Monday, May 29, 2023

What California Republicans Decide on Delegate Allocation May Matter a Lot. Here's how.

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Over the weekend, there was a new poll out of California taking the pulse of, among other things, the state of the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The Institute of Governmental Studies (UC Berkeley) poll showed former President Donald Trump up big over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the Golden state. 

But there are some important factors to make note of about where the candidates are relative to one another in a Super Tuesday state that has undefined delegate allocation rules for 2024 at this point. Despite the sunsetting of the rules used in the largely uncontested 2020 Republican primary, California Republicans will not use the current winner-take-all by congressional district method that serves as a baseline method. Well, the state party will not use those allocation rules if they want to avoid losing half of their delegates under Republican National Committee (RNC) rules. 

So what are the alternatives? And perhaps more importantly, what strategic differences could they make for the candidates?

First of all, if the California Republican Party later this year readopts rules similar to those it used in 2020, then Trump would be looking at a big net delegate advantage coming out of the California primary. Granted, that would be weighed against delegates won by other candidates (or not) in other Super Tuesday states. But despite being a blue state, California remains the biggest delegate prize in the Republican process. 

But not as big as it could be.

While Trump, with a nearly two to one advantage over DeSantis in this poll, would hypothetically take a sizable net delegate gain from California, that big plurality would fall short of a majority. And under the 2020 rules, a majority win would activate a winner-take-all trigger for all 169 delegates. Again, Trump would miss out on that with just 44 percent support statewide. However, that 44-26 advantage would allocate the former president 106 delegates to DeSantis's 63. [No other candidates would qualify for delegates by virtue of missing the 20 percent threshold.] By narrowly missing out on a majority, Trump's delegate advantage goes from all 169 delegates to just 43. 

That is a big difference. Yes, a 43 delegate chunk like that is nothing to dismiss. But that is more easily neutralized across other Super Tuesday states for Trump opponents than if the former president had won all of the delegates from California. 

But what if California Republicans opted to split up the delegates, to not pool the at-large, RNC and congressional district delegates? That may also cut further in to any Trump advantage. The statewide results would only affect the allocation of 13 delegates, the at-large (10) and RNC (3) delegates. With a 44-26 win in a California primary, Trump would only win eight of those 13 delegates. DeSantis would be awarded the remaining five and again, no one else would qualify. 

By not pooling all of the delegates, the district delegates -- three per district -- would be allocated based on the result in each of the 52 congressional districts in the Golden state. Trump may win a majority in some of those, something that would net him all three delegates from such a district. But DeSantis may peak above 50 percent in some districts as well. The bigger thing may be the districts where no one wins a majority. The plurality winner would get two delegates and the runner up would get one. And if a third candidate qualifies in a handful of districts, it could, depending on how the rules are crafted, bring the winner (and assume that is Trump for the purposes of this exercise) down to just one delegate. The top three candidates over 20 percent would all get one delegate. 

Understandably, this gets messy in a hurry. However, the point here is that, depending on 1) the allocation rules and 2) how the primary vote is distributed across California, it could shrink Trump's net delegate advantage, making it more possible to neutralize the Golden state in the process. But it could also grow Trump's delegate advantage over the pooled allocation. Now imagine being one of the campaigns trying to figure this out.

Yes, it is just one poll. Yes, it is late May of the year prior to a presidential election year. Yes, there is a great deal of uncertainty still. But depending on the decisions the California Republican Party makes in the very early fall, it could make a big difference come Super Tuesday 2024. Rules matter.


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There are a lot of DeSantis analyses out there since the Florida governor officially joined the Republican presidential nomination race, but few are as thorough as Geoffrey Skelley's at FiveThirtyEight. It provides some nice perspective at the outset of DeSantis 2024. 


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Invisible Primary quick hits:
  • NBC News has a good summary of the current state of the endorsement primary. [As an aside, FHQ does not know why RNC member is included as an endorsement category in their analysis. Those three RNC members from each state and territory are ultimately going to be bound delegates next year. Those folks are going to stay (publicly) neutral in the vast, vast majority of cases. There will not be many (if any) endorsements there.]
  • After stops in Iowa and New Hampshire after his own launch, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott came home to the Palmetto state over the Memorial Day weekend for a town hall in the Low Country. Scott also has a fundraising trip out west in San Diego planned for mid-June (money primary).
  • New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu joined the chorus of prospective Republican candidates suggesting that a presidential announcement is coming "in the next week or two." Chris Christie has sounded similar calls in recent days.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy swung back through Iowa over the weekend. 
  • Never mind what a crowded field might do to the 2024 Republican race, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says it is good for the Hawkeye state and the Republican Party.
  • Not that it is a secret, but aides to North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum are (anonymously) confirming that the launch of presidential campaign is imminent. 


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On this date...
...in 1975, former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford entered the 1976 race for the Democratic presidential nomination. And New Hampshire Governor Mel Thomas signed HB 73 into law. This is the now famous (or infamous depending on one's perspective) law on the books in the Granite state that gives the secretary of state the discretion to set the date of the presidential primary, directing them to keep it seven or more days ahead of any similar election. 

...in 2012, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the Texas Republican primary and surpassed the number of delegates necessary to claim the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.



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Sunday, May 28, 2023

Sunday Series: Ranked Choice Voting in 2024 Presidential Primaries, Updated (May 2023)

One electoral reform that FHQ has touched on in the past and has increasingly popped up on the presidential primary radar is ranked choice voting (RCV). And let us be clear, while the idea has worked its way into state-level legislation and state party delegate selection plans, widespread adoption of the practice is not yet at hand. 

However, there has been some RCV experimentation on a modest scale in the delegate allocation process primarily in small states. And that has opened the door to its consideration in a broader swath of states across the country. States, whether state parties or state legislators, are seeing some value in allowing for a redistribution of votes based on a voter's preferences to insure, in the case of presidential primaries, that every voter has a more direct say in the resulting delegate allocation. 

That is apparent in legislation that has been proposed in state legislatures across the country as they have begun convening their 2023 sessions. Again, RCV is not sweeping the nation, as the map below of current legislation to institute the method in the presidential nomination process will attest. There are a lot of unshaded states. But if RCV was adopted across those states where it has been passed (Maine), where it has been used in Democratic state party-run processes (Alaska, Kansas and North Dakota), and where it is being considered by legislators in 2023 then it would affect the allocation of nearly a third of Democratic delegates and a little more than a quarter of Republican delegates. That is not nothing. 



The thrust of activity on adding RCV to presidential primaries for 2024 in legislatures across the country has shifted since FHQ last updated the situation in April. While much of the first few months of the 2023 state legislative sessions were about introducing legislation, the time since has mostly been about moving that legislation, and in recent days, doing so before legislatures adjourn. 

Unlike much of April, however, there were a few new bills proposed since the last update. A pair of companion bills in both chambers of the New Jersey legislature were introduced to establish RCV in presidential primaries and for the election of electors to the Electoral College. In Colorado, a measure to set up RCV for the 2028 cycle quickly came and went. SB 301 was proposed in late April and went nowhere before the legislature in the Centennial state adjourned for the year earlier this month. And just this last week, a trio of New York Republican members of the US House introduced legislation to prohibit the use of RCV in elections to federal offices. It is not clear whether that extends to the nomination phase as well. But not much is clear about the bill without text. Currently, the details are missing.

There was, however, continued progress for some of those RCV-related bills that have previously been floating around out there this session. 

From 30,000 feet, the overview remains much the same. The existing pattern of legislation has been for Republican-controlled states (where legislation has been proposed) to move bans on RCV while Democratic-controlled legislatures and Democratic legislators in red states have largely been behind efforts to augment the presidential primary process with RCV. That outlook has not changed. But it has evolved to some degree. To the extent any of the RCV-related legislation has been successful, it has been more likely to move through legislatures and be signed into law in Republican-controlled states. The Montana measure to prohibit RCV that was before Governor Gianforte (R) during the last update was signed into law, for instance. It brings the Treasure state in line with other neighbors -- Idaho and South Dakota -- in banning RCV during the 2023 session. 

All of that maintains the status quo as it has existed in those states. And in many ways, that -- maintaining the status quo -- is the path of least resistance with regard to RCV. 

And resistance is the key word when the focus shifts to those states with active bills to institute RCV for 2024 (or beyond) in the state-run presidential nomination processes. It is not that those bills have not budged, it is that most of those bills have not easily made their way through the legislative process. Yet, most is not all. A handful of RCV measures have found some modicum of success. 

In Hawaii, the differences across passed versions of the bill raised last month were squared and that measure was sent off to Governor Josh Green (D) for his consideration. But while that may bring RCV to the Aloha state, any new law will not affect state-run presidential primaries. That is because while the Hawaii legislature was able to push HB 1294 through before adjournment in early May, the bill to create a state-run presidential primary failed. However, Aloha state Democrats do intend to use RCV in their party-run primary again in 2024. Beyond that, the only other measures that moved since late April were ones in Minnesota and Oregon. HB 2004 in Oregon passed the lower chamber there and awaits action in the state Senate. And in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, an appropriation bill with a RCV rider passed the legislature and was signed into law. However, the money will be used not for implementing RCV but for the Secretary of State of Minnesota to include consideration of the process in a broader voting study.

And that is it. 

The last month may have seen incremental developments, but those changes have occurred as legislatures have been adjourning. And that may be the biggest change this month. More RCV-related bills have been rendered inactive or dormant as legislatures have tagged out for the year (or for regular sessions anyway with no guarantee that RCV will be revisited). That claimed both bills that had been proposed in Vermont, for example. The Senate version passed the upper chamber, but stalled in the House and never moved before the legislature in the Green Mountain state ended its session. 

The picture, then, of RCV and the 2024 presidential nomination process remains one of incremental movement at best in the first half of 2023. A handful of Republican-controlled states in the mountain West have bolstered the status quo with bans of RCV, and momentum on the pro- side has been next to negligible. There may be incremental advances where RCV is being experimented with in the presidential nomination process for 2024. But note also that most of the experimenting is being done by state parties in party-run processes on the Democratic side. And further, regardless of whether the legislation has sought to establish RCV or ban it, most of the movement has been in relatively small states. Idaho, Hawaii, Montana, South Dakota and Vermont are not the big hitters of national politics. Laboratories for or against RCV are in small states for now. And that may or may not be the best proving ground for it in the presidential nomination process (or anywhere else).

The bottom line, however, is that while RCV may be considered a remedy to some of the maladies that plague American politics, its adoption is not yet widespread. And that does not look to change much more than incrementally in 2023. 





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Saturday, May 27, 2023

[From FHQ Plus] The Trump Trial and the Primary Calendar

The following is cross-posted from FHQ Plus, FHQ's subscription newsletter. Come check the rest out and consider a paid subscription to unlock the full site and support our work. 

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The former president's hush money payment trial in Manhattan is set to start in the sweet spot of the 2024 presidential primary calendar.

Former President Donald Trump beamed into a New York courtroom via video on Tuesday, May 23 for a hearing in which, among other things, the start date of the trial stemming from the 2016 hush money payments investigation was revealed. And the March 25, 2024 date falls right into the heart of the 2024 presidential primary calendar. It is not just that the trial will begin as March winds down following the opening of the (more) winner-take-all phase of the Republican presidential nomination process. 

Yes, the calendar of contests is still evolving, but the tentative start of the trial is a big deal for at least a couple of reasons based on where it looks as if the calendar will end up settling for 2024.

Sure, March 25 will be well after Iowa and New Hampshire have officially kicked off the voting phase of the Republican presidential nomination race. It will follow Super Tuesday. And it will hit right after the time on the calendar — March 15 — when states are allowed to allocate delegates to candidates in a winner-take-all fashion. But more importantly, March 25 falls in what is likely to be the decisive zone on the presidential primary calendar next year. 

In the last three competitive Republican presidential nomination cycles, the candidate who has held the delegate lead when 50 percent of the total number of delegates have been allocated has gone on to clinch the nomination around the point on the calendar when 75 percent of the delegates have been allocated. And in 2024, the 50 percent mark will likely fall somewhere between Super Tuesday on March 5 and the first round of winner-take-all-eligible primaries on March 19. Just two weeks later, on April 2, the 75 percent mark will likely be crossed with an anticipated subregional primary in the northeast and mid-Atlantic (with Wisconsin along for the ride).

March 25 is right in that window. 

But look at the 50-75 rule in the context of the last few competitive Republican cycles. 

  • In 2008, John McCain came out of Super Tuesday on February 5 with a sizable delegate lead that he did not relinquish down the stretch. Super Tuesday was the point on the calendar when the 50 percent mark was passed and McCain had wrapped up the nomination by early March when the 75 percent point came and went. 

  • Four years later, the calendar was different. Yes, Florida again pushed the earliest contests into January, but California was no longer in early February. The primary in Texas was no longer in early March. Instead, both delegate-rich states were toward the end of the calendar and that influenced where the 50-75 rule was activated in 2012. 50 percent of the Republican delegates had not been allocated that cycle until after 75 percent of them had been allocated in 2008. The 75 percent mark did not come in 2012 until the Texas primary at the end of May. That is a significant difference, but Mitt Romney was the delegate leader in late March and secured the requisite number of delegates to clinch the nomination in the Lone Star state in late May. 

  • In 2016, the calendar changed again, but the 50-75 rule remained fairly predictive. Donald Trump was the delegate leader when the 50 percent mark was crossed on March 15 and had a nearly insurmountable advantage after wins in the northeast and mid-Atlantic in late April, when the process pushed past the 75 percent point on the calendar. No, Trump did not clinch that day, but his last challengers withdrew a week later. 

The 2024 calendar is not shaping up to be like any of those examples exactly. 50 percent of the delegates will have been allocated around the same point on the calendar in 2024 as 2016, but the 75 percent mark will come in much quicker succession thereafter. Again, it comes just two weeks later. That is a rapid delegate distribution. It is not 2008 fast, but it is fast. And March 25 is right there, late enough in process, but right in that calendar sweet spot where nomination decisions tend to be made in the Republican process.

The Emerging April Gap

Fast forward to March 25, 2024. The 50 percent mark has been surpassed in terms of delegates allocated and a candidate has a clear advantage in the delegate count. That candidate is almost always the frontrunner heading into primary season. Not always, but often enough. At this point in time, seven months out from Iowa starting the voting phase, that frontrunner is Donald Trump. He may not be in seven or nine months time. 

Regardless, this big external event is plopped down right in the middle of primary season. And it will not be over and done with on March 25. That trial will last a little bit and draw a lot of attention in the process. It will additionally likely overlap with the April 2 round of primaries. 

Now, the calendar is not set yet. But April 2 is poised to grow its footprint on the 2024 process in the coming days and weeks. Officially, Wisconsin is the only contest on that date as of now. However, bills have been proposed to move the Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island primaries to that date. There are signals that legislation is forthcoming from New York to move the presidential primary in the Empire state to April 2 as well. And talk is ramping up that Pennsylvania’s primary may land there also. 

Yet, in moving, those states are pulling up tent posts in late April and shifting them to the beginning of the month. That is going to hollow out the rest of April on the Republican calendar after April 2. There will potentially be no contests scheduled for the rest of the month.

There will potentially be no primaries or caucuses again until the Indiana primary on May 7. 

That is a five week gap with no contests. That is a five week gap that will exert a tremendous amount of pressure on the candidates trailing in the delegate count to close up shop and call it a day. That is a five week gap into which a trial that starts on March 25 will potentially creep and suck up even more attention (potentially away from those trailing candidates who need it most). 

However, that trial, while possibly drawing attention away from the campaign trail, will also create uncertainty; uncertainty as to the viability of the potential frontrunner and delegate leader. And despite feeling pressure to drop out, that may have the effect of, as Julia Azari and Seth Masket recently pointed out, keeping candidates who may otherwise have dropped out in past cycles in this race longer. 

But the point here is that this emerging April gap in the calendar is at the very point in the process when this trial is set to be going on. And there will be no contests or results to divert attention after April 2. Trump could have the nomination close to wrapped up by that point, but other trailing candidates could still be hanging around even as there are no primaries and caucuses for weeks. 

Look, this is already a weird dynamic. But throwing a trial into this rapid succession of delegate allocation followed by a gap in the action right as someone potentially gets close to clinching would create a strange matrix of incentives for all players involved. And that has implications for how the Republican nomination process winds down and transitions into the convention phase typically set aside to bring the party together for a general election run. 




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Friday, May 26, 2023

DeSantis is not without Organizational Strengths in the Republican Nomination Race, part two

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Early last week FHQ discussed the organizational strengths the still-nascent DeSantis campaign had through the lens of endorsements. And that is not the only area where the now-announced candidate DeSantis is excelling relative to those who are vying to be the main alternative to former President Trump.  The Florida governor shrugged off the technically glitchy launch and reeled in $8.2 million in the first 24 hours after his formal announcement. This adds to the total DeSantis coffers (across the formal campaign and affiliated groups) that are already busting at the seams. 

This is an effort behind DeSantis that is well-funded in the money primary, staffed with folks who know how to organize for a delegate battle and that is building institutional support within the broader party network. It is a campaign that is built to run through Super Tuesday (at the very least). Now, building to get to that point and actually doing it are two separate matters. But the pieces are in place for DeSantis to stick around for a while.

And not that DeSantis was not already doing the sorts of things that presidential candidates do, but he has an upcoming swing next week through the states with the first three contests on the 2024 Republican presidential primary calendar.


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Invisible Primary quick hits:

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It is hard not to get the sense that the fixation on Glenn Youngkin 2024 is stuck in this weird feedback loop. 
  • Donors looking for a viable Trump alternative keep approaching Youngkin about running. 
  • Youngkin reaches out to other donors about securing the requisite funding for such a run. 
  • Media reports on the entreaties from both sides.
  • Repeat.
Forget mixed signals. All of this continues despite the fact that Youngkin would not officially jump into the race until after the November state legislative races in Virginia. You know, less than two months before voting likely starts in Iowa. Never mind that Youngkin 2024 would have to launch before November on ballot access grounds alone. Plus there appears to be a certain collective amnesia about the whole thing. It may or may not be on the tail end, but there is still an entertaining of the idea that Ron DeSantis may have waited too long to get into the 2024 race. If late May is too long, then November would be way too long. That may have been lost in the feedback loop. 

This talk is likely to continue as the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump and the impact of his legal troubles has on the race ebbs and flows and whether or if DeSantis rebounds any. 


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On this date...
...in 1980, George H.W. Bush withdraws as former California Governor Ronal Reagan crosses the delegate threshold to clinch the 1980 Republican presidential nomination. [Fun fact (and marker of just how much the world has changed): Bush informed Reagan of his decision to leave the race via telegram.]

...in 1992, President George H.W Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton both swept primaries in Arkansas, Idaho and Kentucky. The Democratic primary in the Gem state was a beauty contest. Idaho Democrats gathered in March 3 caucuses, giving Iowa Senator Tom Harkin a narrow victory.

...in 2016, Donald Trump surpassed the 1237 delegates necessary to claim the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.



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Thursday, May 25, 2023

An Exercise in Early State Delegate Allocation

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
FHQ is aware that most folks are focused on other things this morning, and we will comment on yesterday's events below. But let's start elsewhere with a fun diversion. Because who does not want to talk about delegate allocation seven months before any votes are cast, right?

Well, probably most normal people. However, as an exercise in just how delegate allocation may go in a pair of early Republican primary (or caucus) states, let's look at a couple of recent polls out of Iowa and South Carolina. 

Iowa
Just this morning, Emerson released a poll on the state of the race in (presumably) first-in-the-nation Iowa, and the survey depicts a race that is not especially close. Former President Trump enjoys a 42 point advantage over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the pair are the only two candidates to garner more than five percent support. Still, even though the full Iowa delegation will vote for one candidate at the national convention (if just one name is placed in nomination as usual), the Republican Party of Iowa uses a proportional allocation system with no official qualifying threshold. That just means that, depending on how the vote is distributed, a candidate can get below two percent support and still round up to a single delegate in the allocation.

So how would things look if, on caucus night, the Emerson survey was reflective of the results in Iowa?


Not surprisingly, Trump and DeSantis dominate the allocation. One should expect that in a straight up proportional allocation system with no qualifying threshold. However, the fun, if one can call it that, is in the rounding for those candidates at the bottom of the order. Like Bill Weld in 2020, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Sununu all eke out a hypothetical delegate from the Hawkeye state. Note that Sununu in particular reels in just 1.6 percent of the vote and manages to round up to a delegate. 

Yet, if the 1.6% in the poll who named someone else other than the candidates listed -- those above plus Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum -- opted for, say, DeSantis instead, then the Florida governor would round up to a ninth delegate, depriving Sununu of his lone delegate. The math for both would leave DeSantis a larger remainder and he would round up.

Now, is that solitary delegate going to matter in the grand scheme of things? In this particular scenario, no. But if the votes are distributed differently -- in a less lopsided manner -- then it could matter. But that would likely mean that Trump's support has ebbed and/or some other candidate's fortunes have turned around. And that would probably be the bigger story to tell. 

[NOTE: This all assumes that 1) Iowa Republicans carry over allocation rules that the party most recently renewed in the 2022 adoption of amended party rules and 2) that the RNC apportions 40 delegates to Iowa for 2024 as it did in 2020.]


South Carolina 
There was also a recent survey from National Public Affairs of the Republican nomination race in the Palmetto state. Trump led by 15 over DeSantis -- 38-23 -- but the main takeaway from FHQ's perspective was that Trump's support shrank since the firm's last poll of South Carolina in April. Normally a five point drop while still retaining a 15 point advantage would not elicit much of a response. Trump would hypothetically win the primary and leave the most delegate-rich state in the early window of the calendar with a significant net delegate advantage from a winner-take-all by congressional district state. 

But in dropping below 40 percent support, Trump would be flirting with potentially losing out on taking all of the delegates out of South Carolina. Again, it would depend on how the votes are distributed across the state and districts, but it is rough rule of thumb that a candidate who clears 40 percent in the South Carolina Republican primary has a better than average shot at turning it into a winner-take-all (overall) state under the party's allocation rules. 

Perhaps that is splitting hairs, but as with the Iowa example above, it does help to identify where the cutlines are in the delegate allocation process. Anyway, as FHQ said, this is supposed to be a fun diversion.


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Look, FHQ made a case for DeSantis being up against it in the race for the Republican nomination based on where Trump is positioned in the race at the moment. But folks, things can change. And as Jonathan Bernstein astutely pointed out at Bloomberg yesterday, they often have in presidential nomination battles. [It is a good piece. Go read it!] As he notes, DeSantis may have suffered some setbacks but he is in a position not unlike that of John McCain or Barack Obama in 2008. Both came back to win their respective nominations after invisible primary swoons the year prior. However, DeSantis could also ultimately find himself in the company of Kamala Harris or Scott Walker, who both, despite conventional qualifications and some promise, fell flat and never really amounted to much in their respective races. 

Yes, as I mentioned on Monday in response to something similar from Harry Enten, much of this depends on Trump. The former president is in a commanding position right now. That is commanding and not precarious. Commanding, not tenuous. But there is uncertainty because of the baggage Trump carries, including the various legal entanglements in which the former president finds himself mired. The uncertainty is great enough that anything from a Trump collapse to a DeSantis comeback to a surge from another candidate (or some combination of all three) are all seemingly possible. But the remainder of the invisible primary will say much about the viability of those last two options. 


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Finally, Ron DeSantis officially filed his paperwork to run for president with the Federal Elections Commission on Wednesday, May 24. And things went downhill from there. There has already been a lot of ink spilled on the botched rollout of DeSantis for President on Twitter and the impact it will have. 

Meh. 

Here is where it matters. DeSantis is coming off a stretch where little seemed to be going right. Trump's position improved and some were asking whether DeSantis had waited too long to jump into the race or whether he should even officially run at all. All last night was was a missed opportunity. It was a missed opportunity to break from the downward spiral narrative. DeSantis will have future chances to right the ship but there may be fewer of them and/or less margin for error when they do come along. That is where yesterday matters. One rarely gets a second chance to make a first impression. However, in DeSantis's favor is the fact that most folks still are not engaged on 2024 yet. But an impression may be in the process of setting in. 


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On this date...
...in 1976, on what was the busiest day of the calendar that cycle, five candidates claimed victory in primaries across six states and two competitive nominations races. On the Republican side, President Gerald Ford won contests in Kentucky, Oregon and Tennessee while former California Governor Ronald Reagan notched wins in Arkansas, Idaho and Nevada. In the Democratic race, former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter swept the three southern primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee while Frank Church (Idaho and Oregon) and Jerry Brown (Nevada) split the three contests out west.

...in 2000, Texas Governor George W. Bush took all of the delegates from a win at the Kansas Republican state convention.

...in 2004, President George W. Bush received just under 90 percent of the vote in winning the Idaho presidential primary.



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Wednesday, May 24, 2023

DeSantis starts as the clearest Trump alternative, but is a repeat of 2016 inevitable?

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • Look, this Trump trial is going to be a big deal in the middle of primary season next year. But where it lands on the calendar and how the calendar is very likely to settle make the combination potentially quite disruptive. All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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The one common theme in many of the send ups of Ron DeSantis on launch day for his presidential campaign is that the Florida governor is well enough positioned to challenge former President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, but neither have been strong enough to ward off the entry of other candidates with the conventional qualities of formidable, if not successful, past presidential aspirants. The thought goes -- and there is evidence to back it up -- that those other candidates in or on the verge of being in the race are focused more in recent days on challenging for the mantle of the Trump alternative than they are on actually directly taking on the former president. 

None of this is news. DeSantis has been taking incoming fire in recent weeks from not only the Trump campaign but the other candidates seeking to break out of the single digits in public opinion polling of the race. Understandably, that also conjures up memories of the 2016 Republican presidential nomination contest. But even with the presence of that echo of 2016, DeSantis enters a race for the 2024 nomination with far different dynamics. 

And those differing dynamics center on the former president and not Governor DeSantis. First of all, as the political world was reminded again yesterday, Trump faces criminal charges that he is set to go on trial for at a crucial point on the 2024 presidential primary calendar. That will add an element of uncertainty to the progression of primary season unprecedented in the post-reform era (much less any era of American history). But, by virtue of being a former president (among other things), Trump is also in a far better position in 2023 than he was in 2015. Notably, throughout the competitive portion of the 2016 process, Trump only approached (but did not attain) majority support in the national polls after big victories in the cluster of primaries in the mid-Atlantic and northeast in late April, right before the last of the remaining competition withdrew from the race. 

Look, FHQ does not want to harp on national polls too much, especially seven months before any votes are set to be cast. But Trump has basically been in the same position in the national polls that he was in at the height of his 2016 support all along during the 2024 invisible primary. And in the last month, the former president has crested above majority support. Yes, all of the usual caveats apply. It is May before a presidential election year. Things may change. Additionally, state polls may offer a better idea of where the candidates stand relative to one another in a sequential (not national) contest.

Still, Trump has been and is in a position to claim a lot of delegates under the rules that will govern the 2024 process. And delegates are the currency of a nomination race. His position in 2023 is consistent with or above his best in 2016. Yes, there will be winner-take-all contests that will allow a plurality winner to be awarded all of the delegates in some (but not all) primaries and caucuses after March 15 just like in 2016. But that distinction matters little if Trump is winning a majority of support in those contests. Even if Trump trails off from his current pace and drops below majority support, it may not change the fact that DeSantis is the only candidate to this point who is even flirting with the delegate qualifying threshold in most states (20 percent) with contests before March 15. And in recent days DeSantis has dipped below that mark. 

The point is that the candidate dynamics of 2023 may resemble those of 2015-16 on the Republican side, but they may meet a different set of preferences among the electorate (at least according to polls at this point) and will intersect with a more frontrunner-favorable set of delegate allocation rules in 2024. Neither of those are a repeat of 2016. The end result may be. Trump may end up the 2024 Republican nominee, but there may be similarities and differences in how the process gets to that point relative to 2016.


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In the endorsement primary, DeSantis nabbed another congressional backer, Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA, 6th). Team DeSantis also lined up the support of over 100 former Trump administration officials. The executive branch is huge, but this is no small show of support, especially when the president they all worked for is running for the same position again.


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A handful of quick hits:


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On this date...
...in 1984, two days after winning a beauty contest primary in the Gem state, Colorado Senator Gary Hart won the Idaho Democratic caucuses, where delegates were allocated.

...in 1988, Vice President George H.W. Bush claimed victory in the Idaho primary.




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Posted by Josh Putnam at 10:00 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Youngkin 2024 is a Byproduct of Uncertainty

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • Given the 2024 primary calendar uncertainty, there has been chatter about Delaware being added to the early window when Georgia and New Hampshire are unable or unwilling to comply with the DNC rules. Is Delaware on the move? All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
FHQ quipped last week that Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's on-again/off-again consideration of presidential bid was just the sort of decisiveness that Republican primary voters seem to be after in the 2024 cycle. And no, that probably still is not fair. It is best to observe this back and forth as a measure of the uncertainty in the overall race. There are doubts about Trump, electability concerns due to the baggage, however one defines it, that the former president carries. And there have been growing doubts in recent weeks about the type of candidate Ron DeSantis will be and the kind of campaign he will run. 

That uncertainty opens doors for other possibilities, or perhaps, feeds a desire among a certain class for alternatives. And that is true of what is happening on the Youngkin front. The governor has not exactly gotten glowing reviews from everyone. He has been described as not "all in" by some donors. Yet, it is those donors, in a collective sense, that seem to be driving the latest round of "will Youngkin run?" speculation. They seem to be the ones not only pining most for a Trump alternative, but goading Youngkin into reconsidering launching a bid. It would be easy to consider Youngkin a kind of Rick Perry 2012 sort of figure in all of this, but it is likely better viewed in the broader sense of discovery, scrutiny, decline that dominated the 2012 Republican process as described by Sides and Vavreck. Like 2012, 2024 has an uneasy frontrunner with (currently) somewhere in the range of plurality to majority support during the invisible primary. But said frontrunner is happily willing to assist in the act of scrutiny if threatened. 


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Julia Azari and Seth Masket are really good in this piece over at MSNBC discussing the informal rules of the presidential nomination process. Is the system undergoing a breakdown, a rewriting, an evolution or some combination of all three? This section on the impacts of the changes on winnowing in the 2024 Republican nomination race is particularly worthy of flagging:
"Another source of mystery has to do with timing. Some of the most important unwritten rules of the nominating process come into play after the voting has begun. It’s assumed that the losers will drop out and endorse the winners after a few lackluster primaries, or when it becomes mathematically impossible to win the nomination. But given Trump’s legal troubles and the uncertainty they create — what if Trump has won enough delegates in the primaries to clinch the nomination by next April but is then convicted of a felony before the convention? — we might be more likely to see otherwise unpromising candidates ride it out to the convention. This might be significant for DeSantis, especially if he believes he could emerge victorious in a floor fight."
Highly recommend this one. FHQ certainly does more than its fair share of talking about formal rules, but the informal ones matter too!


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It is probably premature to suggest that it is Iowa-or-bust for challengers to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. There are, after all, seven plus months of the invisible primary yet to play out. However, if things stay on this same course, then the caucuses in the Hawkeye state may present a clear (final?) opportunity to "ding" Trump. These are not separate things, of course. What happens in Iowa will, to some degree, be a function of what has happened thus far in the invisible primary and the continued campaign organization building that will take place between now and January. 


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On this date...
...in 1972, Senator George McGovern swept the Oregon and Rhode Island primaries on his path to the 1972 Democratic nomination.

...in 2000, Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore won their parties' respective primaries in Arkansas. Additionally, Bush took the Idaho primary and Gore prevailed in the Kentucky primary.

...in 2020, Hawaii Democratic released results showing former Vice President Joe Biden won the party-run primary in the Aloha state.



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 10:00 AM 0 comments
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Monday, May 22, 2023

Tim Scott Enters the Race

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • There is something of a time crunch for the two parties in Iowa to schedule the 2024 caucuses, but much of it seems self-imposed. There is a time they want to have that completed by and a point they have to have that set. Plus an additional note on Trump and 2024 delegate allocation rules. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
After filing with the Federal Election Commission on Friday, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is set to officially announce his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on Monday, May 22. The move comes a little more than a month since the junior senator from the Palmetto state launched an exploratory committee. 

Scott is the first to strike in a week that seemingly promises at least one more similar announcement, but Scott's entry also comes at an interesting time. Donald Trump still enjoys a comfortable lead in the endorsement primary among Senate Republicans. However, the upper chamber in the US Congress is increasingly looking as if it may be a flashpoint of sorts in this Republican nomination race. And that may or may not be because of Tim Scott. Scott will enter the race with two Senate endorsements, both from South Dakota colleagues. Mike Rounds, FHQ has talked about, but Scott also scored the important endorsement of Senate Minority Whip John Thune over the weekend. And there is said to be a reservoir of support for Scott among those he works with most closely. 

Moreover, Republican senators not aligned with Trump have been increasingly outspoken in recent weeks. First, Indiana Senator Todd Young unendorsed Trump. Then another member of the Senate Republican leadership, Senator John Cornyn last week noted that Trump cannot win a general election. And Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy followed suit over the weekend. Neither Cornyn nor Cassidy went quite as far as Young did in their comments, but they come at a time that gives Scott some cover as he announces his bid. No, none of it is explicitly pro-Scott, but it is anti-Trump enough, via an electability argument. 

And together it all offers an interesting set of signals from among a group of the most high-profile possible gets in the endorsement primary.


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South Carolina Republicans convened over the weekend and narrowly re-elected Chair Drew McKissick. With both Tim Scott and Nikki Haley on hand and Donald Trump addressing the delegates in a video, McKissick turned back a challenge from Jeff Davis, head of a Trump-loyalist group in the Upstate of South Carolina. This was not a convention where 2024 delegate rules were on the table -- the winner-take-all by congressional district system is not one South Carolina Republicans are going to mess with -- but it was a demonstration of another state Republican Party battling on pragmatism versus purism grounds, something that has flared up in other states as 2024 approaches. That may not have implications for delegate allocation rules in South Carolina, but it bears watching elsewhere as the rules increasingly get nailed down. 


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Harry Enten has another good one up about the comeback path DeSantis may take to the Republican nomination. He draws a parallel between where DeSantis is in the polls now to where both Barack Obama and John McCain were in 2007. Both obviously went on to win their respective nominations in 2008, but both needed early wins to help propel them in that direction. Of course, DeSantis' main competition, Donald Trump, is probably closer to where Hillary Clinton was in 2015 than to where she was when she was the poll leader -- ahead of Obama -- in 2007. And that matters as well. 


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In a further fleshing out of an ongoing story, Tom Beaumont describes the tough work ahead for DeSantis-aligned super PAC, Never Back Down, in attempting to flex organizational muscle. Again, that effort is a kind of Frankenstein's monster, combining the grassroots strength and knowhow of the 2016 Cruz campaign with the similar try at organizing through a super PAC that the Jeb Bush campaign pushed in the same cycle. 



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On this date...
...in 2012,  former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney swept primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky.

...in 2020, the voting in the all-mail Hawaii Democratic party-run primary concluded.



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 AM 0 comments
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