The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)

Update for September 21.

Changes (September 21)
State	Before	After
Louisiana	Strong Trump	Lean Trump

The new work week commenced with an interesting line up of polls from mainly southern states and another round of polling from out of Maine. On the whole, it was a group of first time poll and it was good news for Joe Biden. But the swing though the Deep South from Tyson Group came with a number of surveys that do not exactly jibe well with the existing polling in those states. The Alabama poll is certainly one at which to look, but it did not have the impact that the latest Louisiana survey had. While the Yellowhammer state remained a Strong Trump state despite an unusually tight margin, the Pelican state survey was enough to nudge Louisiana back down below the Strong/Lean line into the very upper reaches of the Lean Trump category.

Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 48, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +13.34]
The Alabama poll in question came from the Tyson Group and had Trump just four points ahead in a state the president carried by nearly 30 points in 2016. There has been a swing toward Democrats in 2020 polling, but it has not been that large. Not by a long shot. This one is an outlier, plain and simple. No Democrat has finished above 40 percent in any of the previous three cycles and no Republican has ended up below 60 precent. Now compare that the numbers above. Okay, moving on...

Florida
(Biden 46, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.71]
The Tyson Group was also in the field last month in the Sunshine state with a survey that compared to the Alabama poll above at least ended in the range of both candidates' shares of support in other polls around the same time. It had Biden running a couple of points behind where he is now in the FHQ averages and Trump was within a point of his established average here. Overall, this one had minimal impact on where Florida is positioned. It remains on a collision course with Arizona, but with an average margin that remains just above that of the Grand Canyon state as of now.


Georgia
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.22]
The latest survey from GBAO_ comes form the Peach state and finds Biden narrowly ahead by three points. While that may be a bit more Biden-friendly than some other recent Georgia polling, it is not that far off. In fact, the difference is completely on the Biden number here. The firm nailed Trump's share established here in the FHQ averages, but had the former vice president three points out in front of his. Overall, this poll did not uproot Georgia from its position as the most competitive Trump toss up. It narrowed the president's advantage by a hair, but did not alter where the state is in the order depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below.

Louisiana
(Trump 48, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +9.63]
There has not been an extensive level of polling in Louisiana, but the Tyson Group survey of the Pelican state did not veer too far away from some of the work that has been in the field there in calendar 2020. But it would represent a 14 point swing toward the Democrats since 2016. Yes, that is about double the average swing at FHQ, but is not nearly as egregious as the Alabama outlier above. The rest of the Louisiana polling indicates a more modest swing. Yes, one that is above average at 10 points, but Biden's gains there are consistent with his average change across all states: around three points. Trump, on the other hand, has lost more than seven points in the Pelican state as compared to 2016, a shift that runs about three points over his average change across all states.

Maine
(Biden 51, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.98]

Maine CD1
(Biden 55, Trump 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.95]

Maine CD2
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.38]
The Suffolk of Maine just does not show that much divergence from either recent polling in the state (and in the two districts) nor the averages here at FHQ. The statewide poll and the data broken down by congressional district all paint pictures consistent with what has been established in the Pine Tree state. Needless to say, that does not really affect the average margins across any of the three jurisdictions there. Importantly, Biden remains narrowly ahead in the race for the one electoral vote in the competitive second district.


Mississippi
(Trump 50, Biden 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +10.30]
What was said above about Maine can be extended to the Tyson Group survey of Mississippi as well. The only difference is that there have been fewer polls conducted in the Magnolia state. But this  poll like the Tyson poll of Florida was on par with other surveys that have been in the field in the state: Trump is ahead and comfortably so. And the findings are consistent with the candidates' average shares of support at FHQ. Little difference from the existing average margin means little change to the average. Mississippi remains just above the Strong/Lean line among the president's coalition of states.


North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 49)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.54]
The one repeat survey of the day comes from Emerson out of the Tar Heel state. The college pollster was in the field with a survey a month ago and found just the opposite of what it finds in September. Rather than the president being up 51-49, it is the former vice president who holds the same advantage now. One could perhaps chalk that up to convention effects, but realistically, this is likely just noise in what has been a very close race for the 15 electoral votes at stake in North Carolina. But it is a very close race that has consistently given the edge -- but that very small one -- to Biden.


Texas
(Biden 48, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.94]
Finally, it is not necessarily unusual to see Biden ahead in a poll of Texas, but the last Tyson Group survey has the former vice president at his ceiling so far in polling of the Lone Star state and Trump near his floor there. That means that both are in range of other surveys that have been conducted there, but the Biden lead in the poll is close to the maximum. That was enough to nudge the average margin in Texas below one point, but not enough to push the state over the partisan line. Like North Carolina above, Texas has been close but has been consistently tilted in Trump's direction.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 ME CD1-1 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

This group of polls had some impact (and some of it because of an overall lack of polling in some of those Deep South states). But overall, the influence of these polls added today was pretty minimal. Yes, Louisiana shifted on the map and moved up a few cells on the Spectrum just inside the upper end of the Lean Trump category. Alabama also moved up a few spots in the order to the top of the far right column on the Spectrum. As noted above, however, the Yellowhammer state remains a Strong Trump state. No other state moved any on the Spectrum, but ME CD1 shifted below rather than above Maryland in the order. It was a change, but a subtle one.

Where the most alteration occurred between Sunday and Monday was on the Watch List. Three states  -- Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas -- rejoined the group of states within a point of changing categories here at FHQ. While there were polls in Louisiana and Texas to trigger those changes, there was nothing new out of Arkansas. The lone poll in the Natural state earlier in the summer means that the averages in Arkansas are still tethered to other states around which it finished in 2016. And the drop in the average in Alabama based on the Tyson poll influenced the projected margin in Arkansas, moving it back on the Watch List just above the Strong/Lean line.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 21 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Texas	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

Update for September 20.

As the weekend comes a close with just 44 days until November 3, there was another round of polls released. Seven new surveys from six states -- three current Biden states and three Trump states -- that are Lean or closer in the FHQ averages had something good for both candidates.

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.74]
The Sunshine state continues to be probably the clearest example of a narrowing race. Florida still favors Biden, but that advantage has drawn closer and closer over time, and the new YouGov survey did little to alter that trajectory. If anything, the trend line in the YouGov series in Florida is a microcosm of that change. The firm was last in the field in the Sunshine state in early July and had Biden pulling in the same 48 percent support. Trump, however, has made up ground since that time, adding four percent to bring him within two.


Georgia
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.38]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies may not have conducted a survey in the Peach state until now, but their findings in this first poll there nearly match the established average shares of support both Biden and Trump hold at FHQ. Trump's 46 in the poll is the same as his average share of support while Biden would round up to 46 from 45.9. So it is not that far off for starters, but also has little impact on the average margin. It nudges it up in Trump's direction by the slightest amount, but keeps Georgia as the most competitive state on the president's side of the partisan line. Georgia may or may not turn blue in November, but that it is the closest state on the board says a lot about where this race stands. If Georgia remains in that position on election day, then Biden is likely going to be in good shape if the order of states holds up and the same basic uniform swing persists.

Minnesota
(Biden 51, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.25]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies also had not been in the field in the North Star state. But there, too, the firm shows a race that is remarkably consistent with the existing averages (candidate shares of support and margin) at FHQ. The 51-42 Biden lead in this survey mirrors the average 51-42 lead the former vice president has here. It is also in line with the bulk of September polling in the the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Again, as with Georgia above, such a survey does little to change the outlook in a state that has been a flip target of the Trump campaign.


Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.71]
This was the first Siena/NYT Upshot_ survey of the Treasure state, so there is no direct comparison, but it is another poll that tracks fairly closely to the existing FHQ averages. After rounding, Trump leads here 50-43. And while that is a good sign for the president, it comes with a significant caveat. Montana was a state the president carried by 20 points four years ago. And while he is unlikely to relinquish the state to Biden, the 13 point swing in the Democrats' direction is notable. In calendar 2020 polling in the state, the president has run nearly six points behind his 2016 pace, just barely cracking 50 percent. Biden, meanwhile, has boosted the Democrats' share of support by almost eight points.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Climate Nexus | Biden 47, Trump 45 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.20]
The Keystone state remains the tipping point state in the order of states depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below and is just on the Lean side of the five point line separating the Biden Lean and Toss Up states. The Climate Nexus survey may be more in line with that, but the Trafalgar poll has the advantage of being the second poll in a series. And the early July release had Biden up by a margin consistent with the current average margin during Biden's peak period in 2020 polling. But that five point edge for the former vice president in June/July has shrunk to just two points now at Trafalgar. Unlike, say, Florida above, however, Pennsylvania has not seen the same type of narrowing of late. Mid-single digit margins in Biden's favor have been more prevalent in Pennsylvania polling in September.


Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.14]
Finally, another YouGov battleground tracker continues to show a close race for Texas' 38 electoral votes. The Lone Star state continues to tilt in Trump's direction, but it also continues to be much closer than it has in more than a generation. But the persistence of that narrow advantage for the president there can be seen in the two polls conducted by YouGov in Texas. The one point lead Trump had in the July poll has bumped up to two in September with the president trending toward 50 percent. No, that is not indicative of any tightening, but it is evidence that some wavering support has come home to the president in Texas.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Three red state polls and three blue state polls did little to alter the outlook here at FHQ despite coming from a host of states that are among the most highly targeted. In most cases, the polls ended up closely mirroring the existing graduated weighted averages. The map remained the same and the Spectrum and Watch List did as well. The race will enter the new work week -- just six weeks out from election day -- looking much as it did when the last week began.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 20 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

Update for September 19.

There was not a lot of polling to sift through on Saturday, but what little was out there had an impact on how those states -- well, state and district -- are positioned here at FHQ. Both Missouri and Nebraska's second congressional district have spent time this summer hopping back and forth between the Toss Up and Lean categories on their respective sides of the partisan line. Both, however, now appear to have slipped more comfortably into lean territory, Missouri on the Trump side and NE CD2 on Biden's. And both, as one can see below in the updated margins, are mirror images of each other.

Yet, FHQ is tempted to say that with the race tightening in some important states, Missouri is further out of reach to Biden than the Omaha-centered district is to Trump. That narrowing in states like Florida in particular has a trajectory that has brought the state closer to Trump. But that is not a trend line everywhere. And it may not include Nebraska's second. Honestly, there just is not enough polling there to arrive confidently at any conclusion. What polling has come out of the Cornhusker state has shown a very stable race for that one electoral vote however.

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri
(Trump 53, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.32]
The eight point advantage Remington Research Group found in the Show-Me state in June remains now. But both candidates have siphoned off a couple of additional points from undecided/other in the time since then. Even though this survey has Trump as his peak in Missouri polling in calendar 2020, the president is overall still lagging nearly six points behind in the FHQ averages where he ended up on election day in 2016. Biden may have improved over Clinton's pace, but it does not appear as if that is going to do much other than to reduce the margin in a state that Trump is likely to hold in 45 days' time.


Nebraska CD2
(Biden 51, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.60]
Again, there has not been much polling out of NE CD2, but there was a two-for from Global Strategy Group; a new poll and results from a July survey as well. The change? Trump gained a point over the last two months but continues to trail by mid-single digits in the Omaha-area district. In the three polls conducted there that have made it out for public consumption, Biden has been at 51 percent in each while Trump has been at 44 or 45. If that was not such a small pool of surveys, and all from Democratic-aligned pollsters, FHQ might venture that the race there is remarkably stable. It may be, but these available surveys may also be a bit Democratic-friendly. Still, the static nature of the limited polling, even if tilted somewhat in the Democrats' direction, is not exactly good news for a president who narrowly carried the district in 2016.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Both Missouri and NE CD2 moved deeper into their respective coalitions of states with the introduction of these new surveys. Missouri changed spots with South Carolina and came off the Watch List below in the process. Similarly, Nebraska's second moved off of the tipping point cell and into the middle Democratic column on the Spectrum while also sliding off the Watch List. Neither are fundamental shake ups on the Spectrum, but both moving of the List brings that group of states -- those within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- down to just seven states. But nearly half -- a trio that includes Georgia, Iowa and Ohio -- are within range of jumping the partisan line and altering the overall projected electoral vote tally.

All in all, it was a quiet Saturday, but with surveys that created some subtle changes here at FHQ.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 19 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/18/20)

Update for September 18.

Changes (September 18)
State	Before	After
Nebraska CD2	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden

At the end of the work week there was a flurry of polling activity out of the Rust Belt and Sun Belt targets which not only have seen the most campaign and media attention in 2020, but have also been surveyed the most frequently. There are the usual six -- Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- but add to that more data out of Maine (especially the competitive CD2 in the Pine Tree state) and another in Ohio. Those two have been underpolled compared to the core six battlegrounds, but any updates from either or both provides an opportunity to better calibrate both as election day nears.

The changes in Arizona and Florida once again had an impact on Nebraska's second congressional district, shifting it back into the Lean Biden category. Again, this is less about the movement than it is about where the district is positioned in the order. It rests right on that Lean/Toss Up line at Biden +5. And as long as it sits on limited polling data, then its position will remain contingent upon how states that finished near it in 2016 have fared. Additional polling in those states and NE CD2's proximity to the Lean/Toss Up line means that it is apt to jump back and forth across the line as it has this week.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.61]
Across most of the new polls today, there are previous iterations from the pollsters that were in the field. That is true of Siena/NYT Upshot in Arizona. Last in the field there in June, Siena found a 48-41 Biden advantage during what could be considered Biden's peak in calendar 2020 polling nationwide. The marginal change -- Biden gaining a net two points over the last three months -- is more a story of stability than of change. As such it does not fit the trend witnessed in other states of late: that Biden's peak in June/July and basically came back to his position prior to that surge period. That stability, however, may be less an issue than the gap between the Biden and Trump in the Grand Canyon state in this poll. It had the effect of pushing Arizona's margin to within range of Florida's. The two states have been on something of a collision course over the last couple of weeks with Florida becoming more competitive and the margin in Arizona growing.


Maine
(Biden 55, Trump 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.09]

Maine CD2
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.45]
Siena/NYT Upshot conducted a poll in Maine, their first there in calendar 2020. While there is not a natural point of comparison within a series of polls by Siena, the statewide margin and the gap in ME CD2 are consistent with the existing averages in both. That is probably more true in the district than statewide where Biden ran a couple of points ahead of his FHQ average share of support and Trump lagged nearly two points behind his. But the more narrow margin in ME CD2 perhaps casts some doubt on the Biden +9 from Quinnipiac earlier in the week. It stood out from other polling before today and still does once the Siena poll was added. Statewide, Maine is looking comfortably blue and while ME CD2 tilts in Biden's direction, the former vice president's edge there is small.


Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.53]
EPIC-MRA has now conducted five polls in the Great Lakes state in calendar 2020. The latest finds Biden at his lowest point in any of those surveys in the series. But the lead is as wide now as it was in the time before his peak during the former vice president's June/July surge (both nationally and in this series). The trend line of that margin may have regressed to the pre-surge mean, but both candidates have lost support since the first poll in the series back in January. On top of that, this most recent poll in the series does not diverge too much from the FHQ averages showing Biden up 49-42 (rounded).


North Carolina
(Biden 45, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.53]
The biggest change in the Siena/NYT Upshot wave was in North Carolina. As in Arizona, the last time Siena conducted a survey in the Tar Heel state was in June. But unlike the Grand Canyon state, the intervening period was not exactly marked by stability. Instead, a nine point Biden advantage in June shrunk to just a point in September. The four points Biden lost seemingly went right into Trump's column. There is no pre-surge poll from Siena in this case, so one cannot as easily suggest that the race for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes has regressed to the mean, but given recent polling from other pollsters, one can conclude that North Carolina is a bit closer now than it was. But the FHQ average margin in the Tar Heel state remains fairly stable in the 1-2 point range.


Civiqs (Rust Belt Rising September wave)
The top priorities on the checklist of items to look at in these waves of polls is to explore not only what has changed since the last iteration but whether the order holds up compared to the depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum below. On the first item, the growth in the Biden lead in Michigan will catch one's eye, but that Trump took back the advantage in Ohio is noteworthy as well. But the changes were minimal for the most part from August to now. The order of the states also matches the FHQ order with Ohio on the Trump end and Michigan on the Biden end. Michigan, however, is a bit further off from the tighter bond it has on the Spectrum with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Michigan: Biden +11 (Biden +4, Trump -4 since the August wave)
Ohio: Trump +3 (Biden -2, Trump +1)
Pennsylvania: Biden +7 (Biden +1, Trump +1)
Wisconsin: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump -1)


Redfield and Wilton Strategies (Swing state September wave)
Applying the same checklist to the latest R&W cluster of polls there was not a lot of movement between early September and now. Biden did lose ground in both Michigan and Wisconsin, but maintained leads that were greater than or consistent with the FHQ average margins in both. And North Carolina flipped from favoring Trump about two weeks ago to giving Biden the edge now. But that may just be noise. North Carolina is close as FHQ has said a number of times and has reached a point where Biden and Trump both hold leads in the polls out of the Tar Heel state, but they are within a narrow range. That is no different in this wave. As for the order of the six core battlegrounds, that, too, holds up for the most part. Only Arizona is "out of position" on the Biden side of Florida. But again, the two states have been on something of a collision course of late and if current trends hold will likely trade spots on the Spectrum in the coming days.

Arizona: Biden +5 (Biden -1, Trump +1 since the early September wave)
Florida: Biden +3 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Michigan: Biden +10 (Biden -2, Trump -1)
North Carolina: Biden +2 (Biden +4, Trump +1)
Pennsylvania: Biden +5 (Biden +1, Trump +1)
Wisconsin: Biden +6 (Biden -3, Trump +/-0)

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (252)	AK-3 (125)	IN-11 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 NE CD2-1 (273 | 286)	MO-10 (122)	UT-6 (49)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	KY-8 (43)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (35)
NY-29 (105)	VA-13 (201)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	MS-6 (93)	ND-3 (22)
ME CD1-1 MD-10 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	AR-6 (87)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	NE-2 (81)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	LA-8 (79)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There was a lot to look at today, but little in the way of change here at FHQ. Yes, Nebraska's second district shifted again, and subtle changes on the map, Spectrum and Watch List followed. None of that is surprising. Neither really is the fact that Ohio nudged past Georgia deeper into the Trump coalition of states on the Spectrum. On the weight of that Civiqs survey, Ohio leaves Georgia behind as the most competitive Trump state on the board, the state right up against the partisan line separating the two candidates' coalitions of states from each other.

The Watch List remains as it did a day ago. The nine states and districts are still the ones to watch when new polling data comes in. But only Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are within range of jumping the partisan line and changing the overall projected electoral vote tally.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 18 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/17/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/20)

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