New State Polls (8/10/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
|
8/3-8/7
|
+/- 3.1%
|
899 likely voters
|
35
|
35
|
12
|
+0
|
+2.48
| |
Kansas
|
8/3-8/7
|
+/- 4.2%
|
566 likely voters
|
39
|
44
|
7
|
+5
|
+7.38
| |
Ohio
|
8/3-8/7
|
+/- 3.1%
|
889 likely voters
|
39
|
35
|
10
|
+4
|
+2.02
| |
Pennsylvania
|
8/3-8/7
|
+/- 3.1%
|
834 likely voters
|
45
|
36
|
7
|
+9
|
+6.16
| |
Wisconsin
|
8/4-8/7
|
+/- 4.6%
|
683 likely voters
|
47
|
34
|
6
|
+13
|
+9.56
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
A couple of battleground state polls, a handful of leaners and another set of reinforcing polls.
Iowa:
The Hawkeye state continues to be underpolled, but other than one outlier that bumped the FHQ average up, Iowa has resided closer to the partisan line and on the Republican side of states like Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia in 2016 than it did four years ago. It has been blue throughout but more competitive. Iowa, then, is more like a state such as Nevada, where Clinton's support has been lower relative to Obama's in 2012. That is borne out in this latest poll from Marist that shows a tie in a multiway race. Still, Iowa is nearly two and a half points on the Clinton side of the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum.
Kansas:
Just when one thought Kansas was reverting to a more entrenched Republican state, another poll emerges showing a narrow Trump lead in the state. In fact, since Survey USA was last in the field in the Sunflower state just before the conventions, Trump's advantage has contracted, swinging six points toward Clinton. The New York businessman continues to lead, but if he is ahead by only five in Kansas -- and assuming the states are lined up in the order they are below -- then Clinton blue is more likely to stretch further in to that middle column and claim another few states.
Yes, statewide polling in Kansas in 2014 -- in both the gubernatorial and senate races -- was competitive before breaking Republican in the end. This may, then, just be a Kansas thing. However, it could also signal that additional polling is warranted in some of the other traditionally ruby red states.
Ohio:
In the 12 surveys conducted in the Buckeye state since the end of primary season in early June, Clinton has led in eight and been tied in another one. The new Marist poll of Ohio is one of those eight and buttresses the notion that Clinton leads somewhere in the range of tied to five points ahead. The FHQ graduated weighted average and this poll sit right in that area.
Additionally, it should be said that this poll was enough to push Ohio back on the Democratic side of North Carolina in the alignment of states; something that has tended to be true in the previous cycles of most of the recent past.
Pennsylvania:
Like Ohio, the Marist poll of the Keystone state does nothing to shake the premise that Clinton's lead has expanded in the state since the conventions. This is another poll with the former secretary of state up by close to ten points that further solidifies Pennsylvania's position within the Lean Clinton category. And it is enough to push the commonwealth off the Watch List. No longer is Pennsylvania within range of shifting back into the toss up area. Further data may change that outlook, but for the time being, Pennsylvania -- a valuable 20 electoral votes in the path to 270 -- seems even more out of reach for Trump and the Republicans.
Wisconsin:
As was the case in Kansas, the new Marquette poll of Wisconsin witnessed a middle range (seven point) shift toward Clinton since its pre-conventions poll. Unlike Kansas, however, polling already had the Badger state firmly within the Clinton group of states. But that seven point shift since the last Marquette survey helps to push the average back to within range of crossing over into the Strong Clinton category. The other states in the Lean Clinton category are all comfortably within its bounds, but Wisconsin now replaces Pennsylvania as the only lean state on the Clinton side of the partisan line close to switching. Only, Wisconsin is not anywhere close to becoming a toss up as Pennsylvania had been. Additional data may change that, but for now, Wisconsin is not looking at all like a swing state despite often being lumped in with that roughly Rust Belt group of states the Trump campaign is said to be targeting.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MO-10
(158)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(148)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279 | 265) |
UT-6
(145)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(193)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259) |
KS-6
(139)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
MI-16
(209)
|
OH-18
(326 | 230)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(216)
|
NC-15
(341 | 212)
|
TX-38
(122)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
CT-7
(223)
|
NV-6
(197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
ME-4
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
MN-10
(149)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/9/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/8/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/7/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/9/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/8/16)
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