The debate that I moderated last night between the UGA College Republicans and Young Democrats was an interesting affair. We had the hall for 90 minutes and broke things down in to segments of about 8 minutes each (Well, they were supposed to have been 8 minutes each.). Both sides got two minutes to answer the question posed and that was followed up by about 2-4 minutes of cross talk. As I said yesterday, the intent was to split the event into equal parts foreign policy and domestic affairs. The guy who was moderating, though, was a bit liberal with the time allowed and let it get away from them more often than not. As a result most of the evening was spent discussing issues in the domestic sphere (...much to the chagrin of one of the College Republican panelists who also happened to be an international affairs major. All the moderator could say was, "What do you expect from an Americanist?").
I'll reproduce the question list below, but will tell you that we were able to cover immigration, candidate experience, redistribution of wealth, energy, education, the economy, Iran and checks and balances. I had planned to close by asking who each side thought would win nationally and in Georgia and why/how, but opted to close with the checks and balances question instead. The moderator in me overruled the political strategist on that final question as time waned. Plus, I was likely to have gotten partisan rather than thoughtful responses -- not that the two can't overlap -- which would have lacked any real entertainment value.
It was funny. As the crowd was filing in, I was sitting in the back of the hall going over my notes and got to hear some good lines. Two girls (I hate saying that, but saying college-aged women sounds kind of silly, though, perhaps more accurate.) were talking about how it was like a wedding, having to choose which side to sit on. I had already been thinking about this and, to me, there were more people opting for the left than the right. That seemed to be where the crowd was throughout the evening. Democratic one liners got a better response and edgy Republican comments were vocally derided. [I seriously considered jokingly leading off by revealing, in true moderator fashion, that the audience had been warned about vocal reactions, but thought better of it. There are only so many jokes you can fit in and I already had a Joe the Plumber reference.]
As to the debate itself, I'm sure everyone is interested in my opinion of who won. When my sister asked me this morning, I said me (...because I had not succumbed to stage fright beforehand. How like a politician: setting the bar low before an event.). In all seriousness, though, I think it is probably beyond my pay grade -- to borrow a phrase -- to call out students and critique them on their performances (I do enough of that already.). I thought both sides did well, but like any of the four debates we just witnessed, there was a fair amount of question dodging and reliance on stump speech material. But hey, if the people at the top do it, I can't begrudge any of the panelists for doing the same. [Heck, it wasn't like I was Jim Lehrer up there.] More than anything the night was about information and I'd like to think that the discussion that took place on stage helped to get some additional information out there to students at UGA.
But the evening was enjoyable and I appreciated the University Union contacting me and allowing me to participate.
Below are the questions I used (or would have used had we had more time or a more disciplined moderator). I was able to sneak Rob's socialism/liberalism and conservatism/libertarianism question into the discussion of redistribution. That one got set up better than I had hoped when one of the Republican panelists brought up not only socialism but went beyond that to invoke communism, even quoting Karl Marx. That led to a good exchange.
The only reason that I didn't get to use Daniel's was because it came in after I had already completed the set of questions for the night. That one is on me. I probably should have put a deadline in with the original call for questions.
--------------------------------------------
Debate Questions
I Immigration
One issue that has been lost in the campaign this year is the issue of immigration. That is due in large part to the relative proximity of the two candidates on how to deal with it and McCain's divergence from some within the Republican Party. On the one side is the wall along the United States' southern border with Mexico and on the other is talk of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants. Where do John McCain and Barack Obama fit in on that spectrum and how will each deal with the issue over the course of the next four years?
II Experience
From some of the student questions I received, I saw that experience is still an issue that is on people's minds. Early on, this looked like a race that would potentially be shaped based on the age vs. experience question. Was McCain too old and did Obama lack the experience necessary to deal with the serious problems facing the nation. The Sarah Palin selection added a twist to this discussion, but is this still an issue and how will it affect each after January 20th?
III Redistribution/Socialism
This one comes to us from our good friend Joe the Plumber. Obviously, the McCain campaign has tried to make an issue – whether successful or not – of Obama's response about the idea of redistribution of wealth. At the heart of this is the divide between the two parties on how much and in what ways the federal government should intervene on economic issues. But what does this mean, a redistribution of wealth? What wealth and where will it be redistributed?
Follow-up:
Since we're talking government intervention, I'd like to take a step back and talk a little about basic questions of ideology. I often run my 1101 students through the paces on ideology, but I think it would be instructive to give that discussion a potential real world application. To my friends on the right, what is the difference between a conservative and a libertarian? And to the folks on the left, what is the difference between a liberal and a socialist?
IV Energy
Whether its drill baby drill or adding new green collar jobs to our economy, alternative forms of energy are high on the lists of priorities of both John McCain and Barack Obama. What is the most cost-effective combination of these various ideas to deal with the United States' current energy problems.
V Education
I wanted to talk about something related to education. We are at an institution of higher learning after all. And I'd like to confine our discussion to that area. At least some of the folks in this room are facing student loan repayments when they are done at UGA and among the others there are HOPE scholarship recipients whose scholarships – and this may be something faced by future students more than those here in the hall tonight – may be threatened because of the rising cost of higher education. What are each of the major candidate's doing to address the issue of college affordability?
VI Economy
This question was posed to the candidates in all four debates this year and I don't know that the American people got a solid answer to it at any point during any of those affairs. However, I think that we may be able to come up with some ideas tonight. There's always a lot of promises in political campaigns, but in light of the current economic situation, what are some of the things that are most likely going to be on the cutting room floor once one of these two gentlemen assumes the office of the presidency?
VII Iran
Iran. Diplomacy or military intervention? There's been a lot of talk about conditions and pre-conditions for sitting down with certain world leaders, but obviously, the Islamic Republic's development of nuclear technology is a huge consideration in dealing with Iran. But what is the point of no return? At what point in that nation's nuclear development does it become necessary for military intervention to be seriously considered?
VIII Israel
I'm glad Israel came up in that last exchange/I'm surprised Israel didn't come up in that exchange because that is where I'd like to turn now. The Iran question is very much intertwined with the Israel question simply because of their ties to the Palestinians opposite the Israelis on the dispute over the territory in the Holy Land. What should the US role be in the Israeli/Palestinian dispute and how should that approach be tempered by the question of Iran's interest in the issue as well?
IX Trade
Charges of protectionism and unfair trade have been bandied about throughout this campaign – even stretching back to the primary contests in the winter and spring. What can be done to alter the trade regimes currently in place so that they successfully tread the line between the two extremes represented by the charges levied in this contest – protectionism and unfair trade?
X Humanitarian Intervention
The US military is stretched pretty much to its limit currently. Given that reality and its intersection with the economic downturn has the United States' ability to deal with current humanitarian crises and those that may arise in the future been compromised? Like a lot of things, this is a question of degrees. Under what circumstances is it necessary for the US to intervene to create some solution to humanitarian issues?
XI Checks and Balances
I wanted to end on a bit of a broad note. No matter who wins next week, the next president will have to deal with what is projected to be an overwhelming Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. 250 seats in the House and possibly a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate. If McCain wins how will he be able to govern effectively without a wholesale shift toward the left? And if Obama wins, what will he have to do to keep the various factions of the Democratic majority on the same page when dealing with the issues that face the nation?
XII Closing Question
Who is going to win both nationally and here in Georgia and why?
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)
NOTE: Folks, I apologize for the delay getting today's map up. Last night's debate (further details forthcoming) on campus here at UGA threw me off my typical routine. I'll make it up to you with some interesting stuff throughout the afternoon. Anyway...
Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.
The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.
Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.
North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.
That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.
But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona andMississippi South Dakota is one to make note of, though. Should the results of the election move into the landslide arena, that is likely the point to which Obama can stretch his coalition of states. The closer you get to that partisan line, however, the more likely it is that the Arizona senator could peel off any of those McCain states.
On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.
Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.
| New Polls (Oct. 27) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Rasmussen | +8 | |
| Arizona | N. Arizona Univ. | +5 | |
| California | Rasmussen | +27 | |
| Colorado | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Florida | Suffolk | +5 | |
| Florida | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Florida | Zogby | +0.3 | |
| Florida | Datamar | +5 | |
| Indiana | Zogby | +6.2 | |
| Iowa | Marist | +10 | |
| Missouri | Rasmussen/FOX | +1 | |
| Missouri | Zogby | +2.5 | |
| Missouri | Survey USA | 0 | |
| Nevada | Zogby | +4.2 | |
| New Hampshire | Marist | +5 | |
| New Hampshire | UNH | +16 | |
| New York | Siena | +31 | |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen/FOX | +1 | |
| North Carolina | Zogby | +3.3 | |
| North Carolina | Public Policy Polling | +1 | |
| Ohio | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Ohio | Zogby | +4.6 | |
| Oklahoma | TvPoll | +26.8 | |
| Oregon | Survey USA | +19 | |
| Pennsylvania | Temple University | +9 | |
| Vermont | Research 2000 | +21 | |
| Virginia | Washington Post | +8 | |
| Virginia | Zogby | +7.2 | |
| Virginia | Survey USA | +9 | |
| Virginia | VCU | +11 | |
| Virginia | Rasmussen/FOX | +4 | |
| Washington | University of Washington | +21 | |
| West Virginia | Zogby | +9.9 | |
The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.
[Click Map to Enlarge]I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.
Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.
North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| NY-31 (41) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| IL-21 (62) | NJ-15 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | AZ-10 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| RI-4 (66) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (76) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MA-12 (88) | PA-21 (228) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| CA-55 (143) | WI-10 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | AK-3 (84) | ID-4 (16) |
| DE-3 (146) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (375/174) | AR-6 (81) | OK-7 (12) |
| CT-7 (153) | MI-17 (260) | MT-3 (163) | SC-8 (75) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.
But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona and
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.
Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Monday, October 27, 2008
Debate Tonight
No, not that kind of debate. Obama's Wednesday night primetime affair is the only [scheduled] high-profile campaign event this week.
However, tonight FHQ is moderating a debate between the College Republicans and Young Democrats on campus here at UGA. [It isn't on the level of the Colbert Report, et al. but it is monumental enough that I taken to using the third person when describing my participation in it.] Anyway, I don't want to totally outsource the resposibility*, but I'd like to open it up here and see what kind of questions our readers and frequent contributors would like to see asked in such a context. If you're like me you submitted at least one hundred questions on MySpace in the hopes that one would be chosen for the town hall debate in Nashville earlier this month. But also like me, you were likely disappointed when one wasn't chosen. Well, now you have the opportunity to submit questions to a panel of partisans from each side of the aisle who aren't even "officially" representing either campaign. [Oh, I'm supposed to be convincing you to actually post questions.]
Here are the rules for submission:
*I should note that there are student-submitted questions as well.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
However, tonight FHQ is moderating a debate between the College Republicans and Young Democrats on campus here at UGA. [It isn't on the level of the Colbert Report, et al. but it is monumental enough that I taken to using the third person when describing my participation in it.] Anyway, I don't want to totally outsource the resposibility*, but I'd like to open it up here and see what kind of questions our readers and frequent contributors would like to see asked in such a context. If you're like me you submitted at least one hundred questions on MySpace in the hopes that one would be chosen for the town hall debate in Nashville earlier this month. But also like me, you were likely disappointed when one wasn't chosen. Well, now you have the opportunity to submit questions to a panel of partisans from each side of the aisle who aren't even "officially" representing either campaign. [Oh, I'm supposed to be convincing you to actually post questions.]
Here are the rules for submission:
1) There are two broad topic areas, foreign and domestic.Other than that, everything else is fair game. But I will add one additional rule since our contributors tend to lean toward the left (though our readers may come from a broader range on the ideological spectrum):
2) We are steering clear of social issues in an effort to tamp down the number of fist fights outside the hall this evening.
3) No gotcha questions.Though there won't be a live blog of the festivities, I'll have a wrap up post up in the morning (so you can see if your question was chosen.).
*I should note that there are student-submitted questions as well.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
Sunday, October 26, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)
A candidate's home state is supposed to be safe, right? Arkansas turned red once Bill Clinton was out of the picture. Texas has always had someone on one of the tickets -- save 1996 -- but usually on the Republican ticket. The Bushes account for most of those and they swung Texas -- not that it really needed any swinging. Oh, and Tennessee was a vital part of Al Gore's coalition of states that he won in 2000. No, wait, I just got a call from the Gore folks. They actually lost Tennessee, but wanted me to remind everyone reading that they did win the popular vote nationally in that election.
Well, what does this have to do with anything anyway? Alaska, Arizona, Delaware and Illinois are all safe states; the former two for the Republicans and the latter two for the Democrats. Yeah, Alaska looked close for a while before the Palin selection and Arizona turned in a single digit margin or two along the way. Likewise, Illinois and Delaware went without polling for the longest time and were never really at risk for the Democrats in a favorable political climate.
But that changed today. Two new polls out of Arizona showed the race in the Grand Canyon state still favoring McCain, but within the margin of error. And the indications out of Arizona State University's polling outfit, from which a new poll is due out tomorrow, are that last month's eight point margin will have shrunk in this month's survey. So much for home states being safe. Arizona is still very much within the strong McCain category, but it has suddenly shot up the rankings to a spot right behind Georgia. In other words, it is just one state and about three and a quarter points from being a lean state for the Arizona senator. Even though, the state more than likely safe, this is certainly a trend chock full of symbolism. And not the good kind of symbolism either. This is more ominous for the GOP's 2008 standard bearer.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
The Grand Canyon state wasn't the only state to be heard from today though. There was another tight poll in Georgia, a fairly large lead for Obama in New Hampshire and another mid-single digit margin out of West Virginia. But I'll focus on the three toss up states that had new polls out today. In Virginia, there was yet another Obama lead well outside of the margin of error. The Old Dominion is now within half a point of moving into the Obama lean category and if polling like this continues that average will have passed three points sooner rather than later.
The new University of Akron poll in Ohio had Obama up nearly four points, but was in the field in two parts (one, a continued panel survey from earlier in the year and another, just simply a new survey) from the last week of September up through mid-October. So, that one may not join the lower of the two groups of polling results that emerged from the Buckeye state this past week.
Finally, Missouri just looks close. The margin in the Show-Me state is and will likely be within the margin of error from now until election day. Regardless of whether it is a one point lead for McCain or Obama, Missouri is close, but still on the McCain side of the partisan line. But it is on the Watch List to potentially turn blue should polling in the state break toward the Illinois senator in any meaningful over the last nine days of the race.
Still, none of these polls did anything to in anyway change the electoral vote distribution on the map above. Obama continues to hold 338-200 advantage over McCain. And as we enter the final full work week before the election -- a week that will see Obama on TV Wednesday night before the nation -- the "I" word cannot be that far from being broken out. I don't like talking about inevitability, but to not talk about it in the context of a couple (and maybe one more) of polls showing a much closer race in Arizona, is a mistake. I like competition as much as the next guy -- and wouldn't mind seeing the 2008 election throw us all another curveball -- but we may be better served heading into this week talking about the effects these poll numbers may have on turnout and the final margin on November 4.
I've got one scenario analysis in the works from Scott that I'll roll out as the week moves on. It doesn't directly get at the sorts of things I'm angling at, but it does give us some further insight into why we are seeing what we are seeing from the McCain campaign from a strategic standpoint currently.
It seems silly to keep harping on it, but Missouri and Florida are still the states to watch when new polling is out. They are the states who's electoral votes would most likely switch sides of the partisan line. You can add in Virginia to the mix as well, but the Old Dominion is threatening to move into the Obama lean category. One thing is for sure, we'll likely have a lot to sift through tomorrow, including another round of battleground polling from Rasmussen in the late afternoon and of course, that Arizona State/Cronkite poll from the Grand Canyon state.
Nine days left.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
Well, what does this have to do with anything anyway? Alaska, Arizona, Delaware and Illinois are all safe states; the former two for the Republicans and the latter two for the Democrats. Yeah, Alaska looked close for a while before the Palin selection and Arizona turned in a single digit margin or two along the way. Likewise, Illinois and Delaware went without polling for the longest time and were never really at risk for the Democrats in a favorable political climate.
| New Polls (Oct. 26) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Marketing Intelligence | +2 | |
| Arizona | Project New West | +4 | |
| Georgia | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +6 | |
| Iowa | Mason-Dixon-NBC | +11 | |
| Iowa | Research 2000 | +15 | |
| Missouri | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +1 | |
| New Hampshire | Univ. of New Hampshire | +15 | |
| Ohio | Univ. of Akron | +3.7 | |
| Virginia | Public Policy Polling | +9 | |
| West Virginia | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +6 | |
| Wisconsin | Rasmussen | +7 | |
But that changed today. Two new polls out of Arizona showed the race in the Grand Canyon state still favoring McCain, but within the margin of error. And the indications out of Arizona State University's polling outfit, from which a new poll is due out tomorrow, are that last month's eight point margin will have shrunk in this month's survey. So much for home states being safe. Arizona is still very much within the strong McCain category, but it has suddenly shot up the rankings to a spot right behind Georgia. In other words, it is just one state and about three and a quarter points from being a lean state for the Arizona senator. Even though, the state more than likely safe, this is certainly a trend chock full of symbolism. And not the good kind of symbolism either. This is more ominous for the GOP's 2008 standard bearer.
[Click Map to Enlarge]The Grand Canyon state wasn't the only state to be heard from today though. There was another tight poll in Georgia, a fairly large lead for Obama in New Hampshire and another mid-single digit margin out of West Virginia. But I'll focus on the three toss up states that had new polls out today. In Virginia, there was yet another Obama lead well outside of the margin of error. The Old Dominion is now within half a point of moving into the Obama lean category and if polling like this continues that average will have passed three points sooner rather than later.
The new University of Akron poll in Ohio had Obama up nearly four points, but was in the field in two parts (one, a continued panel survey from earlier in the year and another, just simply a new survey) from the last week of September up through mid-October. So, that one may not join the lower of the two groups of polling results that emerged from the Buckeye state this past week.
Finally, Missouri just looks close. The margin in the Show-Me state is and will likely be within the margin of error from now until election day. Regardless of whether it is a one point lead for McCain or Obama, Missouri is close, but still on the McCain side of the partisan line. But it is on the Watch List to potentially turn blue should polling in the state break toward the Illinois senator in any meaningful over the last nine days of the race.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | NJ-15 (172) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| IL-21 (31) | OR-7 (179) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| NY-31 (62) | WA-11 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | AZ-10 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| RI-4 (66) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | SD-3 (127) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (76) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | MS-6 (124) | AL-9 (28) |
| MA-12 (88) | PA-21 (228) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (118) | WY-3 (19) |
| DE-3 (91) | WI-10 (238) | IN-11 (360/189) | AK-3 (84) | ID-4 (16) |
| CT-7 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (375/178) | AR-6 (81) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | MT-3 (163) | SC-8 (75) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Still, none of these polls did anything to in anyway change the electoral vote distribution on the map above. Obama continues to hold 338-200 advantage over McCain. And as we enter the final full work week before the election -- a week that will see Obama on TV Wednesday night before the nation -- the "I" word cannot be that far from being broken out. I don't like talking about inevitability, but to not talk about it in the context of a couple (and maybe one more) of polls showing a much closer race in Arizona, is a mistake. I like competition as much as the next guy -- and wouldn't mind seeing the 2008 election throw us all another curveball -- but we may be better served heading into this week talking about the effects these poll numbers may have on turnout and the final margin on November 4.
I've got one scenario analysis in the works from Scott that I'll roll out as the week moves on. It doesn't directly get at the sorts of things I'm angling at, but it does give us some further insight into why we are seeing what we are seeing from the McCain campaign from a strategic standpoint currently.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
It seems silly to keep harping on it, but Missouri and Florida are still the states to watch when new polling is out. They are the states who's electoral votes would most likely switch sides of the partisan line. You can add in Virginia to the mix as well, but the Old Dominion is threatening to move into the Obama lean category. One thing is for sure, we'll likely have a lot to sift through tomorrow, including another round of battleground polling from Rasmussen in the late afternoon and of course, that Arizona State/Cronkite poll from the Grand Canyon state.
Nine days left.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)
Like Friday, Saturday brought a surprising amount of polling and that was after a slow start to the day. Well, it must be crunch time in the race for the White House. It is and we have a pretty clear picture of where the battle will be over the next ten days of this campaign. [Wow! We'll be in the single digits after tomorrow.] Only a handful of those states were represented in the 11 news polls out of 11 states. Missouri once again showed a one point lead for Barack Obama. The Show-Me state has drawn much closer over the last week and while it is on the verge of turning blue (It is on the Watch List below, for example.), it still leans slightly toward Arizona senator, John McCain.
Colorado and Ohio were also among the targeted few states that had polls released on Saturday. [I almost said "among the toss up states," but Colorado isn't a toss up state anymore. It is receiving a fair amount of attention from the McCain campaign, though.] The Centennial state continues to move away from the Arizona senator and that Rocky Mountain News survey's 12 point margin matched the largest margin in a poll of the state all year. Of course, that one was a McCain lead way back in April, but the new one has swung 24 points toward Obama. To put things in perspective a bit, Rocky Mountain News' last poll right before the Democratic convention had McCain up by three points. That's pretty indicative of how things have gone for John McCain since the economic crisis began.
In Ohio the situation is similar. No, the margin in the University of Cincinnati's poll wasn't the biggest we have seen in Ohio during this cycle, but that three point advantage is the continuation of a trend in that series of polls toward Obama. The initial poll from the firm gave McCain a four point lead in the week after the Republican convention in St. Paul and then grew to 6 points a week later. The first October poll showed that McCain was holding onto a decreasing lead (two points), one that has now turned into a three point Obama lead. So, while this poll is far below what we have seen from some other polls from the Buckeye state this week, it is representative of a nearly ten point shift toward Obama in the time since the Lehman collapse.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
And that's basically the story of the last month of this race in the toss up states -- current and former. Everything else on Saturday was pretty much par for the course. The Marist poll out of New York was a bigger margin than might otherwise have been expected, but the Empire state isn't going anywhere anyway. The rest of the notable data from the day was from the northern plains/prairie. South Dakota turned in yet another single digit McCain lead; the second time this week. But the Mount Rushmore state is probably safely red for John McCain except for the fact that the state will likely be much closer for McCain than it was four years ago for George W. Bush. To the east, in Minnesota, St. Cloud State University weighed in with its first poll of the cycle. And at five points in favor of Obama, the margin was much lower than what we have seen out of the North Star state over the last week or so. A big reason for that may have to do with the large number of undecided voters in the sample (12%). That's a wee bit high considering there are but 10 days left in the race.
Shake ups aside, there just wasn't enough movement as a result of adding these polls to our averages to push any of the states into different categories much less shift any state across the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum. With ten days left, then, the electoral vote tally still stands at 338-200 for Barack Obama. Florida is the closest state currently in blue, but it would require a seven point margin in the very next poll to swing the Sunshine state back into the red. On the other side of the partisan lie, Missouri is the closest of the red states at the moment. For the Show-Me state to turn blue, Obama would need an 11 point lead out of the next poll. In both cases, the magic number seems a bit too high to be feasible. But the momentum in both states is trending toward Obama and while an 11 point poll out of Missouri seems unlikely, a continued series of smaller Obama leads could also shift the state into the blue. There is no early voting in Missouri, so both campaigns have an opportunity to make last pitches to Missourians to tweak their positions there relative to each other.
Missouri was the only state on the Watch List (those states most likely to change categories) to have a new poll released on Saturday, and really, the Show-Me state along with Florida are the states to watch most closely every day. They are the states where category changes have electoral votes switching sides involved.
Ten days left.
Recent Posts:
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 25) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +11 | |
| Colorado | Rocky Mtn. News | +12 | |
| Illinois | Research 2000 | +24 | |
| Minnesota | St. Cloud St. | +5 | |
| Missouri | Research 2000 | +1 | |
| New Jersey | Marist | +17 | |
| New York | Marist | +36 | |
| Ohio | Univ. of Cincinnati | +3 | |
| Pennsylvania | Muhlenberg College | +12 | |
| South Dakota | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +9 | |
| Tennessee | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +16 | |
Colorado and Ohio were also among the targeted few states that had polls released on Saturday. [I almost said "among the toss up states," but Colorado isn't a toss up state anymore. It is receiving a fair amount of attention from the McCain campaign, though.] The Centennial state continues to move away from the Arizona senator and that Rocky Mountain News survey's 12 point margin matched the largest margin in a poll of the state all year. Of course, that one was a McCain lead way back in April, but the new one has swung 24 points toward Obama. To put things in perspective a bit, Rocky Mountain News' last poll right before the Democratic convention had McCain up by three points. That's pretty indicative of how things have gone for John McCain since the economic crisis began.
In Ohio the situation is similar. No, the margin in the University of Cincinnati's poll wasn't the biggest we have seen in Ohio during this cycle, but that three point advantage is the continuation of a trend in that series of polls toward Obama. The initial poll from the firm gave McCain a four point lead in the week after the Republican convention in St. Paul and then grew to 6 points a week later. The first October poll showed that McCain was holding onto a decreasing lead (two points), one that has now turned into a three point Obama lead. So, while this poll is far below what we have seen from some other polls from the Buckeye state this week, it is representative of a nearly ten point shift toward Obama in the time since the Lehman collapse.
[Click Map to Enlarge]And that's basically the story of the last month of this race in the toss up states -- current and former. Everything else on Saturday was pretty much par for the course. The Marist poll out of New York was a bigger margin than might otherwise have been expected, but the Empire state isn't going anywhere anyway. The rest of the notable data from the day was from the northern plains/prairie. South Dakota turned in yet another single digit McCain lead; the second time this week. But the Mount Rushmore state is probably safely red for John McCain except for the fact that the state will likely be much closer for McCain than it was four years ago for George W. Bush. To the east, in Minnesota, St. Cloud State University weighed in with its first poll of the cycle. And at five points in favor of Obama, the margin was much lower than what we have seen out of the North Star state over the last week or so. A big reason for that may have to do with the large number of undecided voters in the sample (12%). That's a wee bit high considering there are but 10 days left in the race.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | NJ-15 (172) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| IL-21 (31) | OR-7 (179) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| NY-31 (62) | WA-11 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | SD-3 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| RI-4 (66) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | MS-6 (134) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (76) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | TX-34 (128) | AL-9 (28) |
| MA-12 (88) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AK-3 (94) | WY-3 (19) |
| DE-3 (91) | PA-21 (238) | IN-11 (360/189) | AR-6 (91) | ID-4 (16) |
| CT-7 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (375/178) | SC-8 (85) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | MT-3 (163) | AZ-10 (77) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Shake ups aside, there just wasn't enough movement as a result of adding these polls to our averages to push any of the states into different categories much less shift any state across the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum. With ten days left, then, the electoral vote tally still stands at 338-200 for Barack Obama. Florida is the closest state currently in blue, but it would require a seven point margin in the very next poll to swing the Sunshine state back into the red. On the other side of the partisan lie, Missouri is the closest of the red states at the moment. For the Show-Me state to turn blue, Obama would need an 11 point lead out of the next poll. In both cases, the magic number seems a bit too high to be feasible. But the momentum in both states is trending toward Obama and while an 11 point poll out of Missouri seems unlikely, a continued series of smaller Obama leads could also shift the state into the blue. There is no early voting in Missouri, so both campaigns have an opportunity to make last pitches to Missourians to tweak their positions there relative to each other.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Missouri was the only state on the Watch List (those states most likely to change categories) to have a new poll released on Saturday, and really, the Show-Me state along with Florida are the states to watch most closely every day. They are the states where category changes have electoral votes switching sides involved.
Ten days left.
Recent Posts:
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy
In the comments section this morning, SarahLawrenceScott brought up what I think is a major reason or why we are seeing what we are seeing from the McCain campaign from a strategic standpoint lately. Why let it come out that you are potentially pulling out of Colorado? Well, for starters, it telegraphs where they are focusing, or have to focus: Pennsylvania. But why target Pennsylvania instead of Colorado? The latter looks closer now than the former -- at least by FHQ's measure.
Well, here's what Scott had to say:
"I just came up with what I think may be the explanation for a lot of what seems to be irrational behavior by the McCain campaign in their choice of states to allocate resources to.
Think, for a moment, what is the most likely victory scenario for McCain in terms of electoral votes. Just move up the Electoral College Spectrum until you get to 270?
No. The problem is that some of those states have already voted in large numbers. For McCain to win, he has to have the state of the race change nationally. But if that change occurs late (say, something equivalent to the Bin Laden tape of 2004 the weekend before the election), then its effect is tempered in early voting states.
Here's the map of states with early voting:
[Click Map to Enlarge]
McCain's best chance of winning is to get some of the states on Obama's side of the partisan line that don't have early voting.
Those are:
MN, WI, VA, MI, DE, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, and NH.
Start by throwing out the deepest of the blue states. Now we've got, in reverse order of their position on the spectrum,
VA, NH, MI, PA, WI, and MN.
Looks an awful lot like where McCain is concentrating his resources, doesn't it?
The one exception there is Michigan. And if they're actually thinking things through (which I admit doesn't seem to be the case), then in the event of one more game-changer they can sweep into Michigan and try to launch a surprise attack of sorts. McCain has enough resources to do that in one largish state, and in the mean time he can save money and resources by leaving it off the list.
The other mystery is why he seems so fixated on Iowa. That I can't understand.
But at least this explains why the interest in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and even Ohio seems a little tepid. McCain needs to defend his states up through Florida, early voting or no (and thus we do see plenty of activity in North Carolina and Florida). That brings him to 227. Assume a major game-changer in the last week. He now adds the non-early-voting states of Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He's at 265. McCain now wins if he can somehow pick off Nevada or Ohio (early voting, but pretty close), or Michigan (no early voting, but would need a last minute blitz).
It's a long shot, but that's the point. To win, McCain has to assume something crazy goes his way, and then be ready to capitalize on it if it does. Going after Pennsylvania, rather than the western states, is the best way to do that.
So the football analogy is no longer the hail Mary pass. Now it's down by 16 with under a minute to go and no time outs. If you can score a touchdown, the plan is clearly to go for a two point conversion. Not because that's the high percentage play--in fact, it's likely to make the defeat worse in point terms. But because if lightning strikes (in the analogy, recovering an onside kick), then at least you're poised to take advantage of it.
That's hypothesis one. Hypothesis two is that they're just clueless."
This is the exact same conclusion we came to yesterday in our weekly campaign discussion group meeting. I absolutely reject the notion that the typically top-notch campaign strategists the GOP has in its fold are clueless. They just don't have a favorable political climate in which to operate and that makes message consistency that much more difficult. We have to look no further than four years ago to see a similar contrast in message consistency. John Kerry never to did find the proper balance on how to deal with the Iraq war just as McCain has been back-peddling since the economic crisis hit. As Scott says, an early voting strategy is a long shot, but if the polls we have seen lately are accurate, then that is all the McCain campaign really has.
Good stuff, Scott. Thanks. I should also extend a thank you to Rich Clark who brought this to my attention yesterday.
Credit where credit is due: The map comes to us courtesy of Wikipedia (plus some FHQ alterations).
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
While You Wait for the New Map, Here's a...Map
Well, here's what Scott had to say:
"I just came up with what I think may be the explanation for a lot of what seems to be irrational behavior by the McCain campaign in their choice of states to allocate resources to.
Think, for a moment, what is the most likely victory scenario for McCain in terms of electoral votes. Just move up the Electoral College Spectrum until you get to 270?
No. The problem is that some of those states have already voted in large numbers. For McCain to win, he has to have the state of the race change nationally. But if that change occurs late (say, something equivalent to the Bin Laden tape of 2004 the weekend before the election), then its effect is tempered in early voting states.
Here's the map of states with early voting:
[Click Map to Enlarge]McCain's best chance of winning is to get some of the states on Obama's side of the partisan line that don't have early voting.
Those are:
MN, WI, VA, MI, DE, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, and NH.
Start by throwing out the deepest of the blue states. Now we've got, in reverse order of their position on the spectrum,
VA, NH, MI, PA, WI, and MN.
Looks an awful lot like where McCain is concentrating his resources, doesn't it?
The one exception there is Michigan. And if they're actually thinking things through (which I admit doesn't seem to be the case), then in the event of one more game-changer they can sweep into Michigan and try to launch a surprise attack of sorts. McCain has enough resources to do that in one largish state, and in the mean time he can save money and resources by leaving it off the list.
The other mystery is why he seems so fixated on Iowa. That I can't understand.
But at least this explains why the interest in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and even Ohio seems a little tepid. McCain needs to defend his states up through Florida, early voting or no (and thus we do see plenty of activity in North Carolina and Florida). That brings him to 227. Assume a major game-changer in the last week. He now adds the non-early-voting states of Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He's at 265. McCain now wins if he can somehow pick off Nevada or Ohio (early voting, but pretty close), or Michigan (no early voting, but would need a last minute blitz).
It's a long shot, but that's the point. To win, McCain has to assume something crazy goes his way, and then be ready to capitalize on it if it does. Going after Pennsylvania, rather than the western states, is the best way to do that.
So the football analogy is no longer the hail Mary pass. Now it's down by 16 with under a minute to go and no time outs. If you can score a touchdown, the plan is clearly to go for a two point conversion. Not because that's the high percentage play--in fact, it's likely to make the defeat worse in point terms. But because if lightning strikes (in the analogy, recovering an onside kick), then at least you're poised to take advantage of it.
That's hypothesis one. Hypothesis two is that they're just clueless."
This is the exact same conclusion we came to yesterday in our weekly campaign discussion group meeting. I absolutely reject the notion that the typically top-notch campaign strategists the GOP has in its fold are clueless. They just don't have a favorable political climate in which to operate and that makes message consistency that much more difficult. We have to look no further than four years ago to see a similar contrast in message consistency. John Kerry never to did find the proper balance on how to deal with the Iraq war just as McCain has been back-peddling since the economic crisis hit. As Scott says, an early voting strategy is a long shot, but if the polls we have seen lately are accurate, then that is all the McCain campaign really has.
Good stuff, Scott. Thanks. I should also extend a thank you to Rich Clark who brought this to my attention yesterday.
Credit where credit is due: The map comes to us courtesy of Wikipedia (plus some FHQ alterations).
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
While You Wait for the New Map, Here's a...Map
Friday, October 24, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)
I had trouble pulling myself away from the Frontline biography [The Choice 2008] on McCain and Obama long enough to write this. Alas, I managed, and if you're interested, the Frontline special is linked above. [Good stuff.]
And the Friday polls? Well, for once a Friday was actually a pretty good day for polling releases. Typically, we've seen the number of polls drop off significantly on Friday, and while there was a decrease compared to Thursday's massive release, to have 19 polls to end the work week gives us something to examine heading into the weekend.
The question of the day? Was the polling any better on Friday than it was on Thursday for John McCain? The short answer is yes. There weren't any Indianas or Montanas in the blue and Iowa and New Hampshire, at first glance, looked much closer than they have been recently. A closer look shows us that while both were tighter than they had been compared to other polling of late, there were differing results compared to the last poll conducted by the same firm in those states. The previous time Rasmussen surveyed both Iowa and New Hampshire, Iowa showed the exact same 8 point margin for Barack Obama as September turned into October.
The Illinois senator's margin in New Hampshire, however, dropped six points from 10 t0 4 over the same period. Of all the states, New Hampshire seems to be one that moves the most in conjunction with how the national polls are trending. But that may not be the case here. John McCain has a base of support among the independents in the Granite state dating back to his 2000 run for the Republican nomination, and it could be, though I can't confirm this on Rasmussen's site [The toplines from the last poll aren't up anymore. When and if they reappear, I'll check.], that the few undecideds have decided to line up behind McCain. We don't have the October 1 toplines, but the previous Rasmussen poll of the Granite state shows the same number of undecideds during the last week of September as there are now, 3%. So, that may not be the reason the margin has closed.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Outside of those two instances of McCain gains, the rest of the day was kind of a mixed bag. Sure, Obama was up a point in the latest Insider Advantage poll in Georgia (Yes, Georgia! I wouldn't mind seeing the Peach state get competitive. It's good for business.), but that was balanced out by the six point advantage McCain had there in the Strategic Vision poll. Still, even if the former is disregarded, that six point edge for McCain is smaller than the lead had earlier in the month. And it should also be noted that Insider Advantage has periodically had Georgia much closer than the other polls of the state throughout this election year. It was a couple of polls earlier in the summer from the organization -- +1 and +2 for McCain -- that raised the possibility that Georgia could be in play. Yes, that talk had been around since Obama's Super Tuesday victory in the state, but those two polls certainly didn't hurt that perception, giving them some actual independent polling evidence of the potential closeness. At this time though, it looks like Georgia is still out of Obama's grasp.
There was a similar canceling effect with the Ohio polls of the day as well. On the one hand, Insider Advantage's survey of the Buckeye state confirmed the double digit margins in the Quinnipiac and Big Ten polls a day earlier. But on the other, Strategic Vision showed a 3 point McCain lead. That's a pretty big margin, but we have seen this in Ohio before. [Within a week of each other late in July, PPP and Rasmussen had polls showing an 8 point Obama lead and a 10 point McCain lead respectively.] The late-night release of the PPP poll carves out a nice position between the two other Ohio polls of the day at seven points. My intuition tells me that even that is a bit high, but is indicative of the shift toward Obama since the Lehman collapse triggered the economic bailout situation on Captiol Hill.
But on a good Friday poll day, nothing changed on the map and little else changed in the rankings reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum. Georgia did move enough to be added to the Watch List, but the Peach state isn't likely to move any more than into the McCain lean category between now and election day. FHQ's measures aside, for Georgia to move into the blue on November 4, it would take something on the order of a 10 point win nationally for the Illinois senator. I suppose that could happen, but we rarely see such resounding victories in presidential elections, especially, as Seth Masket has continually cautioned, since this is an "open seat" presidential election. In those situations, the losing candidate is typically able to get to at least 45% of the vote. That would put ten points as the ceiling on what a winning candidate can achieve.
Finally, Nevada also moves off the Watch List for today. What? With no polls? Yeah, keep in mind that every state's average changes everyday now. That is because the weighting scheme is dependent upon the number of days since Super Tuesday to determine the weight of each poll conducted since that time. Nevada, as we said the other day, was a few thousandths of a point from moving off the list, and has gotten that fraction as the weighting has changed since.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
While You Wait for the New Map, Here's a...Map
The Electoral College Map (10/23/08)
And the Friday polls? Well, for once a Friday was actually a pretty good day for polling releases. Typically, we've seen the number of polls drop off significantly on Friday, and while there was a decrease compared to Thursday's massive release, to have 19 polls to end the work week gives us something to examine heading into the weekend.
| New Polls (Oct. 24) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Capital Survey Research Center | +20 | |
| Florida | Strategic Vision | +2 | |
| Florida | Insider Advantage | +1 | |
| Georgia | Strategic Vision | +6 | |
| Georgia | Insider Advantage | +1 | |
| Iowa | Rasmussen | +8 | |
| Kentucky | Research 2000 | +16 | |
| Massachusetts | Suffolk | +19 | |
| Michigan | EPIC/MRA | +14 | |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen | +4 | |
| North Carolina | Winthrop/ETV | +0.4 | |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen | +2 | |
| Ohio | Strategic Vision | +3 | |
| Ohio | Insider Advantage | +10 | |
| Ohio | Public Policy Polling | +7 | |
| Oregon | Riley | +14 | |
| Pennsylvania | Strategic Vision | +7 | |
| South Carolina | Winthrop/ETV | +20.2 | |
| Virginia | Winthrop/ETV | +1 | |
The question of the day? Was the polling any better on Friday than it was on Thursday for John McCain? The short answer is yes. There weren't any Indianas or Montanas in the blue and Iowa and New Hampshire, at first glance, looked much closer than they have been recently. A closer look shows us that while both were tighter than they had been compared to other polling of late, there were differing results compared to the last poll conducted by the same firm in those states. The previous time Rasmussen surveyed both Iowa and New Hampshire, Iowa showed the exact same 8 point margin for Barack Obama as September turned into October.
The Illinois senator's margin in New Hampshire, however, dropped six points from 10 t0 4 over the same period. Of all the states, New Hampshire seems to be one that moves the most in conjunction with how the national polls are trending. But that may not be the case here. John McCain has a base of support among the independents in the Granite state dating back to his 2000 run for the Republican nomination, and it could be, though I can't confirm this on Rasmussen's site [The toplines from the last poll aren't up anymore. When and if they reappear, I'll check.], that the few undecideds have decided to line up behind McCain. We don't have the October 1 toplines, but the previous Rasmussen poll of the Granite state shows the same number of undecideds during the last week of September as there are now, 3%. So, that may not be the reason the margin has closed.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Outside of those two instances of McCain gains, the rest of the day was kind of a mixed bag. Sure, Obama was up a point in the latest Insider Advantage poll in Georgia (Yes, Georgia! I wouldn't mind seeing the Peach state get competitive. It's good for business.), but that was balanced out by the six point advantage McCain had there in the Strategic Vision poll. Still, even if the former is disregarded, that six point edge for McCain is smaller than the lead had earlier in the month. And it should also be noted that Insider Advantage has periodically had Georgia much closer than the other polls of the state throughout this election year. It was a couple of polls earlier in the summer from the organization -- +1 and +2 for McCain -- that raised the possibility that Georgia could be in play. Yes, that talk had been around since Obama's Super Tuesday victory in the state, but those two polls certainly didn't hurt that perception, giving them some actual independent polling evidence of the potential closeness. At this time though, it looks like Georgia is still out of Obama's grasp.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | WV-5 (157) | KY-8 (58) |
| IL-21 (31) | NJ-15 (179) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| RI-4 (35) | WA-11 (190) | OH-20 (306/252) | SD-3 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (45) | IA-7 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | MS-6 (134) | NE-5 (33) |
| MA-12 (57) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | TX-34 (128) | AL-9 (28) |
| NY-31 (88) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AK-3 (94) | WY-3 (19) |
| DE-3 (91) | PA-21 (238) | IN-11 (360/189) | SC-8 (91) | ID-4 (16) |
| CT-7 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (375/178) | AZ-10 (83) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | MT-3 (163) | AR-6 (73) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
There was a similar canceling effect with the Ohio polls of the day as well. On the one hand, Insider Advantage's survey of the Buckeye state confirmed the double digit margins in the Quinnipiac and Big Ten polls a day earlier. But on the other, Strategic Vision showed a 3 point McCain lead. That's a pretty big margin, but we have seen this in Ohio before. [Within a week of each other late in July, PPP and Rasmussen had polls showing an 8 point Obama lead and a 10 point McCain lead respectively.] The late-night release of the PPP poll carves out a nice position between the two other Ohio polls of the day at seven points. My intuition tells me that even that is a bit high, but is indicative of the shift toward Obama since the Lehman collapse triggered the economic bailout situation on Captiol Hill.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
But on a good Friday poll day, nothing changed on the map and little else changed in the rankings reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum. Georgia did move enough to be added to the Watch List, but the Peach state isn't likely to move any more than into the McCain lean category between now and election day. FHQ's measures aside, for Georgia to move into the blue on November 4, it would take something on the order of a 10 point win nationally for the Illinois senator. I suppose that could happen, but we rarely see such resounding victories in presidential elections, especially, as Seth Masket has continually cautioned, since this is an "open seat" presidential election. In those situations, the losing candidate is typically able to get to at least 45% of the vote. That would put ten points as the ceiling on what a winning candidate can achieve.
Finally, Nevada also moves off the Watch List for today. What? With no polls? Yeah, keep in mind that every state's average changes everyday now. That is because the weighting scheme is dependent upon the number of days since Super Tuesday to determine the weight of each poll conducted since that time. Nevada, as we said the other day, was a few thousandths of a point from moving off the list, and has gotten that fraction as the weighting has changed since.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)
While You Wait for the New Map, Here's a...Map
The Electoral College Map (10/23/08)
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