Friday, August 12, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/12/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.0%
899 registered voters
41
29
8
+12
+7.21
Florida
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
862 registered voters
41
36
9
+5
+2.35
North Carolina
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
921 registered voters
45
36
7
+9
+2.53
Texas
8/8-8/9
+/- 3.1%
1018 likely voters
35
46
9
+11
+8.94
Virginia
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
897 registered voters
43
31
9
+12
+5.25


Polling Quick Hits:
The end of the work week brought with it a handful of rosy battleground state polls for Hillary Clinton from NBC/Marist and an additional poll from deep in the heart of Texas.


Colorado:
The Centennial state is likely still underpolled, but on the strength of a double digit margin from the first post-convention survey in the state, Clinton's advantage has pushed well into the Lean category. Colorado does not budge from its position on the Electoral College Spectrum, but is, nonetheless, further insulated from Trump at this point in time. Apparently, Priorities USA -- the super PAC aligned with Clinton -- is getting the same signal.


Florida:
There have been a number of polls released from the Sunshine state since the conventions wrapped up two weeks ago. Two of them have indicated a nearly tied race while the remaining two have had Clinton up five points. The new Marist poll is among the latter group and is actually an exact replica of the Marist pre-convention poll for the two major party candidates. But that is the range in Florida: tied to Clinton +5. And it is right in line with the FHQ weighted average of all 2016 polls in the state. Florida is consistently tilted in Clinton's direction from this vantage point in mid-August.


North Carolina:
The Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum below is tightly clustered. However, the Clinton +9 poll of the Tar Heel state from Marist was enough to bump North Carolina from a spot on the partisan line separating Clinton and Trump states to one on the other end of the quartet. Instead of being the closest of the four, North Carolina now features the widest margin of those states. But make no mistake: while it traded ends within that subgrouping of states, North Carolina is still very much a part of a cluster of states that is separated from the next tier.

It should also be noted that Marist has been on the upper end of the range of polling results in North Carolina. This latest poll continues in that trend. It increases the margin, but it remains in the toss up area.


Texas:
The new Dixie Strategies poll in Texas is about par for the course in 2016 Lone Star state polling. Trump is ahead, but lags behind Romney's performance there in 2012. Yes, Texas is a little closer than it otherwise would be in a different cycle, but does not appear likely to get caught up in any Clinton surge (or Trump decline). At this point Texas is to Trump as Wisconsin or Maine is to Clinton. The only difference is that in mid-August the trendline is moving toward Texas while Wisconsin and Maine turn a deeper shade of blue.


Virginia:
Changes (August 12)
StateBeforeAfter
VirginiaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
Though it, too, is on the upper end of the polling range in Virginia, the new poll from Marist nudges the Old Dominion above the Toss Up/Lean line. Like the group of blue toss up states mentioned above, Virginia is part of another cluster -- a lean cluster -- with Pennsylvania and Colorado. Those are all states that Trump would like to have to ease if not find a path to 270. All seem out of reach at this time, however.

Note that Virginia is a deeper shade of blue than New Hampshire in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Both serve as the tipping point in any candidate clinching the White House. And though New Hampshire is on the Watch List -- on the cusp of switching into Lean Clinton territory -- it is now all alone on the upper edge of the category. The significance of Virginia moving into the lean area is that on just the Strong and Lean states, Clinton would have 269 electoral votes. She would need just one additional state to crest above 270. And New Hampshire is positioned to be that state.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
NC-15
(288 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
FL-29
(317 | 250)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
IA-6
(323 | 221)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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Thursday, August 11, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/11/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/11/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Alabama
6/19
+/- 2.0%
4100 adults
33
57
--
+24
+24.00
Florida
8/10
+/- 4.0%
622 likely voters
45
44
3
+1
+2.19
Georgia
8/4-8/8
+/- 2.5%
1604 likely voters
39
43
--
+4
+0.60
Idaho
5/18-6/4
+/- 3.99%
603 adults
32
49
18
+17
+19.36
Iowa
8/8-8/10
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
36
37
18
+1
+2.04
Maine
8/4-8/8
+/- 2.2%
2046 likely voters
43
33
--
+10
+8.69
New Hampshire
8/7-8/8
+/- 3.4%
820 registered voters
41
31
13
+10
+4.60
New York
8/4-8/8
+/- 2.4%
1717 likely voters
48
34
--
+14
+19.17
South Carolina
8/9-8/10
+/- 2.7%
1290 likely voters
39
41
13
+2
+2.00


Polling Quick Hits:
There was a flood of new polling from old and new battleground states alike and a couple of backlogged polls freshly added to the FHQ dataset. Here is a quick tour.


Alabama:
One of the older polls comes out Dixie. There is quite a bit of support not going to the two major party candidates, but Trump led Clinton by 24 points. Both are underperforming where their 2012 predecessors were in the Yellowhammer state, but the margin is in line with the spread in November 2012. Even if there is a blue wave that surges into the most Republican columns below on the Electoral College Spectrum, Alabama figures to be one the hold outs on the Republican side of the partisan line.


Florida:
One has to wonder if the volatility in the polling in Florida is dying down some after the narrow margins of the last two days of survey releases. That said, Quinnipiac -- yesterday's entrant -- has leaned more Republican this cycle. It could be that there is a tighter new normal in the Sunshine state, or that could be a function of the firms that have released polls in the last two days. It will just take some more data to answer that question.


Georgia:
In the Peach state, there is yet more evidence that Georgia is more competitive in 2016. The head-to-head in the new Gravis poll has Trump clinging to a one point advantage, but the multicandidate results show a larger gap with most of the support for the third party candidates being siphoned off of Clinton's. Either way one goes -- and FHQ uses the multicandidate numbers in these situations -- Trump is just a hair ahead of Clinton in the FHQ averages. Georgia is essentially tied along with Arizona and Nevada.


Idaho:
Dan Jones and Associates polled Idaho just before the end of primary season. As was the story in the firm's July survey of the Gem state, Trump was ahead by a comfortable margin, but running behind recent GOP nominees in the state. Like Alabama above, Idaho will likely be red in the fall, insulated from any Clinton advances. It is only August, but these are data from before the conventions.


Iowa:
Like Florida, another day brought another close poll in the Hawkeye state. The slight Trump edge nudged the FHQ average down enough that Florida and Iowa switched places with each other on the Spectrum, and both are now fairly tightly knotted in a group with Ohio in terms of their average margins. What is perhaps more interesting about Iowa is that no candidate has garnered anything more than 44% in any poll this year (with the exception of the very first survey back in early January). And now both candidates in the last two days of polling have dipped into the 30s. Iowa is close, but there is a deep reservoir of undecideds there. That should taper off as election day approaches, but could swing Iowa depending on how that segment breaks.


Maine:
There has not been a lot of survey work done in Maine yet. Thus far in 2016, there has been but one poll, and it showed Clinton ahead, though in the lean range. Another poll -- this one from Gravis -- has the race in the Pine Tree state in a similar position, but with a slightly larger Clinton lead. That was enough to bump the FHQ average in the state up, but keep Maine in the Lean Clinton category.


New Hampshire:
If Florida and Iowa have had a series of closer post-convention polls, New Hampshire can be said to be moving in the opposite direction. Rather than a second close poll, there is now a second double digit lead for Clinton in the Granite state in the wake of the two national conventions. One the weight of those polls, New Hampshire enters the Watch List -- on the verge of shifting into a Lean Clinton state -- and pushes past Virginia on the Electoral College Spectrum, breaking the electoral college "tie" scenario that occurs when Pennsylvania and Virginia are on the Democratic side of New Hampshire. [Tie is in quotation marks above because the partisan line pushes well beyond where those three states are in the alignment of states. It is not at all a likely scenario at this point in time.]


New York:
There are a number of ways one could frame the current picture in New York: home state of both candidates, tighter than usual margin, etc. But it is pretty clear that Trump is hovering right around where Romney did in the Empire state in 2012. That makes New York a story of Clinton underperforming Obama in the state. Yet, even given that trend, the margin there is comfortably blue. It would be more noteworthy if Trump was actually running ahead of Romney's pace there. He isn't and that is likely to keep New York in the Democratic column.


South Carolina:
Changes (August 11)
StateBeforeAfter
South CarolinaLean TrumpToss Up Trump
Finally, the first presidential polling data of 2016 emerged from South Carolina. It might be easy to get carried away with the small two point advantage Trump has in the Palmetto state. And it is a surprising number at first glance. However, South Carolina ended up a couple of percentage points redder than Georgia in 2012. And if Georgia is tied, then South Carolina +2 to Trump is right in line with what would be a uniform shift of states. And truth be told, that is not that far off. South Carolina is still in range of its positioning on the Spectrum in November 2012. It is simply closer there in 2016 if much stock can be put in just one survey. Of course, this one does harken back to the 2008 Zogby poll of South Carolina; the one where Obama was narrowly ahead.

South Carolina shifts from Lean to Toss Up Trump with the addition of this poll, and jumps to a spot next to Georgia on the Spectrum after the Peach state switched places with Arizona.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
NH-4
(260)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
VA-133
(273 | 278)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
IA-6
(308 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
OH-18
(326 | 230)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
NC-15
(341 | 212)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





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Wednesday, August 10, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/10/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/10/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Iowa
8/3-8/7
+/- 3.1%
899 likely voters
35
35
12
+0
+2.48
Kansas
8/3-8/7
+/- 4.2%
566 likely voters
39
44
7
+5
+7.38
Ohio
8/3-8/7
+/- 3.1%
889 likely voters
39
35
10
+4
+2.02
Pennsylvania
8/3-8/7
+/- 3.1%
834 likely voters
45
36
7
+9
+6.16
Wisconsin
8/4-8/7
+/- 4.6%
683 likely voters
47
34
6
+13
+9.56


Polling Quick Hits:
A couple of battleground state polls, a handful of leaners and another set of reinforcing polls.

Iowa:
The Hawkeye state continues to be underpolled, but other than one outlier that bumped the FHQ average up, Iowa has resided closer to the partisan line and on the Republican side of states like Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia in 2016 than it did four years ago. It has been blue throughout but more competitive. Iowa, then, is more like a state such as Nevada, where Clinton's support has been lower relative to Obama's in 2012. That is borne out in this latest poll from Marist that shows a tie in a multiway race. Still, Iowa is nearly two and a half points on the Clinton side of the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum.


Kansas:
Just when one thought Kansas was reverting to a more entrenched Republican state, another poll emerges showing a narrow Trump lead in the state. In fact, since Survey USA was last in the field in the Sunflower state just before the conventions, Trump's advantage has contracted, swinging six points toward Clinton. The New York businessman continues to lead, but if he is ahead by only five in Kansas -- and assuming the states are lined up in the order they are below -- then Clinton blue is more likely to stretch further in to that middle column and claim another few states.

Yes, statewide polling in Kansas in 2014 -- in both the gubernatorial and senate races -- was competitive before breaking Republican in the end. This may, then, just be a Kansas thing. However, it could also signal that additional polling is warranted in some of the other traditionally ruby red states.


Ohio:
In the 12 surveys conducted in the Buckeye state since the end of primary season in early June, Clinton has led in eight and been tied in another one. The new Marist poll of Ohio is one of those eight and buttresses the notion that Clinton leads somewhere in the range of tied to five points ahead. The FHQ graduated weighted average and this poll sit right in that area.

Additionally, it should be said that this poll was enough to push Ohio back on the Democratic side of North Carolina in the alignment of states; something that has tended to be true in the previous cycles of most of the recent past.


Pennsylvania:
Like Ohio, the Marist poll of the Keystone state does nothing to shake the premise that Clinton's lead has expanded in the state since the conventions. This is another poll with the former secretary of state up by close to ten points that further solidifies Pennsylvania's position within the Lean Clinton category. And it is enough to push the commonwealth off the Watch List. No longer is Pennsylvania within range of shifting back into the toss up area. Further data may change that outlook, but for the time being, Pennsylvania -- a valuable 20 electoral votes in the path to 270 -- seems even more out of reach for Trump and the Republicans.


Wisconsin:
As was the case in Kansas, the new Marquette poll of Wisconsin witnessed a middle range (seven point) shift toward Clinton since its pre-conventions poll. Unlike Kansas, however, polling already had the Badger state firmly within the Clinton group of states. But that seven point shift since the last Marquette survey helps to push the average back to within range of crossing over into the Strong Clinton category. The other states in the Lean Clinton category are all comfortably within its bounds, but Wisconsin now replaces Pennsylvania as the only lean state on the Clinton side of the partisan line close to switching. Only, Wisconsin is not anywhere close to becoming a toss up as Pennsylvania had been. Additional data may change that, but for now, Wisconsin is not looking at all like a swing state despite often being lumped in with that roughly Rust Belt group of states the Trump campaign is said to be targeting.




NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MO-10
(158)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(148)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
IA-6
(279 | 265)
UT-6
(145)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(139)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
MI-16
(209)
OH-18
(326 | 230)
IN-11
(133)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(216)
NC-15
(341 | 212)
TX-38
(122)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
CT-7
(223)
NV-6
(197)
SC-9
(84)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
ME-4
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
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