The US 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday, May 19 upheld a lower court ruling from earlier in the month reinstating the canceled New York Democratic presidential primary.
The state of New York had appealed the district court decision to reverse the New York State Board of Elections action canceling the primary under a new law that allowed the Board to remove candidates no longer in the race. Following the 2nd circuit ruling, the state will not appeal any further.
And that officially slates the New York Democratic presidential primary for June 23, a date just five weeks away.
Candidates both for president and district delegate had already filed for the April 28 primary ballot, so none of the state government nor judicial decisions have had any demonstrable impact on the filing process. Nor does the decision today affect the selection process for those district delegates. They will continue to be elected directly from the primary ballot. However, the date of the state convention and the selection of statewide -- at-large and PLEO -- delegates has been affected in the move to June. The State Democratic Committee will now select those delegates -- based on the statewide results of the primary -- at the late July state convention.
And two other factors will affect the administration of the election. First, the delay in finalizing the date of the New York primary did no favors to the State Board of Elections. Sure, the Board held that up with the appeal, but it also delayed finalizing the ballot for the primary election itself. And under the federal UOCAVA law, ballots are to go out to military and other personnel overseas 45 days before any election. There are workarounds for that -- counting the ballots when they come in, for example -- but a delay is a delay and can influence the implementation of election law.
Additionally, Governor Cuomo's April 24 executive order to provide absentee ballot applications (with a postage paid return option) to all eligible New York voters for the primary must be rolled out in the 35 day window remaining. The details of that process will have to be finalized as well, particularly the return of the completed ballots and whether that is mail-only for voters or if they can physically drop them off with election administrators.
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One other matter to note is that the New York Democratic Party has amended its delegate selection plan to reflect not only the date change for the primary, but the allocation of delegates. Now, this point is moot at this time given that the primary is back on, but the language of Part 2, Section A of the delegate selection plan lays out the conditions under which the process would operate if the primary were canceled. Originally (and traditionally), the plan has called for all of the delegates to be allocated to the one candidate who has qualified for the primary ballot. That remains the case, but with a slight tweak. As a rider on that provision another is included: "or at the discretion of such Candidate." That addition was seemingly made in response to the deal struck between the Biden and Sanders campaigns to not only allow Sanders to keep his statewide delegates but to get a share of New York delegates if the primary ultimately ended up canceled. It is not and thus that provision is unnecessary. Still, there was a notable change to the language of the rules.
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Related Posts:
On-Again, Off-Again New York Democratic Presidential Primary is Back on Again
Cuomo Executive Order Confirms New York Presidential Primary Will Move to June 23
New York State Legislature Begins Working on Alternatives to April 28 Presidential Primary
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Monday, May 18, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: HAWAII
HAWAII
Election type: primary
Date: May 22
[April 4 originally]
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 15 congressional district, 9 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Hawaii Democrats pretty substantially altered their delegate selection process for 2020. Although the state legislature failed in 2018 to create a state government-run presidential primary, the state party in 2019 made the move toward a party-run primary in the wake of new DNC encouragements for increased participation in the presidential nomination process. That party-run primary was to combine both in-person and mail-in voting and a ranked choice ballot.
However, the coronavirus, as in other states, disrupted the state party's initial plans. First, Hawaii Democrats chose to eliminate in-person voting in the originally scheduled April 4 primary. Then, days later, the party moved the date on which mail-in ballots were due to May 22 to allow a bit more time for additional voters to register and for a third round of ballot mailing to occur in early May.
All ballots are due to state party offices by Friday, May 22. That is received and not postmarked by May 22. Since the state party offices are closed due to the coronavirus, there is no option to drop off completed ballots. They must be mailed and received by May 22. No specific deadline time is given.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, there were significant changes to the way in which Hawaii Democrats planned to run their delegate selection process for the 2020 cycle. Yet, the Democratic delegation in Hawaii changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates decreased by one and the other two two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same. So, too, did the number of superdelegates in the Aloha state. The nature of the bonus Hawaii Democrats qualified for in 2020 changed. A 15 percent clustering bonus from 2016 was replaced by a 20 percent timing bonus in 2020. The increased bonus masks some small changes to the base delegation in Hawaii for 2020 from 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Hawaii's 15 congressional district delegates are split across two congressional districts and have a variation of just one delegate across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Hawaii Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 8 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 15 Hawaii district delegates will be selected by state convention delegates selected in March 4 precinct meetings. However, those state convention delegates will not make those selections at the state convention as planned. Instead, an online voting system will help facilitate a voting window from June 5-8. The state party will distribute voting instructions to delegates on June 5 and provide a deadline of June for their return. The Hawaii Democratic Party State Central Committee meeting at which PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected had been pushed to a video/teleconference call that will fall on June 13. In neither case has the group of selectors changed, but the date and meeting format have.
[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Hawaii Democrats had planned to hold post-primary state convention on May 23 at which district delegates would have been selected. Likewise, a May 24 state central committee meeting was to have selected PLEO and at-large delegates. Both of those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on April 1.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in June when the Hawaii statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary
Date: May 22
[April 4 originally]
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 15 congressional district, 9 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Hawaii Democrats pretty substantially altered their delegate selection process for 2020. Although the state legislature failed in 2018 to create a state government-run presidential primary, the state party in 2019 made the move toward a party-run primary in the wake of new DNC encouragements for increased participation in the presidential nomination process. That party-run primary was to combine both in-person and mail-in voting and a ranked choice ballot.
However, the coronavirus, as in other states, disrupted the state party's initial plans. First, Hawaii Democrats chose to eliminate in-person voting in the originally scheduled April 4 primary. Then, days later, the party moved the date on which mail-in ballots were due to May 22 to allow a bit more time for additional voters to register and for a third round of ballot mailing to occur in early May.
All ballots are due to state party offices by Friday, May 22. That is received and not postmarked by May 22. Since the state party offices are closed due to the coronavirus, there is no option to drop off completed ballots. They must be mailed and received by May 22. No specific deadline time is given.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, there were significant changes to the way in which Hawaii Democrats planned to run their delegate selection process for the 2020 cycle. Yet, the Democratic delegation in Hawaii changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates decreased by one and the other two two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same. So, too, did the number of superdelegates in the Aloha state. The nature of the bonus Hawaii Democrats qualified for in 2020 changed. A 15 percent clustering bonus from 2016 was replaced by a 20 percent timing bonus in 2020. The increased bonus masks some small changes to the base delegation in Hawaii for 2020 from 2016.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Hawaii's 15 congressional district delegates are split across two congressional districts and have a variation of just one delegate across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Hawaii Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 8 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 15 Hawaii district delegates will be selected by state convention delegates selected in March 4 precinct meetings. However, those state convention delegates will not make those selections at the state convention as planned. Instead, an online voting system will help facilitate a voting window from June 5-8. The state party will distribute voting instructions to delegates on June 5 and provide a deadline of June for their return. The Hawaii Democratic Party State Central Committee meeting at which PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected had been pushed to a video/teleconference call that will fall on June 13. In neither case has the group of selectors changed, but the date and meeting format have.
[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Hawaii Democrats had planned to hold post-primary state convention on May 23 at which district delegates would have been selected. Likewise, a May 24 state central committee meeting was to have selected PLEO and at-large delegates. Both of those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on April 1.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in June when the Hawaii statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Friday, May 15, 2020
When Will Biden Clinch? It Depends.
Any guess on what date he pushes it over the finish line, @FHQ? My guess is Georgia and West Virginia on June 9th.— Matt Cypher (@MLCypher) May 15, 2020
There is certainly an argument out there that Biden wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination back on April 8 -- the day after the Wisconsin primary -- when Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign. The former vice president shifted from being the presumptive presumptive nominee to the presumptive nominee then.
And an argument can be made that the trajectory of Biden's delegate math made that obvious on many of the Tuesdays throughout March. But trajectory is one thing as is the fact that all of the remaining viable candidates other than Biden pulled out of the race for the Democratic nomination. However, crossing over the requisite 1991 pledged delegates to become the nominee is another thing altogether. As of now, Biden is just shy of 1500 delegates and needs around 38 percent of the delegates available in the remaining states with contests to surpass that threshold. Given how the primaries and caucuses have gone since Sanders dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden, that will not prove to be too heavy a lift.
But when will Biden hit and pass 1991?
It depends.
One thing that can be said is that it will not be in May. There are just two more contests -- Oregon and Hawaii next week -- and just 95 delegates to be allocated before the end of the month. June 2 offers both more contests and 479 more delegates. But even then, it would be a bit of a stretch for Biden to get to 1991 by then.
Again, it depends. If one looks at the contests that there are results for since April 8 when Sanders suspended his campaign -- Alaska, Wyoming, Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska -- they paint a certain picture, one where Biden gets almost 74 percent of the qualified vote on average. And if Biden receives around three-quarters of the delegates in future primaries and caucuses, then he will just barely eclipse the 1991 delegate barrier on June 9 when Georgia and West Virginia hold primaries.
Yet, that is something of a rough estimate. It assumes that congressional district delegate allocation will mirror statewide delegate allocation and that may or may not be the case. But that potential variation across congressional districts may end up pushing Biden's magic number clinching point deeper into the delayed primary calendar.
Another variable that may influence when that point occurs is the nature of the small sample of contests that have happened since Sanders's exit from the race. Three of those five contests were in party-run primary or caucus states (Alaska, Wyoming and Kansas). No, that party-run part does not matter to the math going forward, but that all three used ranked-choice voting does. The redistribution of votes in those contests inflates the qualified share of support that both Biden and Sanders received. As a result, the average qualified share used in arriving at the June 9 target date for clinching cited above may be a bit more generous to Sanders than to Biden. After all, much of the voting in the April 10 Alaska party-run primary took place by mail before Sanders dropped out on April 8. The 45 percent Sanders received may not exactly be representative of the share he has gotten and will get in future contests.
If one looks at the other two contests -- Ohio and Nebraska -- then it is clear that Sanders is very much flirting with the threshold to qualify for delegates. And if Nebraska is the new normal -- a state where Sanders failed to qualify for delegates either statewide or in any of the three congressional districts -- then that would speed up Biden's journey to 1991. Were Biden to receive all of the delegates available -- assuming he is the only candidate qualifying for delegates -- then he would easily surpass 1991 on Super Junesday, June 2.
But how the allocation goes between now and the end of primary season will likely be something in between those two extremes: 1) Sanders receiving about a quarter of the qualified vote and 2) Biden being the only qualifying candidate. Of course, there are not that many contests nor delegates at stake between June 2 and June 9. The caucuses in the Virgin Islands fall on June 6, but there are just seven delegates on the line there.
Look, the bottom line is the one where this discussion started: Biden will be the nominee. The question is when he more officially becomes the presumptive nominee in the delegate count. The above is a rough guide. One thing that can be said is that even if one follows the Sanders-generous extreme above -- the one where the Vermont senator receives about a quarter of the delegates -- then Biden will by the end of primary season have enough pledged delegates in his column to allow superdelegates participate on the first ballot roll call vote at the national convention. That is, of course, assuming the current rules remain the same when the convention Rules Committee adopts rules for the convention.
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: OREGON
OREGON
Election type: primary
Date: May 19
Number of delegates: 73 [13 at-large, 7 PLEOs, 41 congressional district, 12 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Oregon Democrats saw very few changes from 2016 to 2020. There were several bills that were introduced in 2018 in the state legislature to change the date of the presidential primary, shifting it into March in all three cases. But for the sixth straight cycle, the Oregon primary remained in mid-May.
The date stayed the same and the administration of the election by the state government remained vote-by-mail. That insulated Oregon Democrats from changes to the delegate allocation process in the face of the coronavirus. There was no need to eliminate in-person voting in Oregon where there was in other states.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (PT) Tuesday, May 19. That is received and not postmarked by May 19. Voters who complete their ballots after the Wednesday before the election are encouraged to drop the ballot off rather than mail it.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Oregon changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates in all three categories stayed exactly the same, and the delegation gained one superdelegate.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Oregon's 41 congressional district delegates are split across five congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Oregon Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 12 delegates
CD4 - 7 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 65 Oregon pledged delegates will be selected in a new vote-by-mail system open to all registered Oregon Democrats. Those Oregon Democrats can apply online by May 21 in order to receive ballot instructions on May 27. And participation means either voting for delegate candidates or running for district, at-large or PLEO delegate positions. All three categories of delegates will be elected through the same system. Ballots will be due by June 12.
[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Oregon Democrats had planned to hold post-primary district caucuses on June 6 and a state convention on June 20. The former would have selected the 41 district delegates while the latter would have been charged with choosing the 20 statewide (at-large and PLEO) delegates. Those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 4.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Oregon statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary
Date: May 19
Number of delegates: 73 [13 at-large, 7 PLEOs, 41 congressional district, 12 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Oregon Democrats saw very few changes from 2016 to 2020. There were several bills that were introduced in 2018 in the state legislature to change the date of the presidential primary, shifting it into March in all three cases. But for the sixth straight cycle, the Oregon primary remained in mid-May.
The date stayed the same and the administration of the election by the state government remained vote-by-mail. That insulated Oregon Democrats from changes to the delegate allocation process in the face of the coronavirus. There was no need to eliminate in-person voting in Oregon where there was in other states.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (PT) Tuesday, May 19. That is received and not postmarked by May 19. Voters who complete their ballots after the Wednesday before the election are encouraged to drop the ballot off rather than mail it.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Oregon changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates in all three categories stayed exactly the same, and the delegation gained one superdelegate.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Oregon's 41 congressional district delegates are split across five congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Oregon Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 12 delegates
CD4 - 7 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 65 Oregon pledged delegates will be selected in a new vote-by-mail system open to all registered Oregon Democrats. Those Oregon Democrats can apply online by May 21 in order to receive ballot instructions on May 27. And participation means either voting for delegate candidates or running for district, at-large or PLEO delegate positions. All three categories of delegates will be elected through the same system. Ballots will be due by June 12.
[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Oregon Democrats had planned to hold post-primary district caucuses on June 6 and a state convention on June 20. The former would have selected the 41 district delegates while the latter would have been charged with choosing the 20 statewide (at-large and PLEO) delegates. Those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 4.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Oregon statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Moves Toward Taking the National Convention Virtual
The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) met via conference call on Tuesday, May 12 to consider a number of issues raised by coronavirus pandemic.
Most of the actions taken had been telegraphed before the meeting, but there remained some interesting questions brought up during the meeting in response to some of the agenda items. The easiest hurdles to clear came from state parties' reactions to the public health crisis and its impact on the electoral and delegate selection processes there.
Several states have moved since mid-March to points on the primary calendar beyond what is allowed under DNC rules. Decision makers in Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York all settled on dates beyond the June 9 cut off established in the rules.1 And all of those states but Connecticut had waiver requests before the RBC today. All were unanimously approved.
Beyond that thumbs up on the state-level changes before them today, RBC co-chair, Jim Roosevelt, also revealed that the delegate apportionment to states would remain the same. States will not receive any further bonus delegates for moves to later dates on the calendar, and as of now, the above states either have received waivers that allows them to skirt any penalties from rules violations or are in discussions with the RBC about their respective situations. Connecticut Democrats fall into the latter category and are between a rock and a hard place with the August 11 primary date state government decision makers landed on falling just a few days before the convention is set to start. That is another state party that will eventually have to bring delegate selection plan changes before the RBC in the near future. Puerto Rico Democrats face the same dilemma. The primary in the US territory was indefinitely postponed in April but the party is eyeing a July 5 or 12 primary date that would also require a waiver from the RBC.
But the bigger items on the RBC's agenda dealt with the national convention. The committee unanimously passed resolutions to allow state parties to use virtual means to complete their delegate selection processes as long as that did not include primaries or precinct caucuses. Then, however, the body moved on to a more encompassing resolution on convention procedure. There were a couple of main aims that the the RBC was targeting. First, given the public health crisis, the RBC members were concerned with the safety of delegates able to attend the convention in Milwaukee but also the citizens of the city as well. But second, the committee also sought to conduct the business of the convention under the circumstances that the coronavirus has created. Both meant that the RBC had to make changes to the rules where there is no contingency for such conditions.
The resolution attempts to address those twin issues. Procedurally, it allows the convention Rules and Credentials Committees to be the sole arbiters of their respective reports. They will not go before the full convention unless there is a minority report issued as well. That provision did raise some concerns with several members of the committee who were concerned about that (minority report) outlet and what would constitute a passing vote in the committee or on the floor. Would it be a simple majority of those present or a majority of all of the total number of delegates? The distinction matters, especially in the context of a convention that may see some delegates in person in an arena in Milwaukee and some at home. The tentative conclusion was that at past conventions, it had been the simple majority.
And while all of that may get too far into the weeds of convention process, it does matter. More broadly, the resolution also granted the DNC the flexibility to allow the participation of some delegates from afar.
That measure unanimously passed the RBC but has to go before the full DNC for approval before it takes effect.
--
1 New York Democrats are in limbo to some extent with their primary. The decision to reinstate the June 23 Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state is being appealed to the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals, and any changes made in the wake of that decision could push the New York Democratic Party back before the RBC in the coming days if any cancelation forces further changes to the amended delegate selection plan.
Most of the actions taken had been telegraphed before the meeting, but there remained some interesting questions brought up during the meeting in response to some of the agenda items. The easiest hurdles to clear came from state parties' reactions to the public health crisis and its impact on the electoral and delegate selection processes there.
Several states have moved since mid-March to points on the primary calendar beyond what is allowed under DNC rules. Decision makers in Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York all settled on dates beyond the June 9 cut off established in the rules.1 And all of those states but Connecticut had waiver requests before the RBC today. All were unanimously approved.
Beyond that thumbs up on the state-level changes before them today, RBC co-chair, Jim Roosevelt, also revealed that the delegate apportionment to states would remain the same. States will not receive any further bonus delegates for moves to later dates on the calendar, and as of now, the above states either have received waivers that allows them to skirt any penalties from rules violations or are in discussions with the RBC about their respective situations. Connecticut Democrats fall into the latter category and are between a rock and a hard place with the August 11 primary date state government decision makers landed on falling just a few days before the convention is set to start. That is another state party that will eventually have to bring delegate selection plan changes before the RBC in the near future. Puerto Rico Democrats face the same dilemma. The primary in the US territory was indefinitely postponed in April but the party is eyeing a July 5 or 12 primary date that would also require a waiver from the RBC.
But the bigger items on the RBC's agenda dealt with the national convention. The committee unanimously passed resolutions to allow state parties to use virtual means to complete their delegate selection processes as long as that did not include primaries or precinct caucuses. Then, however, the body moved on to a more encompassing resolution on convention procedure. There were a couple of main aims that the the RBC was targeting. First, given the public health crisis, the RBC members were concerned with the safety of delegates able to attend the convention in Milwaukee but also the citizens of the city as well. But second, the committee also sought to conduct the business of the convention under the circumstances that the coronavirus has created. Both meant that the RBC had to make changes to the rules where there is no contingency for such conditions.
The resolution attempts to address those twin issues. Procedurally, it allows the convention Rules and Credentials Committees to be the sole arbiters of their respective reports. They will not go before the full convention unless there is a minority report issued as well. That provision did raise some concerns with several members of the committee who were concerned about that (minority report) outlet and what would constitute a passing vote in the committee or on the floor. Would it be a simple majority of those present or a majority of all of the total number of delegates? The distinction matters, especially in the context of a convention that may see some delegates in person in an arena in Milwaukee and some at home. The tentative conclusion was that at past conventions, it had been the simple majority.
And while all of that may get too far into the weeds of convention process, it does matter. More broadly, the resolution also granted the DNC the flexibility to allow the participation of some delegates from afar.
That measure unanimously passed the RBC but has to go before the full DNC for approval before it takes effect.
--
1 New York Democrats are in limbo to some extent with their primary. The decision to reinstate the June 23 Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state is being appealed to the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals, and any changes made in the wake of that decision could push the New York Democratic Party back before the RBC in the coming days if any cancelation forces further changes to the amended delegate selection plan.
Monday, May 11, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NEBRASKA
NEBRASKA
Election type: primary
Date: May 12
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 4 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Nebraska Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. In December 2018, Nebraska Democrats opted to shift from the caucuses the party had used from 2008-2016 to the state-run primary. That not only changed the format for participation but also had the effect pushing the date of the Nebraska Democratic delegate selection event back by more than two months.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the initial reaction from the state government was to mail early/absentee voting applications to all eligible Nebraska voters. But that late March decision was followed by another executive order that canceled all in-person voting in the May 12 primary.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (CT) Tuesday, May 12. That is received and not postmarked by May 12.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Nebraska changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by four (three district delegates and one at-large delegate), but lost one superdelegate. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Nebraska's 20 congressional district delegates are split across three congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Nebraska Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 20 Nebraska district delegates will be selected by district caucuses (subdivided by presidential preference) at the virtual state convention on June 13 via phone/video conference. That is a week later than the in-person state convention had been planned prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Post-primary virtual county conventions that feed into the district and state conventions will be held May 17-31. That, too, is marginally later than was originally planned. In-person county conventions were initially slated to fall in a May 14-24 window. Smaller Nebraska counties -- those with fewer than 50,000 residents -- will conduct their teleconference conventions from May 17-24 while the four largest counties in the Cornhusker state will distribute paper ballots on May 17 to be returned to the state party by May 27. Virtual conventions will follow in those largest counties on May 30-31.
The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 14 at and by the virtual state convention based on the statewide results in the primary. Again, the May county conventions choose delegates to attend the virtual state convention.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Nebraska statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary
Date: May 12
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 4 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Nebraska Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. In December 2018, Nebraska Democrats opted to shift from the caucuses the party had used from 2008-2016 to the state-run primary. That not only changed the format for participation but also had the effect pushing the date of the Nebraska Democratic delegate selection event back by more than two months.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the initial reaction from the state government was to mail early/absentee voting applications to all eligible Nebraska voters. But that late March decision was followed by another executive order that canceled all in-person voting in the May 12 primary.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (CT) Tuesday, May 12. That is received and not postmarked by May 12.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Nebraska changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by four (three district delegates and one at-large delegate), but lost one superdelegate. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Nebraska's 20 congressional district delegates are split across three congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Nebraska Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 20 Nebraska district delegates will be selected by district caucuses (subdivided by presidential preference) at the virtual state convention on June 13 via phone/video conference. That is a week later than the in-person state convention had been planned prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Post-primary virtual county conventions that feed into the district and state conventions will be held May 17-31. That, too, is marginally later than was originally planned. In-person county conventions were initially slated to fall in a May 14-24 window. Smaller Nebraska counties -- those with fewer than 50,000 residents -- will conduct their teleconference conventions from May 17-24 while the four largest counties in the Cornhusker state will distribute paper ballots on May 17 to be returned to the state party by May 27. Virtual conventions will follow in those largest counties on May 30-31.
The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 14 at and by the virtual state convention based on the statewide results in the primary. Again, the May county conventions choose delegates to attend the virtual state convention.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Nebraska statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Friday, May 8, 2020
How do you stage a convention in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic?
Jon Ward and Brittany Shepherd have the story at Yahoo News.
--
It will take some rules changes on the Democratic side to facilitate anything other than a traditional convention. But Republicans already have language in place in Rule 37(e) of their rules covering the scenario where the party is "unable to conduct its business either within the convention site or within the convention city." It defers to the Republican National Committee to develop an alternative method for handling the roll call votes for the presidential and vice presidential nominations.
--
It will take some rules changes on the Democratic side to facilitate anything other than a traditional convention. But Republicans already have language in place in Rule 37(e) of their rules covering the scenario where the party is "unable to conduct its business either within the convention site or within the convention city." It defers to the Republican National Committee to develop an alternative method for handling the roll call votes for the presidential and vice presidential nominations.
On-Again, Off-Again New York Democratic Presidential Primary is Back on Again
The late April New York State Board of Elections decision to cancel the Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state met some judicial resistance on Tuesday, May 5.
In a federal case brought by former Democratic presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, and some of those who filed to run as delegates aligned with him on the New York primary ballot, the aim was to reinstate candidates and delegates pushed off the ballot last month. It was that action -- the removal of suspended candidates from the ballot -- that was the predicate to the state board's decision regarding the primary cancelation.
But the groundwork for that maneuver was laid in the budget agreed to by the state legislature and Governor Cuomo (D). Under traditional New York state election law, the State Board of Elections has the ability to cancel a primary if only one candidate qualifies, rendering the election uncontested and superfluous. That obviously was not the case in the 2020 Democratic nomination race. Although the bar to qualify for the New York presidential primary ballot is high, Vice President Joe Biden was not the only candidate to make the ballot.
However, Biden was the only candidate who had not suspended his campaign by the time the budget deal was being finalized. And while other candidates were still technically on the ballot, all had suspended their campaigns and most had endorsed Biden. And language was inserted in the budget bill to provide the state board with an additional tool given that contingency. The board was empowered with the ability to remove candidates from the primary ballot if they were no longer actively running for the nomination. That, in turn, triggered the "only one candidate" provision that has been a part of New York election law for years.
But again, candidates, both presidential and district delegate, had qualified for the original April ballot before the primary was shifted to June 23. And when the primary was canceled in late April, that drew the ire of the newly suspended Sanders campaign and the aforementioned Yang case.
So, on the one hand, one has the argument that the cancelation suppresses the vote not only in the presidential race in New York, but in all the down ballot races in parts of the Empire state that are still on for June 23. On the other is a state government attempting to manage the public health concerns around in-person voting and the coronavirus pandemic and possible budgetary savings from scaling that primary back that would help diminished state coffers in the face of the virus.1
Now that federal judge, Analisa Torres, has issued an injunction and the June 23 Democratic presidential primary is back on, it means that elections officials in the state have lost a week of preparation with fewer than 50 days until the election. And throw on top of that a likely appeal of the decision from the state. Much of this creates more uncertainty that cuts into the time to get the ballots ready and printed and applications for absentee ballots out to eligible voters (much less returned, processed and actual ballots mailed out as well). That is a heavy lift even without considering any issues with recruiting poll workers, training them for new conditions and getting them comfortable with showing up to administer the election.
--
But push the state government implementation issues aside for a moment. There still is no answer to how the New York Democratic Party is or has responded to the primary back and forth. Should the presidential primary now go off as planned under the original delegate selection plan and the new court injunction, then the revisions the state party will have to make to the plan will be minimal.
However, there was no alternate scenario publicly shared on how the party would allocate delegates should there be no primary. Under the current plan, the party allocates all of the delegates to the candidate in an uncontested primary. But that rule hinges on (and cites) the traditional New York state election law that cancels a primary if only one candidate qualifies for the ballot. There is no contingency in the rule in the delegate selection plan that accounts for the new law, the law that eliminates candidates from the ballot who are no longer running.
A change has to be made there if the primary is canceled again under appeal.
But that is not the only change under the cancelation contingency. There also likely has to be something written into the plan -- the revisions of which will have to be reviewed and approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) -- to account for the deal struck between the Biden campaign and the suspended Sanders campaign. Yes, that deal allowed Sanders to keep his statewide delegates instead of having them reallocated, but it also included a provision about the New York process in the event that there was no primary. That deal says Sanders will get some share of the delegates in the Empire state. But how that process is conducted, who is doing the selecting (especially with district delegates no longer directly elected on the primary ballot) and how to determine Sanders's share remain open questions that likely have to be dealt with in any changes the New York Democratic Party hypothetically makes to its delegate selection plan before it submits it to the DNCRBC.
In the end, there is some uncertainty that surrounds the delegate selection process in New York while Judge Torres's decision is appealed. But that uncertainty extends beyond just the state government and its administration of an election that is less than seven weeks off. It affects the state party's plans for how it will handle the delegate selection process itself with the clock ticking down to the start of a delayed national convention.
--
1 Yes, Governor Cuomo issued an executive order on April 24 ensuring that absentee ballot applications would be mailed to every eligible New York voter in the June 23 primary. That decision came just days before the primary was canceled by the State Board of Elections on April 27.
In a federal case brought by former Democratic presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, and some of those who filed to run as delegates aligned with him on the New York primary ballot, the aim was to reinstate candidates and delegates pushed off the ballot last month. It was that action -- the removal of suspended candidates from the ballot -- that was the predicate to the state board's decision regarding the primary cancelation.
But the groundwork for that maneuver was laid in the budget agreed to by the state legislature and Governor Cuomo (D). Under traditional New York state election law, the State Board of Elections has the ability to cancel a primary if only one candidate qualifies, rendering the election uncontested and superfluous. That obviously was not the case in the 2020 Democratic nomination race. Although the bar to qualify for the New York presidential primary ballot is high, Vice President Joe Biden was not the only candidate to make the ballot.
However, Biden was the only candidate who had not suspended his campaign by the time the budget deal was being finalized. And while other candidates were still technically on the ballot, all had suspended their campaigns and most had endorsed Biden. And language was inserted in the budget bill to provide the state board with an additional tool given that contingency. The board was empowered with the ability to remove candidates from the primary ballot if they were no longer actively running for the nomination. That, in turn, triggered the "only one candidate" provision that has been a part of New York election law for years.
But again, candidates, both presidential and district delegate, had qualified for the original April ballot before the primary was shifted to June 23. And when the primary was canceled in late April, that drew the ire of the newly suspended Sanders campaign and the aforementioned Yang case.
So, on the one hand, one has the argument that the cancelation suppresses the vote not only in the presidential race in New York, but in all the down ballot races in parts of the Empire state that are still on for June 23. On the other is a state government attempting to manage the public health concerns around in-person voting and the coronavirus pandemic and possible budgetary savings from scaling that primary back that would help diminished state coffers in the face of the virus.1
Now that federal judge, Analisa Torres, has issued an injunction and the June 23 Democratic presidential primary is back on, it means that elections officials in the state have lost a week of preparation with fewer than 50 days until the election. And throw on top of that a likely appeal of the decision from the state. Much of this creates more uncertainty that cuts into the time to get the ballots ready and printed and applications for absentee ballots out to eligible voters (much less returned, processed and actual ballots mailed out as well). That is a heavy lift even without considering any issues with recruiting poll workers, training them for new conditions and getting them comfortable with showing up to administer the election.
--
But push the state government implementation issues aside for a moment. There still is no answer to how the New York Democratic Party is or has responded to the primary back and forth. Should the presidential primary now go off as planned under the original delegate selection plan and the new court injunction, then the revisions the state party will have to make to the plan will be minimal.
However, there was no alternate scenario publicly shared on how the party would allocate delegates should there be no primary. Under the current plan, the party allocates all of the delegates to the candidate in an uncontested primary. But that rule hinges on (and cites) the traditional New York state election law that cancels a primary if only one candidate qualifies for the ballot. There is no contingency in the rule in the delegate selection plan that accounts for the new law, the law that eliminates candidates from the ballot who are no longer running.
A change has to be made there if the primary is canceled again under appeal.
But that is not the only change under the cancelation contingency. There also likely has to be something written into the plan -- the revisions of which will have to be reviewed and approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) -- to account for the deal struck between the Biden campaign and the suspended Sanders campaign. Yes, that deal allowed Sanders to keep his statewide delegates instead of having them reallocated, but it also included a provision about the New York process in the event that there was no primary. That deal says Sanders will get some share of the delegates in the Empire state. But how that process is conducted, who is doing the selecting (especially with district delegates no longer directly elected on the primary ballot) and how to determine Sanders's share remain open questions that likely have to be dealt with in any changes the New York Democratic Party hypothetically makes to its delegate selection plan before it submits it to the DNCRBC.
In the end, there is some uncertainty that surrounds the delegate selection process in New York while Judge Torres's decision is appealed. But that uncertainty extends beyond just the state government and its administration of an election that is less than seven weeks off. It affects the state party's plans for how it will handle the delegate selection process itself with the clock ticking down to the start of a delayed national convention.
--
1 Yes, Governor Cuomo issued an executive order on April 24 ensuring that absentee ballot applications would be mailed to every eligible New York voter in the June 23 primary. That decision came just days before the primary was canceled by the State Board of Elections on April 27.
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Delaware Presidential Primary Pushed Back Another Five Weeks
Delaware Governor John Carney (D) on Thursday, May 7, signed yet another amendment to his state of emergency declaration in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This one, like the change in late March, shifts the presidential primary in the First state back by another five weeks to July 7.
Delaware now joins neighboring New Jersey on a date just after the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Typically, those types of summer primaries come with their own issues. Voters may find conflicts with schedule while they are on vacation, for example. But part of Carney's order addresses that issue. Not only does the presidential primary in Delaware move back another 35 days, but that buys state elections officials some additional time to send out absentee ballot applications to all eligible Delaware voters. Again, that is applications and not ballots. The additional time will also give elections officials time to process those requests and mail out ballots to those voters who are approved.
While this order opens the door to another wider form of participation in the primary, it importantly does not eliminate in-person voting. At least six sites in each county across Delaware will continue to offer in-person voting for those who prefer that option. Under the order municipalities are also given the latitude to extend the hours in which polling stations are open on primary day.
No, Delaware is not a large state and there are only 21 pledged delegates at stake in the Democratic primary, but the date change is yet another statement about the broader impact of the coronavirus pandemic on elections in 2020. This primary move is a second change for Delaware, but also one beyond the June 9 deadline by which states must have conducted their primaries or caucuses under Democratic National Committee rules. The state joins Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York in that distinction.
The change in Delaware has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Governor Carney's emergency declaration will be archived here.
Delaware now joins neighboring New Jersey on a date just after the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Typically, those types of summer primaries come with their own issues. Voters may find conflicts with schedule while they are on vacation, for example. But part of Carney's order addresses that issue. Not only does the presidential primary in Delaware move back another 35 days, but that buys state elections officials some additional time to send out absentee ballot applications to all eligible Delaware voters. Again, that is applications and not ballots. The additional time will also give elections officials time to process those requests and mail out ballots to those voters who are approved.
While this order opens the door to another wider form of participation in the primary, it importantly does not eliminate in-person voting. At least six sites in each county across Delaware will continue to offer in-person voting for those who prefer that option. Under the order municipalities are also given the latitude to extend the hours in which polling stations are open on primary day.
No, Delaware is not a large state and there are only 21 pledged delegates at stake in the Democratic primary, but the date change is yet another statement about the broader impact of the coronavirus pandemic on elections in 2020. This primary move is a second change for Delaware, but also one beyond the June 9 deadline by which states must have conducted their primaries or caucuses under Democratic National Committee rules. The state joins Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York in that distinction.
The change in Delaware has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Governor Carney's emergency declaration will be archived here.
Friday, May 1, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: KANSAS
KANSAS
Election type: primary (party-run)
Date: May 2
Number of delegates: 45 [9 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 26 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Kansas Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. Kansas Democrats' original delegate selection plan called for a May 2 party-run primary that included both in-person and mail-in ranked choice voting. That May end point was eight weeks later than the weekend after Super Tuesday date on which the Kansas Democratic caucuses were in 2016.
Those are not changes without significance. Kansas Democrats, even days before May 2, was a success story for the DNC changes in Rule 2 calling for increased participation. Even then, turnout in the mail-in party-run primary was triple what it was in the 2016 caucuses.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the Kansas Democratic Party's initial reaction was to continue as planned with the party's delegate selection plan. They planned to retain the in-person voting component but emphasize the vote-by-mail system the groundwork of which had been laid in the original plan. This emphasis included mailing ballots to all registered Democrats in the Sunflower state. Those registered by March 30 were to have been mailed ballot by the party by April 10. Additionally, Kansas Democrats could request ballots from the party until April 24. Less than two weeks later the party opted to nix in-person voting (just as Alaska, Hawaii and Wyoming have done in party-run contests).
All ballots are due to the state party by Saturday, May 2. That is received and not postmarked by May 2.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by eight delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by six (four district delegates and two at-large delegates), and gained two superdelegates. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the decision of Kansas Democrats to switch to a later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Kansas's 26 congressional district delegates are split across 4 congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Kansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 8 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 26 of the Kansas district delegates will be selected through online voting on May 29 and 30. Any registered Democrat can participate in the selection election by registering either with their congressional district chair or the state party by Monday, May 4. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 3-4 by the State Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. This selection will also take place virtually.
[The dates of selection have been modified for all pledged delegates because of the coronavirus. The district delegates were to have been selected in district conventions on May 16 while the PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected by the Kansas Democratic State Committee on June 6.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Kansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary (party-run)
Date: May 2
Number of delegates: 45 [9 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 26 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Kansas Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. Kansas Democrats' original delegate selection plan called for a May 2 party-run primary that included both in-person and mail-in ranked choice voting. That May end point was eight weeks later than the weekend after Super Tuesday date on which the Kansas Democratic caucuses were in 2016.
Those are not changes without significance. Kansas Democrats, even days before May 2, was a success story for the DNC changes in Rule 2 calling for increased participation. Even then, turnout in the mail-in party-run primary was triple what it was in the 2016 caucuses.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the Kansas Democratic Party's initial reaction was to continue as planned with the party's delegate selection plan. They planned to retain the in-person voting component but emphasize the vote-by-mail system the groundwork of which had been laid in the original plan. This emphasis included mailing ballots to all registered Democrats in the Sunflower state. Those registered by March 30 were to have been mailed ballot by the party by April 10. Additionally, Kansas Democrats could request ballots from the party until April 24. Less than two weeks later the party opted to nix in-person voting (just as Alaska, Hawaii and Wyoming have done in party-run contests).
All ballots are due to the state party by Saturday, May 2. That is received and not postmarked by May 2.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by eight delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by six (four district delegates and two at-large delegates), and gained two superdelegates. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the decision of Kansas Democrats to switch to a later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Kansas's 26 congressional district delegates are split across 4 congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Kansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 8 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 26 of the Kansas district delegates will be selected through online voting on May 29 and 30. Any registered Democrat can participate in the selection election by registering either with their congressional district chair or the state party by Monday, May 4. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 3-4 by the State Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. This selection will also take place virtually.
[The dates of selection have been modified for all pledged delegates because of the coronavirus. The district delegates were to have been selected in district conventions on May 16 while the PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected by the Kansas Democratic State Committee on June 6.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Kansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
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