Tuesday, August 16, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/16/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/16/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/12-8/15
+/- 4.9%
402 likely voters
48
39
5
+9
+2.84
Texas
8/12-8/14
+/- 3.2%
944 likely voters
38
44
10
+6
+8.07
Virginia
8/11-8/14
+/- 4.0%
707 likely voters
46
39
2
+7
+5.44


Polling Quick Hits:
The few polls that emerged on Tuesday offered a reinforcement of the prevailing averages in a couple of states and a departure of sorts in another.

Florida:
The departure comes out of the Sunshine state. Monmouth's first survey of Florida breaks from the post-convention pattern/range that has been established. As mentioned recently, the clear picture in Florida following Philly has been that the race there is anywhere from tied to about Clinton +5. Monmouth, however, finds the former secretary of state up nine. And since nomination season concluded in early June, only Democratic-leaning GQR had Clinton ahead by any comparable margin. In the context of the other summer polling, that one was an outlier, and so might this one from Monmouth be. By the same token, this could be evidence that Florida is breaking toward Clinton. Could be. Time will tell.

The candidates' support in that poll was enough to bump the average up in Florida, pushing it past North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum. Still, Florida continues to be a toss up state in FHQ's categorization.


Texas:
In the Lone Star state, the picture is of a race that tilts toward Trump as one might expect, but again, not to the degree that one would imagine Texas leaning at the presidential level. Though the polling is still relatively scant, Texas occupies a space just under the Strong/Lean line on the Republican side of the Electoral College Spectrum below. While Clinton continues to be in range (in the polls) of the vote share President Obama got in Texas in 2012, Trump also lags well behind the where Romney was in the state just four short years ago. In this poll alone, Trump is below 50 percent and about 13 points behind the pace Romney set in 2012. This is consistent with the drift toward Clinton in the electoral college in the wake of convention season. If Georgia is around tied and South Carolina is a few points toward Trump behind that, then Texas is another few points behind South Carolina in the order of states.


Virginia:
Another day and another poll showing Virginia comfortably within the lean area on the Democratic end of the Spectrum. The latest from the Washington Post has Clinton up seven points in the multi-candidate race. That is on the lower side of the range of post-convention polling in the Old Dominion, but pushes the FHQ graduated weighted average there up another notch. If Virginia continues on this trajectory, it will join Pennsylvania off the Watch List as a state well within the Lean category here at FHQ. But that will require more data.


Both the map and Watch List remain unchanged today. Only Florida shifts on the Spectrum.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
IA-6
(323 | 221)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , ,
Share |

Monday, August 15, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/15/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/15/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
New York
8/7-8/10
+/- 4.3%
717 registered voters
50
25
6
+25
+19.85
Washington
8/9-8/13
+/- 4.5%
500 registered voters
43
24
16
+19
+16.04


Polling Quick Hits:
Monday brought a couple of polls from two reliably blue states and not too many surprises.

New York:
The latest Siena survey continues to show Clinton well ahead of Trump in the state each calls home. At this point -- through the lens of the Siena polling -- the home state advantages seem to be canceling each other out and the contest in the Empire state looks normal. Clinton is up by a similar margin to the one Obama led Romney in 2012. However, both Clinton and Trump are underperforming their 2012 predecessors in New York. That means a little less in a state in which Clinton doubles up Trump, cresting around 50%.


Washington:
In the Evergreen state, the picture is a bit fuller with the addition of the first Elway poll (of the presidential race) of the 2016 cycle. Clinton is ahead by a margin that could be considered typical in the Obama era, but again, like New York, both major party candidates are underperforming the 2012 nominees. One could attempt to attribute that to the early timeframe, but that is not really the case. At a similar time in 2012, Obama led Romney by similar mid-to-upper teens margins, and both enjoyed slightly higher shares of support in the Washington polls.


New York retains its position on the Electoral College Spectrum below while Washington ticks up a slot, switching places with Minnesota. Both remain comfortably within the Strong Clinton category. And it should be noted that though Clinton has expanded her lead nationally and in some of the battleground states, that sort of expansion of polling support has not necessarily extended to the bluest of states. Things appear normal in those states.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
NC-15
(288 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
FL-29
(317 | 250)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
IA-6
(323 | 221)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , ,
Share |

Sunday, August 14, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/14/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/14/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/10-8/12
+/- 3.6%
1194 likely voters
45
40
4
+5
+2.50
Georgia
8/10-8/12
+/- 4.3%
988 likely voters
41
45
5
+4
+0.94
New Hampshire
8/10-8/12
+/- 4.3%
990 likely voters
45
36
7
+9
+5.04


Polling Quick Hits:
For the second consecutive Sunday, YouGov/CBS released a trio of battleground state polls. Instead of Arizona, Nevada and Virginia, this week offers newly competitive Georgia along with the more traditionally close Florida and New Hampshire. The results across the two weeks are largely consistent. New Hampshire, like Virginia, has in the aftermath of the conventions witnessed polls showing a mostly double digit lead for Clinton. On the other end of the spectrum, Georgia, as with Arizona and Nevada a week ago, can be found in a range from nearly tied to a giving a maximum toss up level advantage (<5 points) to Trump. Finally, Florida falls somewhere between those two bookends: a slight but consistent tilt toward Clinton. All jibe well with where FHQ currently has the averages in these states, and the order is consistent with the Electoral College Spectrum below.


Florida:
There is not much to say about Florida at this point in time. Of the five publicly available post-convention polls, everything has fit within a tight tied to Clinton +5 range. This YouGov survey sits atop the upper end of the range though it should be noted that that five point edge is the modal post-convention result.

FHQ mentioned on Friday that Florida is part of a tier of blue states with Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio clustered together and right up against the partisan line. There is some very slight separation between the Florida/North Carolina pair and Iowa and Ohio. That may or may not prove significant in the long term. All four are within about half a point of each other. Again, the separation is very slight.


Georgia:
In some respects, neighboring Georgia is a mirror image of Florida to the Trump side of the partisan line. Two-thirds of the post-convention polling in the Peach state has pointed toward a Trump lead there, and the range in those surveys -- again like Florida -- has run anywhere from tied to Trump +5. The difference is that there were a couple of Clinton leaning polls of Georgia in the period immediately following the conclusion of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. At least one of those -- the Clinton +7 from JMC Analytics -- appears to be an outlier. Both, however, have kept Georgia's average (given the FHQ methodology) on the lower end of the range cited above: close but tipped in Trump's direction at this time.


New Hampshire:
Changes (August 14)
StateBeforeAfter
New HampshireToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
As was recently discussed in the context of a new poll in Virginia on Friday, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia form a core of states that have hovered around the line between the Toss Up and Lean categories here at FHQ. To those point, however, only New Hampshire had not pushed over to the Lean side of that divide. Had not. With the addition of yet another post-convention poll showing the margin in the Granite state close to ten points -- around the Strong/Lean line in other words -- the FHQ average for New Hampshire climbs above the five point line and into the Lean area.

Significantly, New Hampshire joining that group of states nudges Clinton over the 270 electoral vote mark on the strength of just the Strong and Lean categories of states. Even excluding the blue toss up states, then, Clinton is above where she would need to be to claim the White House. Although 2012 was much less volatile in the polls and constantly showed a 332-206 Obama advantage in the FHQ electoral college projection, the president always (from July through November) needed at least some toss up states to push him over the 270 electoral vote mark. That may yet be true again in the future for Hillary Clinton, but it is not true right now.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
NC-15
(288 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
FL-29
(317 | 250)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
IA-6
(323 | 221)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , ,
Share |
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)