The Electoral College Map (7/25/20)

Update for July 25.

Changes (July 25)
State	Before	After
Pennsylvania	Lean Biden	Toss Up Biden

Another day and another poll is released out of Pennsylvania. The Keystone state has seen a flurry of activity this week. And as new surveys have emerged, Pennsylvania has hopped back and forth from one category to another here at FHQ. Today is a day for it to inch over the Lean/Toss Up line back to a Biden toss up.

...but only just barely.


Polling Quick Hits:
Pennsylvania (Biden 48, Trump 45):
The latest Gravis poll out of Pennsylvania may have Biden running just a fraction behind his FHQ average in the state, but it has President Trump running a couple of points ahead of his. And that produces a margin that once again shifts the state back into the group of Biden toss ups. But again, as has been mentioned in past updates over the last several days, that a state like Pennsylvania is jumping over into a new category only to snap back the next day only underscores just how huddled it is around that Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side of the ledger. The shading on the map is less significant than the fact that the Keystone state is tipped nearly five points in Biden's direction. That remains a lot of work for the president to make up in the 101 days until November 3.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	FL-293 (278 | 289)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-20 (298 | 260)	MO-10 (122)	NE-2 (45)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	NH-4 (302 | 240)	SC-9 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (27)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (209)	OH-18 (352 | 204)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (88)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	VA-13 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	TX-38 (170)	AR-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	WI-10 NE CD2-1 (249)	IA-6 ME CD2-1 (132)	KS-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania and Florida), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Yes, Pennsylvania is back to being a toss up, but its position on the Electoral College Spectrum above  -- just to the Trump side of tipping point Florida -- stays the same as it was at the close of the work week. Nothing else changed on the Spectrum.

The same is true for the Watch List. Friday's 14 states within a point of changing categories all septs their spots. Only Pennsylvania changed the direction of its possible switch.

And finally, another day passes without a new poll from either Nevada or New Hampshire. Only one of the two is on the Watch List, but both are probably miscast as toss ups given the movement of other states that finished around them in 2016. There really needs to be some updated information from both states.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 86.
Days since the last New Hampshire poll was in the field: 39.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Wisconsin	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/22/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (7/24/20)

Update for July 24.

Changes (July 24)
State	Before	After
Pennsylvania	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden

With one week left in July, the presidential race has taken on a particular steady bent: toward Joe Biden. A month ago, some folks on Twitter would respond to these daily updates with something along the lines of, "This is Biden's high water mark." FHQ neither agreed nor disagreed. The polling always tells that tale.

If anything, the water level has only risen in the aggregate in the time since. But that can only be seen through certain lenses. Of late, that has meant a handful of toss up states pushing into the Lean Biden category. But in other ways the race has been on a fairly steady course. The electoral vote tally -- give or take Georgia -- has stayed largely the same. And the states that have become Biden leans have not really changed that much. They were only barely toss ups before with averages just below the five point line separating the Lean and Toss up categories.

So if Biden has seen his high water mark, then it has persisted for a while now. The extent to which that hardens -- or has already hardened -- is a fact likely not taken lightly in the halls of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or at Trump headquarters in Arlington.


Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan (Biden 49, Trump 40 via Fox News | Biden 51, Trump 42 via Gravis):
The Spry Strategies survey showing Trump up four in the Wolverine state looks even more out of place with a couple of subsequent polls finding much the same as surveys in the field in the state in June and July. Both Fox News and Gravis have Biden up nine and both have the former vice president around the 50 percent mark. In fact, in the 16 surveys conducted in Michigan in whole or in part in June and July, Biden has been at or north of the majority threshold in half of them. Even without digging into the crosstabs, that is a less than enviable position for the incumbent president to be.


Minnesota (Biden 51, Trump 38):
Polling has been sporadic in the North Star state in 2020, but the picture the scant survey work there paints is one that indicates that it is no longer 2016. Nor does it appear as if the civil unrest in the state following George Floyd's death has changed the complexion of the race in Minnesota statewide. The Fox News poll certainly does not point toward a tightening race. If anything, the state of play in Minnesota has remained pretty stable. The FHQ average margin in Minnesota before this poll was Biden +11.5. After, it was Biden +11.8. Minnesota was one of those blue wall states in 2016, but one that barely stayed in the Democrats' column. In 2020, Minnesota does not appear to be the Minnesota of 2016.


Pennsylvania (Biden 50, Trump 39):
A day after drifting over the Lean/Toss Up line into Biden Toss Up turf, the new Fox News survey of the Keystone state snapped it right back to where it was earlier in the week. And that makes sense because, like Michigan, of the 12 polls conducted in Pennsylvania in June and July, Biden has been at or above 50 percent in seven of them. Trump, meanwhile, has been more likely to be mired in the low 40s. In that time, his average share of support has been 43 percent which is just below his adjusted average (43.6 percent) at FHQ. Yes, there are still a few months to go until election day, but the direction of this race has to turn around and probably quickly in a state the president is going to need in order to get to 270.


Wisconsin (Biden 50, Trump 42):
Gravis Marketing was also in the field in Wisconsin this week. Like the earlier Spry Strategies poll, it found Biden ahead in the Badger state. But unlike that survey, Gravis had Biden up by a larger, eight point margin. That is not inconsistent with much of the polling conducted over the last two months. As in other states, the pandemic and the civil unrest have not seemingly helped the president.  But on average, Wisconsin has moved in 2020 polling a little more than five points in the Democrats' direction compared to the 2016 results. The average shift across all states now is approaching eight points. Wisconsin, then, is currently running a bit behind that.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	FL-293 (278 | 289)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-20 (298 | 260)	MO-10 (122)	NE-2 (45)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	NH-4 (302 | 240)	SC-9 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (27)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (209)	OH-18 (352 | 204)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (88)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	VA-13 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	TX-38 (170)	AR-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	WI-10 NE CD2-1 (249)	IA-6 ME CD2-1 (132)	KS-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania and Florida), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Pennsylvania had a short stay in the Biden toss up category, but the new polls there and in Wisconsin shook up the expanding Lean Biden group of states. Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are now all Lean Biden states, but all remain clustered in tight proximity of each other in the averages. That space between the three means that any poll could not only affect the order, but now may also dictate which state holds down the distinction of being the tipping point state. Yesterday, that was Wisconsin, but today, Florida is the new tipping point. It is also noteworthy that the Lean Biden category has expanded beyond the tipping point cell in the Electoral College Spectrum above. Biden now has a projected 298 electoral votes in Strong and Lean states alone. The Biden toss ups are now all superfluous, representing some insulation should the race turn toward Trump.

But one should also not fail to note where Nevada and New Hampshire are currently located in the order of states. Both remain Biden toss ups but both remain criminally underpolled. And honestly, given the 2020 trajectories of states that finished around both the Silver and Granite states in 2016, both are more likely Biden leans at this point, absent any new polling, than toss ups. The waiting game continues there.

The Watch List below is unchanged from a day ago. Well, the group of states included is. Pennsylvania is now a Lean Biden state, however, within a point of shifting back into the toss up category. And again, Florida and Wisconsin -- along with Nebraska's second congressional district -- are right there with Pennsylvania. But for now, all are Biden leans.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Wisconsin	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/20/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (7/23/20)

Update for July 23.

Changes (July 23)
State	Before	After
Florida	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden
Pennsylvania	Lean Biden	Toss Up Biden

For a couple of states that have been huddled around the Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side of the ledger, Florida and Pennsylvania marginally moving, but in opposite directions, had a fairly significant effect here at FHQ today. Not only did those shifts change the overall electoral vote calculus, but it changed the tipping point state in the order and meant that Biden would cross 270 on his Strong and Lean states alone. All six current Biden toss ups would just be insulation at this point.


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida (Biden 50, Trump 44 via St. Pete Polls | Biden 51, Trump 38 via Quinnipiac):
The Sunshine state has consistently throughout the month of July had a margin right on the edge of the Lean/Toss Up categories on the Biden side of the partisan line. The latest St. Pete Polls and Quinnipiac surveys did little to push that average from that plateau, but it did trigger an important change in Florida. What's more, the more troubling thing for President Trump, perhaps, is that Florida polling this month has more often than not had the former vice president at or above 50 percent in the state. In four of the six surveys in the field in whole or in part in July, Biden has crested above the majority threshold while Trump has remained in relative stasis in the mid-40s.

Sure, there are exceptions to those types of polls, and the Quinnipiac poll is one of them on the Trump side. This is the first time the president has dipped below 40 percent there, and this is something of an outlier on its face. But on the whole, Biden has settled in around 48 percent in the FHQ averages while Trump continues to exist in the 43 percent range. The longer that holds, the harder it is to see the president making 270. Florida is that important to Trump's chances of getting there and that is especially true when Florida is a lean to Biden.

Spry Strategies surveys:
Rather than take the ten battleground -- in the presidential and/or Senate races -- polls from Spry individually, the 30,000 foot view of all of them together may be more instructive. The one thing that immediately jumps out is that the order of the ten states is not in line with the established and relatively consistent order of states in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Here is the order in the Spry polls from strongest Trump to strongest Biden:

Kentucky: Trump +27
Montana: Trump +10
Texas: Trump +5
Michigan: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +3
North Carolina: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump +1
_______________________
Wisconsin: Biden +1
Iowa: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +5

Most of the difference between this and the FHQ Electoral College Spectrum is just polling variation and house effects, so FHQ will not dwell on it too much. Yet, what stands out are the states on the opposite side of the partisan line from where they are below. Iowa is on the Biden side when there has yet to be a poll with Biden ahead in the Hawkeye state in all of 2020. Additionally Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are on the Trump side, counter to where each has consistently been since FHQ started these updates last month. Michigan is particularly noteworthy. Trump has led in the Wolverine state in 2020 surveys, but that has not been since early March or before and it has never been more than a couple of points. And while North Carolina and Pennsylvania have been steady Biden states, there have at least been a few Trump polls peppered into the mix. Both have also been closer than Michigan has been.

Everything else makes some sense. Kentucky is definitely the most Trump state among the group, but Arizona likely is not the most Biden. But a +5 in the Grand Canyon state is not out of the norm for the former vice president.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	WI-103 (278 | 270)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-20 (298 | 260)	MO-10 (122)	NE-2 (45)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	NH-4 (302 | 240)	SC-9 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (27)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (209)	OH-18 (352 | 204)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (88)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	VA-13 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	TX-38 (170)	AR-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	FL-29 NE CD2-1 (268)	IA-6 ME CD2-1 (132)	KS-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Wisconsin (Biden's toss up states plus the Badger state), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Wisconsin is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Pennsylvania shifting back into the Biden Toss Up category is not without import, but the Florida move into the Lean Biden group of states is a big deal. But it is a big deal that needs some context. On the one hand, I am fairly certain that this is the first time in the 12 years and four cycles now of doing this that Florida has been anything other than a toss up on either side of the partisan line. However, on the other hand, it should be noted that Florida is part of a group of states situated around the Lean/Toss Up line among the current Biden coalition of states that add up to 64 electoral votes. There can and likely will be a lot of shuffling among those states in the coming days and weeks. [And in light of the fact that this Quinnipiac poll is likely an outlier, the likelihood of future Florida movement is high. Still, Florida has been stubbornly camped out just under the Lean/Toss Up line for weeks.]

What can be said now that Florida is a Lean Biden state is that the former vice president is more than five points up in states that sum to 278 electoral votes. That, in a nutshell, is the importance of the Sunshine state in the electoral college calculus. With Florida a lean, it would take at least a five point shift in the president's direction to reclaim enough states and get to 270. This may be the nadir for Trump, and although there are still more than 100 days until the election, the climb is quite steep.

The other thing the Florida push into the Lean Biden category does is to rejigger the order on the Electoral College Spectrum above. And that jockeying among those states clustered around the Lean/Toss Up line uproots New Hampshire and Pennsylvania from the tipping point in the electoral college. Wisconsin now has that honor. The Badger state's ten electoral votes would put Biden over 270 with six additional states of cushion while it would get Trump to exactly 270 is he is able to claw those six Biden toss ups back and add Wisconsin.

The day's changes also brought changes to the Watch List below. Florida and Pennsylvania basically switched places on the List. Moreover, a day after Texas rejoined the List, the Spry survey pushed it back off again. But the average in the Lone Star state is just outside of one point in Trump's direction.

Finally, another bit of context to add to the Florida shift concerns Nevada and New Hampshire. Both remain underpolled at the moment, and both remain Biden Toss Ups. Without new data reflecting any recent changes in either, both will stay toss ups at FHQ. However, if those states are like others around them in the order on election day in 2016, then both are very likely leans toward Biden as well. Shift those ten electoral votes deeper into Biden territory and Florida likely becomes the tipping point state in the order.

But again, that will take the release of additional surveys.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Wisconsin	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/19/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.