--
Recent posts:
Recent posts:
Saturday, October 31, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/31/20)
Update for October 31.
On the whole, however, the movement on the day was toward Trump. Most of that was fueled by a series of newly released Trafalgar Group polls that dominated the 14 polls from 11 different states. There will be more on that below.
Polling Quick Hits:
NOTE:
It was another day with a fair number of polls and very little to show for it at FHQ. The map and tally remain unchanged from a day ago as does the order of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum. And the eight state within a point of changing categories at FHQ were the same as they were at the close of business on Friday. There are some subtle movements afoot, but this still looks like a pretty steady race.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 31 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 49, Trump 49 via AtlasIntel)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98]
AtlasIntel: Biden 45, Trump 45 in March poll
The margin in the Sunshine state ticked under Biden +3 on Saturday on the weight of two polls that either favored Trump or came in under Biden's average advantage. In the latter case -- the tie in the AtlasIntall update -- the race was knotted at 49. That is a result that is not at all inconsistent with the recent Florida polling and is actually consistent with the firm's last poll there way back in March. Then, the race was tied at 45 (also among likely voters).
Minnesota
(Biden 54, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll
Public Policy Polling: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll
Outside of the recent Minnesota polls in the Survey USA series, the race for the 10 electoral votes on the line in the Land of 10,000 Lakes has not been particularly close. Yet, despite that and despite the fact that the margin widened in the PPP series in Minnesota since the last poll in September, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump were in the state on Friday. The former vice president's share of support in the North Star state is above 50 percent and his lead over eight points there. Minnesota and Michigan resemble one another at FHQ, but there has been three times more polling in the Great Lakes state than in Minnesota. Than again, Democrats are fighting the last battle in a way in region in 2020 after Hillary Clinton's campaign was perceived to have dropped the ball down the stretch four years ago.
Missouri
(Trump 50, Biden 45 via Remington Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.40]
Remington: Trump 51, Biden 45 in mid-October poll
One could quibble over the one point contraction in the Remington series of polls in the Show-Me state since the last poll the firm had in the field there two weeks ago. But taking a longer view of the series, that one point change is part of a downward trajectory through the lens of Remington polls in Missouri. In the last four polls the firm has conducted there since September the Trump's margin has gradually decreased from eight to five points. But the last three have been in the Trump +5-6 point range. Missouri will be closer in 2020 than it was four years ago, but the competitiveness of the state will only bring the Show-Me state toward the Toss Up/Lean line on the Trump side of the ledger. Again, that is closer but not close enough to be a state that would tip toward Biden in even his rosiest landslide scenarios.
North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Meeting Street Insights)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.86]
Meeting Street: Biden 47, Trump 47 in May poll
Meeting Street: Biden 47, Trump 47 in May poll
Much of North Carolina polling operates within three points range of three points from a tie. And Meeting Street Insights actually found the race moving from a tie in its May poll to a three point Biden advantage in its latest update. Again, the race for the Tar Heel state's 15 electoral votes is close and this update did little to shake the state from its position tilted between one and two points in the former vice president's direction. It is also in line with the current 48-46 (rounded) Biden lead in the FHQ averages.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 44 via Muhlenberg)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.36]
Muhlenberg: Biden 51, Trump 44 in poll last week
Muhlenberg: Biden 51, Trump 44 in poll last week
The only thing one really needs to check in any poll of Pennsylvania is whether it breaks with the pattern of Biden landing somewhere around 50 percent with Trump in the mid-40s. The update from Muhlenberg to a survey last week checks that box, but it also saw the gap between the two major party candidates contract by a couple of points. Biden lost two points while the president remained stationary at 44 percent. Barring an onslaught of new Keystone state polling between now and election day, the margin in the commonwealth is going to end up near Biden +5 heading into Tuesday.
Texas
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.37]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 49 in early October poll
Just yesterday FHQ discussed the president's proximity to 50 percent in Lone Star state polling. Trump has only been at or north of the majority mark about a fifth of the time all year in Texas, but today it is Biden who hits the mark for only the second time in 2020. And that also has now happened in the second consecutive PPP survey in the state. In the end, that may say more about PPP than about Biden and how near he is to 50 percent. Texas continues to be a state that is stuck on a 48-46 Trump lead. That is about seven points closer than in 2016 and close enough to be a toss up, but still a state that is going to fall short of ending up on the Watch List as this race draws to a close.
Virginia
(Biden 53, Trump 42 via Roanoke College)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.74]
Roanoke: Biden 53, Trump 38 in mid-October poll
Roanoke: Biden 53, Trump 38 in mid-October poll
Trump gained ground in the latest update in the Roanoke College series of polls in the Old Dominion, but that actually only served to pull him in line with the FHQ averages Virginia. Biden now leads on that count by a 53-41 (rounded) margin. If anything, the previous Roanoke polls overrated the former vice president's lead in the commonwealth. Overall, the averages in Virginia now have Biden running about three points ahead of Clinton's pace in 2016 and Trump lagging nearly three points behind his. That is a slightly below average swing from the results there in 2016 to the polling average now.
Trafalgar Group (late October battleground polls):
Arizona: Trump 49, Biden 46 (Trump 48, Biden 44 in early October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.91]
Florida: Trump 50, Biden 47 (Trump 48, Biden 46 in mid-October poll)
Michigan: Trump 49, Biden 47 (Trump 47, Biden 45 in mid-October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.32]
Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Biden 48 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll)
Wisconsin: Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49]
Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 47 (No previous Trafalgar poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.50]
Minnesota: Biden 48, Trump 45 (Biden 47, Trump 47 in August poll)
Rather than take these seven polls from Trafalgar Group individually, FHQ will look at them as a group. Clearly, Trafalgar is a firm that produces some of the most Republican-friendly surveys out there, but pushing that aside -- or merely assuming that fact for that matter -- the trajectory of change in those polls is still important relative to other pollsters at work on the state-level across the country. What emerges from this batch from the firm with right-leaning results is a mixed message. There is not clear signal. Arizona and Pennsylvania narrowed, moving toward Trump poll-over-poll. Florida Michigan and Wisconsin, on the other hand, witnessed either minimal change or maintained the previous margin. And the margin in the Trafalgar series in Minnesota actually widened, helping Biden. The only tie that binds is that all seven states are within three points. Yet, at FHQ, only Arizona and Florida meet that bar, and only just barely at that.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
| NJ-14
(156)
|
WI-10
(253)
| AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(163)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(122)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| IL-20
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
| SD-3
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
| MT-3 NE CD1-1
(103)
| AL-9
(38)
|
NY-29
(60)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
| KS-6
(99)
|
ID-4
(29)
|
CA-55
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
| IN-11
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
| NE-2
(82)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
| IA-6
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
| OH-18
(181)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
3 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 31 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Kansas
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Friday, October 30, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/30/20)
Update for October 30.
The final full work week prior to election day next Tuesday came to a close Friday laden with another [totally expected] round poll releases. In all, there were 37 new surveys added from 21 states, fueled by a 16 state wave from Swayable that offered some interesting results that were not necessarily in sync with what has been established in state-level polls across the country in 2020. Across the full set of the day's surveys five of the FHQ categories were represented with only the small group of Lean Trump states left out.
But as this race eases into the weekend before voting concludes next week, things are probably pretty close to locked in at FHQ. As the days dwindle, movement in the order will likely be confined to the states on the Watch List below. And even among that group of eight states -- now that New Hampshire has rejoined the List -- only three are within a fraction of a point of shifting over the partisan line and altering the overall electoral vote tally. The trajectory of recent polling suggests that Georgia is likely to stay on the Biden side of the line and that Iowa is closing, pushing toward the former vice president as well. Ohio, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction toward the periphery of even being included on the Watch List.
Aside from those three and barring an absolute flood of polling from North Carolina and/or Texas (and Maine's second congressional district for that matter), those states are also likely to stay just where they are at FHQ. Both have proven to be have been consistently close but persistently on their respective sides of the partisan line. That does not mean, however, that either is destined to fall in their projected categories come Tuesday (or in the following few days), but rather that each is within a range where a polling error of two or three points could easily place either in the other candidate's coalition of states once the dust has settled.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut
(Biden 51, Trump 26 via Sacred Heart University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.99]
Biden 47, Trump 34 in April poll
Clearly Sacred Heart does not aggressively push their undecideds. There is still a 20 percent chunk of respondents in this latest survey that fall in that category. But even with such a high share of undecideds, Biden still has a 25 point advantage over Trump in a state that will be blue when the votes come in.
Florida
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.08]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 48, Trump 44 in August poll
Harris: Biden 48, Trump 48 in mid-October poll
FHQ mentioned this yesterday and will repeat it today given these two new surveys out of the Sunshine state: The race in Florida may in fact be narrowing, but Biden continues to hit 50 percent in polls at a higher clip as election day approaches than he did in earlier times. Both updates also shifted in the Democratic nominee's favor as well.
Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Landmark Communications)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.41]
Trump 49, Biden 45 in poll last week
The Landmark Communications series of polls in the Peach state this year has tended to favor the president with only one exception: the poll in the field the day after the first presidential debate at the end of September. Biden led that survey by a couple of points, but has consistently trailed Trump in the series. Yet, the president's edge shrunk in the last week since the previous Landmark survey. Although the poll shows Trump in the lead, the movement toward Biden is consistent with other recent polling of Georgia.
Kentucky
(Trump 52, Biden 39 via Bluegrass Community and Technical College)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.09]
No previous Bluegrass poll
That the president had but 52 percent of respondents backing him in this Bluegrass C&T poll is largely attributable to the nearly 10 percent of the sample that remained undecided. Like Connecticut, however, Kentucky is a safe state, but one that tips in Trump's direction. But it should be noted that this matches the lowest share of support the president has had in any Kentucky poll all year. But Biden has been fairly stable in the upper 30s in recent polls and the Bluegrass state will be red on Tuesday or soon thereafter.
Michigan
(Biden 54, Trump 44 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 44 via RMG Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Kiaer Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.43]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 43 in poll last week
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 43 in poll last week
RMG Research: Biden 48, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Kiaer Research: Biden 50, Trump 35 in June poll
The big thing in Michigan at this late date is that after weeks of being on the cusp of cresting above 50 percent in the FHQ averages, Biden has finally done so after another batch surveys on Friday showing the former vice president over that threshold across the board. And with the exception of the Kiaer survey, the Democratic nominee's edge has increased from poll-to-poll as well. Even in that survey, Biden maintains a double digit lead.
Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.65]
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 44 (rounded)]
While this Gravis poll of the Silver state basically falls right on the established FHQ average margin in Nevada, it did bump the margin up toward the five point line that separates the Toss Up and Lean categories. Nevada remains a toss up under the FHQ averages, but that may be partially explained by the general lack of polling overall in the state. There have been just 21 surveys of Silver state voters, but Biden has been hovering around 50 percent much of the time. The former vice president has hit or surpassed that threshold eight time with half coming during the month of October alone.
New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 45 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 52, Trump 44 via Saint Anselm)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.81]
UNH: Biden 55, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
Saint Anselm: Biden 53, Trump 41 in early October poll
While much of the new polling today shifted in Biden's direction, the latest updates from Granite state university polls saw some contraction in the margins in both over the last surveys in the series. Despite that decrease, however, the president continues to lag overall by more than ten points in a state that was decided by less than a point four years ago. Trump did make up some ground, pulling out of the low 40s in both polls. He currently sits at 42 percent in the FHQ averages.
North Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Cardinal Point Analytics | Biden 50, Trump 48 via East Carolina | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Marist)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85]
Pulse Opinion Research: Trump 49, Biden 48 in mid-October poll
Pulse Opinion Research: Trump 49, Biden 48 in mid-October poll
No previous Harris poll
Cardinal Point: Trump 48, Biden 47 in July poll
ECU: Biden 51, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Marist: Biden 51, Trump 44 in July poll
The one take home message from another slew of polling out of the Tar Heel state is that North Carolina is close. That is not news. But on top of that, there is little change across any of these polls from their prior times in the field in the state. It was movement of a point for either candidate and no more than a two point swing in any of them. Of course, a two point swing can matter in a tightly contested state. But there was a two point swing in each candidate's favor.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.43]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
Public Policy Polling: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
Harris: Biden 51, Trump 46 in mid-October poll
As tiring as it might get saying this, there were another two polls in the Keystone state today and both, again, had Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the mid-40s. The consistency across pollsters in Pennsylvania is what continues to be most noteworthy. The uncertainty in the commonwealth is less in the polls and more about turnout and any court challenges about the vote counting process there.
Texas
(Trump 50, Biden 46 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.45]
No previous RMG poll [Current FHQ averages in Texas: Trump 48, Biden 46 (rounded)]
FHQ often talks about how often Biden tops 50 percent in the blue wall states that are in the Lean Biden category, but it is an indicator of sorts for the president in red state polling as well. Of the 67 surveys conducted thus far in the Lone Star state, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark in roughly a fifth of them. A little less than a quarter of those have fallen in the month of October, a pace similar to the rest of the year. Biden, on the other, hand has been there just once. It is that difference that helps to explain the narrow lead the president has maintained in Texas throughout 2020. The Lone Star state has been close all along, but like North Carolina on the other side of the partisan line for Biden, has been tipped in the president's favor.
Wyoming
(Trump 59, Biden 31 via University of Wyoming)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +39.52]
No previous University of Wyoming poll [Current FHQ averages in Wyoming: Trump 68, Biden 29 (rounded)]
A rare update in Wyoming shows Trump coming in well under what one might expect in the Equality state for a Republican presidential nominee. However, even with a share of support under 60 percent and nearly ten points off his average at FHQ, the president is far out in front in the state occupying the last cell on the far right end of the Electoral College Spectrum below. The polling has been scant in the Cowboy state in 2020, but it collectively has both candidates within a point of their parties' presidential performance in the state in 2016.
Swayable (October battleground and assorted polls -- initial public wave of releases):
Alabama: Trump 56, Biden 37 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.75]
Ohio: Trump 55, Biden 44 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.00]
Indiana: Trump 53, Biden 42 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.36]
Florida: Trump 51, Biden 46
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 48
Georgia: Biden 51, Trump 48
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 48
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 46
Arizona: Biden 52, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98]
Wisconsin: Biden 54, Trump 45 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49]
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.79]
Illinois: Biden 54, Trump 43 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +18.32]
Michigan: Biden 59, Trump 40
New Jersey: Biden 62, Trump 38 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.09]
California: Biden 62, Trump 35 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.36]
New York: Biden 65, Trump 33 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56]
This is an interesting wave of polls from Swayable made all the more so by a couple of glaring standouts. Not only is the order not particularly in line with the established order of states at FHQ, but the world where Trump is ahead by 12 in Ohio and Biden is up 19 in neighboring Michigan is a strange world indeed. But a 31 point gap between the two in these surveys is a significant departure from the eight points that separated the two Rust Belt states in 2016 and the roughly equivalent space between them in the averages at FHQ. The picture here at FHQ is one of a uniform swing for Michigan and Ohio relative to each other from four years ago. Yet, the snapshot in the small sample Swayable polls is one big shifts but in opposite directions. Take these with a grain of salt.
One other footnote here with respect to Ohio is that the average margin in the Buckeye state rounds up to Trump +1 right on the nose. But since the margin there is technically Trump +0.9985, the Buckeye state remains on the Watch List below, but only just barely.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
| NJ-14
(156)
|
WI-10
(253)
| AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(163)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(122)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| IL-20
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
| SD-3
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
| MT-3 NE CD1-1
(103)
| AL-9
(38)
|
NY-29
(60)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
| KS-6
(99)
|
ID-4
(29)
|
CA-55
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
| IN-11
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
| NE-2
(82)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
| IA-6
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
| OH-18
(181)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
All those surveys -- again, 37 polls in 21 states -- and there was little in the way of change that materialized at FHQ. The new Swayable poll out of the Land of Lincoln decreased the margin there enough to shift Illinois past both New Jersey and Oregon in the order, moving it closer to the partisan line. The same was true in neighboring Indiana, where the margin contract to the point that the Hoosier state traded spots in the order with Nebraska. Indiana is now the most competitive of the Strong Trump states. And the two university surveys out of the Granite state nudged New Hampshire back onto the Watch List a day after at least one outlier from ARG moved it off the list.
But that was it. Friday came and went with a raft of new polling data that mostly confirmed the status quo in this race for the White House.
4 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Kansas
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Thursday, October 29, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/29/20)
Update for October 29.
Well, it is too bad there were not any new polls on the Thursday before the election concludes next week. Oh wait.
With five days left in the general election campaign there was actually a flood of new state-level polling data. Here at FHQ 34 surveys from 18 states spanning all six categories were released since the last update to the projection yesterday. In two-thirds of those states, the additional polls moved the FHQ average margins in Joe Biden's direction. And that, too, encompassed states in all six categories. But President Trump was not without a silver lining in the face of all that. Margins in both Arizona and Minnesota pushed toward him on the day. However, despite another day of subtle movements, little changed in the meta-analysis. It was another date marked off the calendar in which Trump failed to meaningfully cut into Biden's advantage across the country.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 58, Biden 39 via AU-Montgomery )
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.88]
Trump 57, Biden 37 in September poll
If this was a day that mostly maintained the status quo in the race for the White House, then the latest update from Auburn University in Montgomery is a solid lead off example. There not only was not much movement from September to now in the series, but the new poll closely tracks with the 58-38 (rounded) edge Trump has in the Yellowhammer state. Overall, that is enough to make Alabama safe for the president next week, but it is in line to shift toward the Democrats by about eight points since 2016.
Alaska
(Trump 52, Biden 43 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.34]
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Alaska: Trump 50, Biden 44 (rounded)]
Recall that Alaska was a state where Trump barely topped 50 percent in 2016. That has been true in most polls in 2020, including this new Gravis survey of the Last Frontier. All that means that Trump has not exactly built on his win there four years ago, but he also has not lost much. Biden, on the other hand, more than seven points ahead of Clinton's 2016 share of support on election day in 2020 polling. That is enough to make Alaska more competitive, but not enough to get in the likely range of what the former vice president should expect on a really good night next Tuesday.
Arizona
(Trump 49, Biden 45 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 47, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.90]
Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 48, Trump 46 in last poll
Ipsos: Biden 50, Trump 46 in last poll
If there was one state today where that broke with the status quo, it was Arizona. There was movement in the Grand Canyon state in Trump's direction in both updates released in the state today. The Pulse update to a recent poll was reminiscent of the InsiderAdvantage survey released out of Pennsylvania earlier this week. Both saw a fairly dramatic shift, poll-to-poll, from Biden to the president. And neither really matches the movement -- or lack thereof -- in October polling. Although the Pulse survey is astray of the 48-45 (rounded) advantage Biden has in Arizona at FHQ, it has Trump at the top of his range and Biden at the bottom of his.
Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 46 via Monmouth | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Marist | Biden 45, Trump 42 via Quinnipiac | Biden 48, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.14]
Monmouth: Biden 49, Trump 46 in September poll
Marist: Biden 48, Trump 48 in September poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 40 in early October poll
Ipsos: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
[NOTE: Using data from the high turnout Monmouth model -- a 51-45 Biden advantage -- would have increased the average FHQ margin to Biden +3.16 in Florida.]
With the exception of the Quinnipiac survey, which updated an outlier from a couple of weeks ago, Biden benefited from the updates in the other three polls that were released in Florida today. There was not movement toward Biden in all of them, but his advantages stretched in all three. More importantly, the Democratic nominee hit 50 percent in that trio of Sunshine state surveys as well. Like the discussion about Arizona polling a day ago, there may be evidence of some narrowing in Florida as well. But it is offset by how frequently Biden has been at or above 50 percent in recent Florida polling. The former vice president has been at or beyond the majority mark in 41 of 108 surveys in the Sunshine state this year. And nearly half of that 41 -- 19 surveys -- have found Biden hitting or exceeding 50 percent in just October alone.
Georgia
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.40]
Biden 47, Trump 46 in early October poll
At first glance, little change from the early October Georgia poll from PPP, but then, that is par for the course in this series in 2020. Other than the June poll in which Biden led by four, the remaining surveys have all 1) had him ahead and 2) by margins in the one to two point range. This poll not only fits that trend, but is consistent with where most of the recent polling has been in the Peach state.
Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.64]
Biden, 50, Trump 45 in early October poll
FHQ does not know if Quinnipiac was spooked by that Florida outlier cited above, but today's batch from the university pollster seems to be a correction of some form. That may or may not be the case, but the percentage of undecideds grew from the last poll to now in three of the four polls including this Iowa survey. Only in Pennsylvania did the share of undecideds decrease. Regardless, that dynamic, whether a correction of some sort or natural movement (not really seen in other state-level polling) has closed the gap in Iowa from a poll just a couple of week ago. And it is also true that the last round of Q-polls were simple outliers and this is a regression to the mean. This Iowa poll is consistent with the 47-46 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. But that undecided shift is a curious footnote.
Maine
(Biden 53, Trump 39 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.54]
Maine CD1
(Biden 59, Trump 40 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.36]
Maine CD2
(Biden 51, Trump 49 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.77]
No previous Survey USA poll [Current FHQ averages in ME CD2: Biden 46, Trump 45 (rounded)]
FHQ will not dwell on this new Survey USA survey that encompassed all three jurisdictions with electoral votes at stake in the Pine Tree state. The second congressional district will be the most competitive of the bunch and the ranked choice voting-simulated version of that poll -- one that took second, third and fourth preferences -- gave the former vice president a two point edge that closely resembles the projected advantage he currently holds for that one electoral vote. There has not been a ton of polling in these two Maine districts, but what has been in the field has tended to favor Biden more often than not.
Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 42 via Mitchell Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.21]
Biden 51, Trump 41 in mid-October poll
Biden 51, Trump 41 in mid-October poll
The Mitchell poll a week ago was on the upper end of the margins Biden has enjoyed in recent polling of the Great Lakes state, and the update this week ahead of the election does not look that much different. It still has Biden on the upper end of his range in the state and Trump near the bottom of his. This poll does expand the Democratic nominee's advantage in Michigan, but not by much.
Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 42 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.39]
Biden 48, Trump 42 in last week's poll
Biden 48, Trump 42 in last week's poll
The new Survey USA poll of Minnesota is not that different from the Michigan update above. But it is, perhaps, on the opposite end of the spectrum. There was not much change from one week to the next through a Survey USA lens that has Biden at the bottom of his October range and Trump consistent with his FHQ average share of support in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Survey USA has also conducted three of the nine October surveys in Minnesota and has provided three of the four instances in which Biden has failed to reach 50 percent in the state.
Montana
(Trump 52, Biden 45 via MSU-Billings)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.76]
No previous MSU-Billings poll [Current FHQ averages in Montana: Trump 51, Biden 44 (rounded)]
First of all, this MSU-Billings survey of the Treasure state is consistent with the established FHQ average. But it also adds even more evidence to the massive potential shift there from 2016 to now. The existing Montana polling points to a more than 13 point swing toward the Democrats. That is enough to pull Montana into the Lean Trump category, but that is probably it. Still, that potential shift highlight just how uncompetitive Montana ended up being four years ago.
New Hampshire
(Biden 58, Trump 39 via American Research Group | Biden 53, Trump 43 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.13]
American Research Group: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll
There was little movement in the UMass-Lowell series in the Granite state from September to now, but that was not the case in the ARG series. As surprising as it may seem, the Alabama poll above and this ARG survey of New Hampshire mirror each other. And yes, Alabama is closer than is typical of the Yellowhammer state in presidential elections, but an equivalent 19 point gap in New Hampshire grabs the attention. That is doubly true for a state that was tight in 2016 and that the president's reelection effort was targeting earlier in this cycle. [The president was just there over the weekend too.] Given a uniform swing from four years ago, New Hampshire would not be competitive necessarily, but it also would not likely by tipped nearly 20 points in Biden's direction either.
New Jersey
(Biden 61, Trump 37 via Rutgers/Eagleton)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.74]
Biden 56, Trump 33 (among registered voters) in May poll
That Biden has hit 60 percent in the update to May's Rutgers/Eagleton poll of New Jersey is noteworthy in and of itself. He has only reached those heights in a couple of the Survey Monkey polls of the Garden state this year. But it also serves to highlight just how little the former vice president has improved on Clinton's showing in New Jersey four years ago. It stands out as the exception rather than the rule. The president, on the other hand, has been consistently in the upper 30s there, a little more than four points off his 2016 pace there.
North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85]
Siena: Biden 46, Trump 42 in earlier October poll
Siena: Biden 46, Trump 42 in earlier October poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 47, Trump 47 in September poll
The Citizen Data survey (described as part of the collective wave below) did all the heavy lifting in pushing the FHQ average margin in North Carolina closer to Biden +2, but the other two polls of the Tar Heel state released today maintained the status quo. Neither the Siena nor the UMass-Lowell surveys saw any substantial shifts from the last polls in those respective series and neither update differs much from the range of polls out of North Carolina in October (or the rest of the year for that matter). Biden continues to maintain a 48-46 (rounded) advantage at FHQ.
Ohio
(Trump 49, Biden 47 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 48, Trump 43 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67]
No previous Gravis poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 48, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
While the first Gravis poll in the Buckeye state is in line with the small lead that Trump has had there throughout much of 2020, the Quinnipiac survey is not. But unlike the Florida and Iowa Q-polls, the one in Ohio swung toward Biden and not the president. It did, however, see the share of undecideds grow from the previous poll in the series. That drew in the margin, pushing Ohio closer to the partisan line, but the Buckeye state remains a state that is close but slightly tilted toward the president. The wiggle room in Ohio polling is that neither candidate has really been north of 50 percent much all year. Of the 42 polls that have been in the field there in 2020, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark only eight times and Biden has only done so in three surveys. Trump is the only one to get there in October, but even then, only once.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 45 via RMG Research | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Franklin and Marshall)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.41]
RMG Research: Biden 49, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
RMG Research: Biden 49, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Franklin and Marshall: Biden 48, Trump 42 in September poll
If there is any new Pennsylvania poll out, then odds are it will have Biden around 50 percent and Trump somewhere in the mid-40s. All three polls fit that mold today, and while both the RMG and the Franklin and Marshall polls showed positive movement for both candidates, both new surveys maintained the margins from the previous polls in each series. This string of polls nudged Biden that much closer to 50 percent in the averages at FHQ as well.
Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.40]
UMass-Lowell: Trump 49, Biden 46 in September poll
Minimal movement from one UMass-Lowell survey of Texas to the next did little to change the outlook in the Lone Star state. Trump still has the advantage in a state that continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump side of the partisan line: close, but consistently tipped toward the president. And like North Carolina, it was the Citizen Data survey that triggered the changes in the Texas average margin.
Vermont
(Biden 62, Trump 32 via co/efficient)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +36.71]
No previous co/efficient poll [Current FHQ averages in Vermont: Biden 66, Trump 30 (rounded)]
No previous co/efficient poll [Current FHQ averages in Vermont: Biden 66, Trump 30 (rounded)]
A rare Vermont poll failed to offer any real suspense. The Green Mountain state is a heavy Biden lean off on the far left end of the order on the Electoral College Spectrum, and other than Biden ending up closer to 60 percent rather than 70 percent, this poll -- an internal Republican survey for the lieutenant governor's race in Vermont -- did not stray too far from what one might expect. Still, Vermont is one of those states where the 2020 polling relative to where the candidates ended up in 2016 is a tad askew. While Trump hovers near where he was in Vermont -- lagging less than a point behind his 2016 pace -- Biden is more than nine points out in front of Clinton from four years ago.
Virginia
(Biden 51, Trump 39 via Virginia Commonwealth)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.84]
Biden 53, Trump 39 in September poll
Biden 53, Trump 39 in September poll
In the Old Dominion, Biden lost a couple of points in the VCU poll since its last survey in September. Both candidates fall a couple of points shy of their FHQ average shares of support in this latest update, but the margin is right on target. That further cements Virginia as something other than the battleground it has been in recent cycles.
Citizen Data (October battleground polls -- initial wave of releases):
Ohio: Trump 44, Biden 43
Texas: Biden 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Biden 48, Trump 44
Florida: Biden 50, Trump 45
Pennsylvania: Biden 44, Trump 39
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 44
Michigan: Biden 50, Trump 41
This strange set of polls from Citizen Data was made all the more strange by the correction it had to make to a Texas poll that initially (and mistakenly) indicated that Biden was ahead by ten points. A four point lead for the vice president in the Lone Star state is already off to the extreme Biden end of of the range in Texas polling. If that was not enough, the order of states in this wave is not at all consistent with the established order at FHQ. North Carolina being to the Biden side of both Florida and Pennsylvania stands out, but then again the undecideds/others-inflated totals in that survey of the Keystone state do as well.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
| AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| NJ-14
(176)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(122)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| OR-7
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
| SD-3
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
| MT-3 NE CD1-1
(103)
| AL-9
(38)
|
NY-29
(60)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
| KS-6
(99)
|
ID-4
(29)
|
CA-55
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
| NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
| IA-6
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
| OH-18
(181)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
On the weight of two new polls -- especially that ARG poll -- New Hampshire shifts off the Watch List. It is now outside of a point of moving into the Lean Biden category and is a more comfortable Strong Biden state.
Similarly, a wide margin in the latest New Jersey poll pushed the Garden state past Oregon in the order and one cell away from the partisan line. New Jersey is a safe Strong Biden state as well.
But again, this was another day of subtle changes here at FHQ and not the sort of big changes that the president needs at this late date. The electoral vote tally remains at Biden, 351-187 despite the changes further out in the order on the Spectrum and on the Watch List.
5 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 29 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Kansas
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
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