May. Later, after the primary and allocation, those slots would be filled with people from those previously chosen slates.
But again, unlike other states, those are issues around which the Ohio Democratic Party can work without fear of any further repercussions from coronavirus.
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The Ohio presidential primary date change has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
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Related Posts:
Ohio Legislature Unanimously Passes Bill to Transition to Absentee Vote-By-Mail in Presidential Primary
With the threat of the spread of coronavirus spiking, both Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R-OH) asked an Ohio court for the authority to shift the primary election to June in order to minimize the potential for further community transmission. But the court rejected that plea later Monday only to have Governor DeWine have the Ohio health director order the polls closed on Tuesday. An early Tuesday morning challenge to that health order was rejected by the Ohio Supreme Court.
As it stands now, then, voters in Ohio will continue to be able to vote absentee in the consolidated primary election (including the presidential nomination races) and will have an in-person option on June 2. This is not the first time the Ohio presidential primary has been scheduled in June. There is a history there. The Ohio primary was on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in June in 1976, 1980 and again in 1992. There was even a period in 2011 when the Ohio presidential primary was scheduled for June as well because of redistricting uncertainty in the Buckeye state. [It was later shifted to Super Tuesday 2012 when the redistricting issues were resolved.]
But Ohio joins Georgia and Louisiana (and likely Puerto Rico) in changing their presidential primary dates amid the coronavirus crisis. However, Ohio followed a route to change that while it also involved the secretary of state (as in Georgia and Louisiana) also involved the courts in the state. That exchange had much to do with the timing. DeWine and LaRose were acting with much less time than Georgia and Louisiana were. The previously moved states had more of a window in which to act before their primaries occurred. In Ohio, it was only mere hours before the voting was set to commence that a final decision was made.
Given the way the Ohio Democratic delegate selection process works, however, that part of the delegate selection plan will not be affected all that much. District delegates were slated by the active campaigns back on January 7 in pre-primary district caucuses. In other words, all of the district delegate slots were filled by each campaign (or attempts were made in any event) then, and any allocated district delegate slots from the primary would be filled from those slates.
Whenever the primary is.
That minimizes the impact the primary change will have on the Democratic delegate selection process in Ohio. Furthermore, the statewide delegates -- PLEO and at-large delegates -- are not chosen in a caucus/convention process that would require repeated potential face-to-face gatherings over the next few months that would risk opening up participants to infection. Instead, it is the Ohio Democratic Party executive committee that is tasked in the party's delegate selection plan with selecting those delegates. That, too, minimizes to potential for further spread.
The only catch is that that statewide delegate selection is currently scheduled to take place on May 9. That would obviously precede the presidential primary on June 2. Either that May 9 meeting would be moved to after the presidential primary or slates of delegate candidates will be selected for each of the active campaigns at that point in May. Later, after the primary and allocation, those slots would be filled with people from those previously chosen slates.
But again, unlike other states, those are issues around which the Ohio Democratic Party can work without fear of any further repercussions from coronavirus.
--
The Ohio presidential primary date change has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Related Posts:
Ohio Legislature Unanimously Passes Bill to Transition to Absentee Vote-By-Mail in Presidential Primary
Monday, March 16, 2020
Tennessee Democrats Move to Remote Congressional District Conventions
Just under two weeks since the Tennessee presidential primary and a little more than a week since the county conventions in the Volunteer state, the coronavirus has stepped in to disrupt the delegate selection process there.
District conventions were set to take place across the state this coming weekend on Saturday, March 21. County selectors, as they are called in Tennessee, were elected from respective presidential preference groups at the March 7 county conventions to attend the district conventions and select national convention delegates from those districts.
That will still happen this weekend, but the Tennessee Democratic Party "out of an abundance of caution" has moved the process to a remote teleconferencing format in order to tamp down on the spread of the virus that is causing a wave of shut downs and cancelations across the country.
Life has been greatly affected and that extends to the delegate selection process occurring quietly behind primaries and caucuses as they happen. Not many delegates have been selected yet, but the pace is getting ready to pick steam as the calendar turns to April. Tennessee joins South Carolina Democrats in making moves to limit in-person gatherings. Whether and to what extent other state parties react remains an open question at this point. But it is a developing story as the coronavirus situation evolves.
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Puerto Rico Democrats Signal Presidential Primary Date Change
The Puerto Rico Democratic Party on Saturday, March 14, in a press release indicated that the party is examining a presidential primary date change in the face of the coronavirus spread.
Just last August, the legislature in the island territory pushed the Democratic presidential primary up ten weeks to the last Sunday in March. But in an effort to blunt the spread of the pandemic coronavirus, Puerto Rico Democrats are reconsidering. And there are two options on the table, both of which would require legislative action to enact.
The first option (from the press release):
However, there is another contingency (also from the press release):
One thing that would gird against any June primary that coincides with the Republican presidential primary is the delegate selection process Puerto Rico Democrats have laid out. District delegate candidates have already been made to file to appear on the March 29 ballot. That will not be affected by any primary date change. However, there is a state convention planned for May 31 where PLEO and at-large delegates will be selected. That could still happen with a June 7 primary by selecting a slate of PLEO and at-large delegates for any active candidates and then filling any slots allocated to those candidates in the primary from those slates after the results come in. That would be a logistically easier option than pushing back the date of the state convention.
Again, either option would require some intervention and action on the part of the legislature in the territory. That is a bit of a departure from the recent primary postponements in Georgia and Louisiana where secretaries of state acted under broad emergency powers afforded them either by law or by gubernatorial emergency declarations.
A similar trajectory may present itself in Puerto Rico at some point, but the early signals are that this presidential primary date change will take a path through the legislative process. And that will have to be expedited because the clock is ticking toward the March 29 date on which the primary is currently scheduled. There are now less than two weeks in which to act.
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March 14 press release archived here.
Just last August, the legislature in the island territory pushed the Democratic presidential primary up ten weeks to the last Sunday in March. But in an effort to blunt the spread of the pandemic coronavirus, Puerto Rico Democrats are reconsidering. And there are two options on the table, both of which would require legislative action to enact.
The first option (from the press release):
Seriously concerned about the welfare of voters and arguing that the safety of every citizen is paramount, (state party chair Charles) Rodriguez will request that the Presidential Primary Act be amended for the vote to take place on Sunday, April 26.That change is simple enough. It would shift back the date of the primary by four weeks to April 26.
However, there is another contingency (also from the press release):
Otherwise, a second alternative in mind by the leader of the local Democrats is to allow the party to choose the date, in the event the situation caused by the coronavirus could also affect the primary in April.Opting for the second plan could entail an even later Democratic primary in Puerto Rico. That could certainly push things later on the calendar into May. Another factor worth pointing out is that Puerto Rico Republicans are currently slated to have their own presidential primary on Sunday, June 7. Consolidating those two contests could save some money on the island and fall late enough on the calendar to be out of the danger zone for the spread of the virus.
One thing that would gird against any June primary that coincides with the Republican presidential primary is the delegate selection process Puerto Rico Democrats have laid out. District delegate candidates have already been made to file to appear on the March 29 ballot. That will not be affected by any primary date change. However, there is a state convention planned for May 31 where PLEO and at-large delegates will be selected. That could still happen with a June 7 primary by selecting a slate of PLEO and at-large delegates for any active candidates and then filling any slots allocated to those candidates in the primary from those slates after the results come in. That would be a logistically easier option than pushing back the date of the state convention.
Again, either option would require some intervention and action on the part of the legislature in the territory. That is a bit of a departure from the recent primary postponements in Georgia and Louisiana where secretaries of state acted under broad emergency powers afforded them either by law or by gubernatorial emergency declarations.
A similar trajectory may present itself in Puerto Rico at some point, but the early signals are that this presidential primary date change will take a path through the legislative process. And that will have to be expedited because the clock is ticking toward the March 29 date on which the primary is currently scheduled. There are now less than two weeks in which to act.
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March 14 press release archived here.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
South Carolina Democrats Call Audible on Delegate Selection with a Thumbs Up from the DNC
This is an important story out of South Carolina from the Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd.
Democrats in the Palmetto state had a primary on February 29 to allocate national convention delegate slots to the Democratic candidates still in the race at that time. Both former Vice President Biden and Vermont Senator Sanders qualified for delegates then.
And while that went smoothly enough in South Carolina before the tipping point in the coronavirus evolution in the United States, other Democratic state parties and other state officials have had to make adjustments to how they are conducting the delegate process. Georgia and Louisiana shifted back the dates of their respective primaries and Wyoming Democrats eliminated the in-person portion of their caucus process. But all those changes more directly affect the delegate allocation process.
What is happening under the surface of all the remaining primaries and caucuses is the delegate selection process, the process of actually filling the delegate slots allocated to the various candidates with actual human beings pledged to the candidates who won more than 15 percent of the vote in states and congressional districts across the country.
Typically, those selection processes happen in tiers of caucuses and conventions parallel to and often after the "first determining step" primaries and caucuses. Precinct meetings feed into county conventions and those select and send delegates to district and state conventions in some states. All those meetings tend to entail gatherings of enough people that would raise concerns about further community spread in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
That means that state parties are scrambling to come up with alternate plans for the multi-level selection processes. And South Carolina Democrats offer a glimpse into not only how state parties are responding to the concerns, but how the national party is being flexible in allowing state parties to act in order to carry out their delegate selection plans. In the face of likely poor turnout, the DNC has granted the South Carolina Democratic Party the ability to conduct precinct reorganization meetings (on March 14) and county conventions (held between March 20 and April 7) to be conducted virtually via Facebook Live, Skype, FaceTime or some other type of (online or otherwise) conference call.
That national party flexibility is warranted given all of the fallout from coronavirus and that all of this builds toward the district and state conventions to be held simultaneously in South Carolina on May 30.
But to be clear, this is not an issue that is unique to the Palmetto state. The selection process will be affected across the country and is a story to watch as the Covid 19 concerns evolve. The problem may not be unique and the state party response may not be either.
Democrats in the Palmetto state had a primary on February 29 to allocate national convention delegate slots to the Democratic candidates still in the race at that time. Both former Vice President Biden and Vermont Senator Sanders qualified for delegates then.
And while that went smoothly enough in South Carolina before the tipping point in the coronavirus evolution in the United States, other Democratic state parties and other state officials have had to make adjustments to how they are conducting the delegate process. Georgia and Louisiana shifted back the dates of their respective primaries and Wyoming Democrats eliminated the in-person portion of their caucus process. But all those changes more directly affect the delegate allocation process.
What is happening under the surface of all the remaining primaries and caucuses is the delegate selection process, the process of actually filling the delegate slots allocated to the various candidates with actual human beings pledged to the candidates who won more than 15 percent of the vote in states and congressional districts across the country.
Typically, those selection processes happen in tiers of caucuses and conventions parallel to and often after the "first determining step" primaries and caucuses. Precinct meetings feed into county conventions and those select and send delegates to district and state conventions in some states. All those meetings tend to entail gatherings of enough people that would raise concerns about further community spread in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
That means that state parties are scrambling to come up with alternate plans for the multi-level selection processes. And South Carolina Democrats offer a glimpse into not only how state parties are responding to the concerns, but how the national party is being flexible in allowing state parties to act in order to carry out their delegate selection plans. In the face of likely poor turnout, the DNC has granted the South Carolina Democratic Party the ability to conduct precinct reorganization meetings (on March 14) and county conventions (held between March 20 and April 7) to be conducted virtually via Facebook Live, Skype, FaceTime or some other type of (online or otherwise) conference call.
That national party flexibility is warranted given all of the fallout from coronavirus and that all of this builds toward the district and state conventions to be held simultaneously in South Carolina on May 30.
But to be clear, this is not an issue that is unique to the Palmetto state. The selection process will be affected across the country and is a story to watch as the Covid 19 concerns evolve. The problem may not be unique and the state party response may not be either.
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