The Electoral College Map (9/13/20)

Update for September 13.

Sunday brought a couple of new polls from a pair of target states that are familiar territory if one read Saturday's update. To top it off, both YouGov polls in Arizona and Minnesota were both quite close to the existing FHQ averages for both Biden and Trump in the two states. That was not necessary a recipe for change, significant or otherwise, in the averages around here, but it does help to further clarify the state of the race in these two states.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 47, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.28]
The latest YouGov battleground tracker survey of Arizona is its first update there since an early July poll, a period during which Joe Biden enjoyed a bit of a surge nationwide. That surge has ebbed in some states through the lens of other pollsters' efforts, but that is not exactly clear here. In fact, the former vice president and Trump were knotted at 46 two months ago. Biden has subsequently broken that tie in the series, inching out to a lead just within the margin of error. Yet, the Biden advantage in the state has consistently been above three points here at FHQ. This did little to change that. The survey actually further buttressed the existing averages in the Grand Canyon state since it tracked so closely with the 48-44 (rounded) lead Biden has there in the FHQ averages.


Minnesota
(Biden 50, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.58]
Different day, different pollster. But the results were the exact same today as they were on Saturday in Minnesota. The YouGov battleground tracker, like the Siena poll a day ago, found Biden up by nine. And like the Arizona poll above it tracks very closely to the FHQ average shares of support for both candidates. Trump runs a little behind his average in the survey but Biden's is right on target. Unlike Arizona, this is the first time that YouGov was in the field in Minnesota, so there is no direct point of comparison. However, of all the polls that have been conducted in the Land of 10,000 Lakes in September, Biden has been at or above 50 percent in half of them while Trump has struggled to break into the mid-40s.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	UT-6 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (272 | 286)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NE CD2-1 NV-6 (279 | 266)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (147)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
ME CD1-1 RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Needless to say, with a couple of additions that so closely reflected the pre-existing averages in Arizona and Minnesota, not much change at FHQ on the precipice of a new work week. The map, Spectrum and Watch List all remain unchanged from a day ago. That means that Pennsylvania retains the distinction of being the tipping point state, where Biden crosses over 270 electoral votes or Trump would if his campaign is able to change course in the states between the partisan line and the Keystone state. Yet, Pennsylvania continues to be a Lean Biden state, more than five points out of the president's grasp. That is the ground he has to make up over the next 51 days.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 13 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/12/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/12/20)

Update for September 12.

Changes (September 12)
State	Before	After
Nebraska CD2	Lean Biden	Toss Up Biden

The weekend began with a bang on the polling front. Siena and the Upshot (NYT) together released a round of surveys from a quartet of states that is all being targeted by the both campaigns, but with a couple -- Nevada and New Hampshire -- that have seen far less polling activity than their margins here at FHQ would otherwise indicate. Those updates are welcome, providing a bit more information about the state of play in each. And while Trump may be stuck in the low 40s in all four states, Biden is not that far out in front of him (with the exception of Minnesota).

Perhaps more importantly, since Nebraska's second congressional district has just one survey in calendar 2020, its averages remain tethered to the swings in other states that finished around it in 2016. Narrowing margins in states like Arizona, Florida and Michigan have nudged the FHQ average margin in the Omaha-based district down below the Lean/Toss up barrier on the Biden side of the partisan line. But the main thing with NE CD 2 is that it is very closely aligned with that five point line at the moment. While it is by definition a Toss Up, it is only barely so right now (currently Biden +4.99). And that is information that should be shared since it is also so close to the tipping point.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 50, Trump 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.29]
The only new survey on Saturday that was not a part of the Siena wave was from Gravis Marketing out of the Grand Canyon state. Arizona has been close, but has consistently been tipped toward Biden. The former vice president has recently been in the upper 40s while Trump has tended to be in the mid-40s with some broader variability. The margin in this poll, then, is consistent with margins elsewhere, but both candidates are running ahead of their averages established here at FHQ. But the reality is that, once in the upper 3s, the margin has gradually ticked down closer to three points during September. That said, this poll is in contrast with the last Gravis poll of Arizona back in June. During Biden's peak nationally, Trump led in that survey by four. Poll over poll, Biden gained five points while lost one.


Minnesota
(Biden 50, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.48]
Further north in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, Siena/NYT found the former vice president up nine points, which does not make Minnesota look like a state that should be targeted down the stretch. Clinton did edge Trump there by one in 2016, but the average swing nationwide toward the Democrats since then would put Minnesota about Biden +8.5. That nine point advantage in the Siena survey is pretty consistent with that. However, that differs from some of the other polls in the series. The big thing for the Trump campaign in Minnesota moving is that Biden is already above 50 percent in this poll and at FHQ.


Nevada
(Biden 46, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.47]
One of those states that differs in the Siena/NYT series from the picture painted in Minnesota is underpolled Nevada. There just has not been a very robust timeline of polls in the Silver state in calendar 2020, so there really is no firm grasp on how things evolved or did not during Biden's early summer surge. But what can be said is that in what little polling there has been in Nevada, Biden has tended to have a lower share of support than in other states that were around Nevada in the order at the end of the 2016 campaign. Unlike in Minnesota, Biden is and has been in the mid-40s in Nevada and the margins have typically been in the mid-single digits. Trump's work there is less about combining efforts to improve his stock and tear down Biden than it is focusing on the former. And that is less likely to be about the type of persuasion that would woo undecideds and more about ensuring that more of the right people turn out to vote.

New Hampshire
(Biden 45, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.45]
A state that has been closely aligned with Nevada in the presidential election cycles of the recent past is New Hampshire. And that is true in the Siena/NYT surveys as well. The Granite state is another that was a close Hillary Clinton win in 2016 and where one would, if assuming a uniform swing since 2016, expect the margin to be a little higher in 2020. The FHQ margin there is over six points, but even that change runs a little under the average swing from four years ago (~7.5 points). That divergence is even more acute in the poll released today, where Biden leads by just three. Both candidates are running behind the pace set in 2016, but undecided/other remains fairly high in this poll. That is not a dynamic witnessed elsewhere, but it something -- low survey standing of both candidates -- that Trump took advantage of four years ago.

Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.28]
Finally, if it is a day that ends in Y then there is probably a new poll out in Wisconsin. And yes, the Badger state was part of the Siena/NYT wave as well, the only state among the four that did not stay blue in 2016. Like Minnesota, this poll just "fits in" better with other recent survey work in the state. That five point Biden edge is consistent with other polls in the Badger state. But there is more polling in Minnesota and Wisconsin to more clearly indicate that than in either Nevada or New Hampshire. But this one is pretty close to the FHQ average there where Biden is ahead 49-43. 

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	UT-6 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (272 | 286)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NE CD2-1 NV-6 (279 | 266)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (147)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
ME CD1-1 RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

FHQ could take this opportunity to once again decry the lack of polling in Nevada and New Hampshire, but instead, thanks to Siena for wading into both to get a sense of what the race looks like in each. And the take home is probably "closer than one might otherwise think." Still, that had little measurable impact on either state at FHQ. The margins dropped in both, but Nevada and New Hampshire not only stayed in the categories they were in a day ago, but they also retained their positions in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum. Both are on the Biden side of Wisconsin despite looking closer in this Siena wave. Meanwhile, Minnesota, still closely aligned with Michigan in the order, switched places with the Great Lakes state after inching under it earlier in the week.

The Watch List line up below remains the same ten states as yesterday, but the possible switch in Nebraska's 2nd has flipped since then. It is now a Toss Up Biden state within range of once again becoming a Lean Biden.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 12 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/11/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/11/20)

Update for September 11.

As the work week came to a close there were six more state or district-level surveys released, helping to further clarify the post-convention picture of the race to 270 electoral votes. And while there were certainly a few polls from battlegrounds mixed in, it was updates in some more sporadically surveyed areas like Indiana and Oregon that did a lot of that clarifying.

Polling Quick Hits:
Indiana
(Trump 53, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +13.95]
The Hoosier state has not been polled all that often, but the surveys that have been conducted, including the latest update from Change Research have been remarkably stable. That is not only true  within the two polls Change has had in the field in Indiana, but also across all pollsters that have done public opinion work there in 2020. Simply put, Trump has reliably been in the low 50s for the most part as Biden has been camped out in the upper 30s. And that does not diverge much from where Indiana ended up on election day 2016. Trump is running behind where he was four years ago and Biden has only slightly improved on Clinton's showing there.

Maine CD1
(Biden 58, Trump 35)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +22.51]
The AARP survey of Maine that was released a day ago also broke the race down by congressional district and the results were not all that surprising. Biden is handily ahead in the first district which is what drives the 14 point margin statewide. Even then, the former vice president is running a couple of points ahead of Clinton's pace in CD1 while Trump is more than five points off his performance there four years ago. This is an electoral vote that is safely in Biden's column.


Maine CD2
(Biden 49, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.07]
And while the second district is currently in Biden's column as well, it is not nearly so safely there. In fact, the second remains the most competitive state or district on the Biden side of the partisan line. The AARP survey is consistent with that albeit with a margin that is tilted the most toward the former vice president of any of the scant polling conducted in the more rural northern district that Trump carried in 2016. But again, things have swung toward the Democrats in 2020 polling relative to the election results in 2016. There Biden has improved more than four points on Clinton's showing in the second and Trump is running more than seven points off his 2016 win in the second. That is a significant 11 point swing, one that comes in above the average swing of 7.5 points across all states.


North Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.55]
After recently polling the competitive and/or targeted states within the Rust Belt, Pulse Opinion Research went back into the field in North Carolina and found President Trump up a point. That is the same margin the president enjoyed in the Tar Heel state in the firm's August survey. So there is no net difference from before the conventions to after them. This poll does fit in with the September polling in the state, but it does not exactly jibe well with a post-convention series from Pulse that also had Ohio as Biden +4. Given where each state is in the order below on the Spectrum, one might expect to see the two trade those poll numbers. That variability is not out of the ordinary however, and both states are close, but on opposite sides of the partisan line at FHQ than where recent Pulse polling found them.

Oregon
(Biden 51, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +15.16]
DHM Research provided the first glimpse at the race in Oregon during calendar 2020. And the battle for the Beaver state's seven electoral votes looks a lot like where the Clinton-Trump race ended there in 2016, stability that runs counter to the 2016-to-2020 swing witnessed in other states across the country. That may offer some data, but not data that really clarified things in Oregon other than to indicated that Biden's advantage there is likely safe. 

Wisconsin
(Biden 52, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.31]
Finally, Emerson conducted a survey of likely voters in Wisconsin. This is the sixth day out of the last seven in which at least one poll of the Badger state has been released. This poll and others in that span have all painted a particular picture of the battle for the ten electoral votes in one of the most closely contested states of the 2016 cycle. It is a picture of Biden consistently ahead by 5-8 points, a range that has kept the vice president's edge in Wisconsin stable at more than six points. Wisconsin is just to the Biden side of tipping point Pennsylvania in the order on the Spectrum below and is one of those states that has more noticeably shifted toward the Democrats since 2016.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	UT-6 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 NE CD2-1 (273 | 286)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (147)	MI-16 (228)	IA-6 (185)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
ME CD1-1 RI-4 (152)	MN-10 (238)	GA-16 (179)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

It was another day with another pretty healthy polling output, but one that did not shake the status quo much at FHQ. The map and Spectrum look on Friday just as they did on Thursday, but the Watch List lost Maine's second congressional district. That one electoral vote is no longer within a fraction of a point of jumping the partisan line back into Trump territory, but it is only just outside that one point threshold at this point. That is not a major change -- ME CD2 is still close. -- but it is a change nonetheless. The List of states to watch for new polling data is now down to just ten states and districts and only three of those -- a trio of Trump Toss Ups -- are in any measurable way close to moving into Biden's coalition of states and changing the overall electoral vote tally.

In the end, this has been a work week that has been pretty stable through the lens of the FHQ graduated weighted average formula. And stable is not what the president needs now with just 53 days to go until election day (not to mention voters already voting).



Where things stood at FHQ on September 11 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/10/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/8/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/10/20)

Update for September 10.

Another day, another raft of new polling releases. The map remains the same as it has been since Ohio jumped the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum to join President Trump's coalition of states to open September. And while there are some subtle changes under the hood here at FHQ, the changes just have not followed. Noticeably, states like Florida and Minnesota have witnessed their margins decrease, slightly tightening the gap. That trajectory is important with 54 days to go, but if subtle is what passes for change, then the same basic dynamic is likely to carry on: Biden holding on to the lead. 

Today's poll additions did little to disrupt that. 


Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan
(Biden 53, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.38]
Pulse Opinion Research continued their survey work across the Rust Belt. Having conducted recent polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the firm turned its sights toward the Great Lakes state. Yes, the Pennsylvania poll was "off" compared to the others in the series, but the rest follow the established order here at FHQ with Michigan to the Biden side of Wisconsin which is on the Biden side of Ohio in the rank order (depicted on the Spectrum below). This poll in particular has both candidates running above their FHQ average level of support, but Biden more so than Trump. Still, this survey fits in well with the recent polls in the field there. It may be on the high side of the range of margins in recent surveys, but it is comfortably within that range.


Minnesota
(Biden 49, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.36]
Further west in Minnesota, Survey USA found the race for the ten electoral votes in the Land of 10,000 Lakes more comfortably in Biden's coalition of states than has been the case in the convention/post-convention environment. But that was more a function of Trump's positioning than Biden's. The president at 40 percent underperforms his FHQ average in Minnesota by a couple of points in this on. Every time the margin ticks down in Minnesota, a poll like this comes along to stabilize it once more. For a state that the Trump campaign is targeting as a flip opportunity, Biden is over 50 percent in the averages, making it a difficult needle to thread between now and election day. That is even more true considering in-person early voting begins in Minnesota a week from tomorrow. 


Oklahoma
(Trump 60, Biden 35)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +22.16]
The good news on the day came from Sooner state. The first Sooner Poll of calendar 2020 had Trump more in line with his 2016 share of support in the state than most previous polls. But while this survey buoys the president's support there in FHQ averages, he is still off by more than seven and a half points there compared to four years ago. Biden, meanwhile, has improved upon Clinton's showing in 2016 by more than six points. Sure, Oklahoma is a state far off on the far right end of the Spectrum that the president is going to carry. But that it has shifted nearly 14 points toward the Democrats in the last four years says something about the state of the overall race. 

Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.24]
TargetSmart conducted its first survey in the Keystone state in 2020 and the effort is mostly consistent with the picture laid out at FHQ. It nailed the Trump number (when rounding the FHQ average) and overstated Biden's level of support by a couple of points relative to the established average. And considering that Biden has been at or north of 50 percent in the commonwealth in four of the five polls in the field during September, that does not come across as too egregious a miss. In fact, it is well within what one would expect from polling variability. 

AARP Battleground Polls 

The AARP polled eleven states on both the presidential race and competitive Senate race where applicable. FHQ will not go through them one by one, but since there is no previous wave to compare with, the focus instead in the analysis will be on the order of states in the results. One can certainly quibble with the margins in some of these, but the underlying rank order of states in the eleven polls is close to that reflected in the Spectrum below. Maine and Colorado are both Strong Biden states and are flipped on that end of the order. [Plus it was nice to get a Maine update. Iowa too, for that matter.] But other than those two, only Georgia is out of place in the order, coming across as more Biden-friendly than has been true in most recent polls out of the Peach state. However, Georgia is and has been close at FHQ for a while now. And Biden +1 results are not uncommon there. On the whole, this group of surveys maintained the status quo order here. 

Maine: Biden +14 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.37]

Colorado: Biden +10 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.72]

Michigan: Biden +7 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.38]

Wisconsin: Biden +5 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.30]

Pennsylvania: Biden +3 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.24]

Florida: Biden +2 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.02]

Arizona: Biden +1 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.33]

Georgia: Biden +1 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.66]

North Carolina: tied [Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.61]

Iowa: Trump +2 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.49]

Montana: Trump +7 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.81]



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	UT-6 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 NE CD2-1 (273 | 286)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 | 219)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (147)	MI-16 (228)	IA-6 (185)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
ME CD1-1 RI-4 (152)	MN-10 (238)	GA-16 (179)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, it was another day with a rush of new polling releases from places that will settle who wins the electoral college in November but with little to show for the additions. The map stayed the same as did the Spectrum. Only the Watch List saw some change with Maine drifting above Biden +11. That said, there remain eleven states and districts within a point of changing categories, but with just four clustered around the partisan line. Yet, Florida's average margin has continued to draw closer during this week. It is now likely to come off the List -- no longer within a fraction of a point of going Lean Biden -- given any poll that finds the gap lower than four points. There are eleven to watch, but five to really keep an eye on when any new polls are released.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 10 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:

The Electoral College Map (9/9/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/8/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/7/20)


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