The Electoral College Map (8/3/16)

Latest Update

New State Polls (8/3/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	OH Predictive Insights	8/1	+/- 3.1%	996 likely voters	45	42	8	+3	+0.21
North Carolina	Survey USA/Civitas	7/31-8/2	+/- 5.0%	400 likely voters	42	46	7	+4	+1.87
Tennessee	icitizen	7/25-7/27	+/- -.-%	531 registered voters	29	46	16	+17	+13.97

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:

Changes (August 3)
State	Before	After
Arizona	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Clinton
Tennessee	Lean Trump	Strong Trump

The Grand Canyon state's position along the partisan line has been a constant throughout much of the summer. That is no different after the addition of yet another survey from OH Predictive Insights. The firm has favored Clinton in its polling of Arizona during 2016 and another slight edge for Clinton in the latest survey is enough push the state over the line into Clinton territory. That alters the electoral count overall, but does not change the fact that Arizona is still on the Watch List, right on the partisan line.

North Carolina:

In the Tar Heel state, the latest from Civitas continues to favor Trump as the last pre-convention poll did. The change this month is that both candidates added to their support in the intervening month. Still, the bulk of polling in the state slightly favors Clinton, though this survey cuts some into what had been a more than two point edge for the former secretary of state in North Carolina. At this point, however, North Carolina remains on the Clinton side of both Ohio and now Arizona on the Electoral College Spectrum below. As a result, it is more likely that Trump finds some inroads in those states before North Carolina. 

Tennessee:

There has been one lonely poll out the Volunteer state in 2016, and it pointed toward a Trump advantage, though one not as strong as past Republican nominees. Of course, that was way back in May during primary season. The internet poll from citizen shows a wider Trump margin in Tennessee, but one still running slightly behind where Romney was in 2012. It helps that Clinton is -- in this poll at least -- underperforming Obama 2012 there. Tennessee shifts into the Strong Trump category and slides off the Watch List below.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	VA-133 (269 | 282)	UT-6 (158)	LA-8 (55)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	IA-63 (275 | 269)	AK-3 (152)	SD-3 (47)
RI-4 (21)	WI-10 (188)	NH-4 (279 | 263)	MO-10 (149)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (193)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	IN-11 (139)	ID-4 (41)
VT-3 (35)	OR-7 (200)	NC-15 (323 | 230)	TX-38 (128)	NE-5 (37)
CA-55 (90)	CT-7 (207)	OH-18 (341 | 215)	KS-6 (90)	AL-9 (32)
NY-29 (119)	ME-4 (211)	AZ-11 (352 | 197)	SC-9 (84)	KY-8 (23)
IL-20 (139)	CO-9 (220)	NV-6 (186)	AR-6 (75)	OK-7 (15)
MN-10 (149)	MI-16 (236)	GA-16 (180)	MT-3 (69)	WV-5 (8)
WA-12 (161)	PA-20 (256)	MS-6 (164)	TN-11 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arizona	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
Filling Nomination Vacancies That Don't Exist

The Electoral College Map (8/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)

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Filling Nomination Vacancies That Don't Exist

As the echo from last week's Democratic National Convention faded over the weekend, it gave way to a flurry of early week comments and reactions from and about Republican nominee, Donald Trump. That, in turn, has yielded a renewed discussion about a general election campaign without the New York businessman. However, whereas before the convention -- before the Republican Party nominated Trump in Cleveland -- that discussion focused on feeble efforts to unbind the delegates and throw the convention into chaos, the post-convention scenarios are perhaps even more far-fetched.

And all of it is centered on Rule 9 of the Rules of the Republican Party:

For the sake of clarity, let FHQ state this: Rule 9 is about filling vacancies not creating them. Those who have skipped over the title of the rule and jumped right to "death, declination, or otherwise" have missed the point of the rule. In doing that, most have put entirely too much emphasis on that "otherwise" condition for causing a vacancy.

But again, the intent of the rule is to fill any vacancies in the event that a nominee dies, declines the nomination or falls somewhere in between (neither dead nor able to decline the nomination). That is the intent of "otherwise". It fills in that gap between those two bookends.

So, there is no vacancy in either spot on the Republican ticket at this time in early August and there will not be unless one of those conditions above is met. Trump dropping out -- a declination -- would seem to be the most probable, though the odds of that are long.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/29/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (8/2/16)

Latest Update

New State Polls (8/2/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Georgia	Landmark/WSB TV	7/31	+/- 4.0%	787 likely voters	45.7	45.9	3.0	+0.2	+1.88
Georgia	Survey USA/WXIA	7/29-7/31	+/- 4.0%	628 likely voters	42	46	5	+4	--
Oklahoma	Sooner Poll	7/20-7/25	+/- 4.91%	398 likely voters	29	53	11	+24	+24

Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
Most will zero in on the tied Landmark poll of the Peach state, but when considered alongside the latest Survey USA poll in Georgia, one gets a picture that on par with the state of affairs in the state at the moment. In other words, split the difference between these two polls and one gets the same Trump +2 picture that was already where the FHQ average was. The addition of these polls shaves a few one-hundredths off the average, but Georgia remains a close state. However, it is one that is still less a need than a want for Clinton. Arizona and Nevada are clearer targets (see Spectrum below). All three are needs for Trump in any legitimate path to 270.


Oklahoma:
Out in the Sooner state, well, the one thing that can be taken from this is that there is now some data in from an unpolled, typically ruby red state. That has been lacking when compared to the other five categories FHQ uses. Not surprisingly, the Sooner Poll shows Trump well ahead of Clinton in Oklahoma. Yet, Oklahoma was a state where Romney won in November by 2:1. Trump is off that pace in the heart of summer, but is in a comparable position to where Romney was at a similar time (in the same poll) in 2012. Sure, Trump is lagging, but not by much. Needless to say, Oklahoma is not showing signs of being dramatically closer (as neighboring Kansas has).

--
Georgia keeps its position on the Spectrum below while Oklahoma and West Virginia flip flop spots on the bottom right at the far Republican end of the figure. Neither is on the Watch List. The decay function, if one wants to call it that in this instance, has the average margin in Arizona slightly growing -- in favor of Trump -- over time. It has nudged past Nevada leaving the Silver state as the closest Trump-leaning toss up state. Both Arizona and Nevada remain on the Watch List within a fraction of a point of shifting into Toss Up Clinton territory. Unlike all of the Clinton toss ups, Arizona and Nevada -- on the Trump side of the victory line -- are the only toss ups on the Watch List. In other words, they are the closest to switching sides and altering the current electoral vote tallies.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	VA-133 (269 | 282)	UT-6 (158)	LA-8 (55)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	IA-63 (275 | 269)	AK-3 (152)	SD-3 (47)
RI-4 (21)	WI-10 (188)	NH-4 (279 | 263)	MO-10 (149)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (193)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	IN-11 (139)	ID-4 (41)
VT-3 (35)	OR-7 (200)	NC-15 (323 | 230)	TX-38 (128)	NE-5 (37)
CA-55 (90)	CT-7 (207)	OH-18 (341 | 215)	KS-6 (90)	AL-9 (32)
NY-29 (119)	ME-4 (211)	NV-6 (197)	TN-11 (84)	KY-8 (23)
IL-20 (139)	CO-9 (220)	AZ-11 (191)	SC-9 (73)	OK-7 (15)
MN-10 (149)	MI-16 (236)	GA-16 (180)	AR-6 (64)	WV-5 (8)
WA-12 (161)	PA-20 (256)	MS-6 (164)	MT-3 (58)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arizona	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Tennessee	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/28/16)

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The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)

Latest Update

New State Polls (8/1/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Nevada	Rasmussen/KTNV	7/29-7/31	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	41	40	5	+1	+0.52
Pennsylvania	Public Policy Polling	7/29-7/31	+/- 2.5%	1505 likely voters	45	42	8	+3	+4.71
Virginia	RABA Research	7/26-7/27	+/- 3.8%	655 likely voters	42	46	5	+4	+3.03

Polling Quick Hits:
Nevada:
Since Rasmussen was in the field in Nevada a week ago -- during the weekend between the conventions -- there has been an in-house shift toward Clinton in the poll. A week later the Rasmussen poll has witnessed a slight move toward Clinton. Rather than being five points down, the former secretary of state has pulled into the lead, albeit by the narrowest of margins. The bulk of the polling out of the Silver state -- and it should be said that it has been limited in 2016 -- has favored Trump. But the jury is still out. Nevada is historically difficult to survey and the best of the Nevada pollsters have yet to weigh in on this one.


Pennsylvania:
Back east in another battleground, PPP finds pretty much what it found at the end of June; before the conventions and before the Comey/FBI story. That is to say with Clinton up by a small margin. Clinton's four point edge in June is down to three now. However, the earlier poll was only a head-to-head with Trump whereas the post-conventions survey includes Johnson and Stein.  [The head-to-head in the latest poll finds the same four point advantage with both candidates having gained three points each.] As many have noted, the most probable paths to 270 for Trump include the Keystone state. The problem to this point is that the New York businessman has been on the wrong side of the vast majority of survey work there to this point. The fact remains that if Trump does not push through in Florida and Ohio first, then he is unlikely to get to Pennsylvania in the order (see Spectrum) for it to matter. Pennsylvania is still positioned on the edge of the Toss Up Clinton category within a fraction of moving into the Lean Clinton area.


Virginia:
Let's start with the obvious: Trump has not led a poll in Virginia in 2016. The latest poll of the commonwealth from RABA Research, then, is either a sign of things to come or an outlier. FHQ would lean toward the latter. Sure, this one is not consistent with other polling in the Old Dominion, but it is also markedly different from the national poll the firm released over the post-Democratic convention weekend. There is something that of a mismatch when a battleground state like Virginia is Trump +4 and nationally the picture is Clinton +15. Now, those polls were in the field at slightly different times -- the Virginia poll during the Democratic convention and the national poll after it -- but that is a wide gap between the two that would, in addition to the other polling -- point toward both being outliers.

What the polls does do in Virginia is reduce the Clinton lead in the FHQ averages and remove the state from the Watch List below. Despite both of those facts, Virginia does not change its position on the Spectrum below. It still occupies half of the current tipping point states position.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	VA-133 (269 | 282)	UT-6 (158)	LA-8 (55)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	IA-63 (275 | 269)	AK-3 (152)	SD-3 (47)
RI-4 (21)	WI-10 (188)	NH-4 (279 | 263)	MO-10 (149)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (193)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	IN-11 (139)	ID-4 (41)
VT-3 (35)	OR-7 (200)	NC-15 (323 | 230)	TX-38 (128)	NE-5 (37)
CA-55 (90)	CT-7 (207)	OH-18 (341 | 215)	KS-6 (90)	AL-9 (32)
NY-29 (119)	ME-4 (211)	AZ-11 (197)	TN-11 (84)	KY-8 (23)
IL-20 (139)	CO-9 (220)	NV-6 (186)	SC-9 (73)	WV-5 (15)
MN-10 (149)	MI-16 (236)	GA-16 (180)	AR-6 (64)	OK-7 (10)
WA-12 (161)	PA-20 (256)	MS-6 (164)	MT-3 (58)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arizona	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Tennessee	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/28/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/27/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.