Friday, September 2, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)



New State Polls (9/2/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Iowa
8/31-9/1
+/- 3.9%
600 likely voters
39.1
44.2
8.0
+5.1
+1.13
Kansas
8/22-8/23
+/- 1.55%
3966 likely voters
37
44
9
+7
+7.30
Virginia
8/30-9/1
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
43.5
43.0
--
+0.5
+6.00


Polling Quick Hits:
Heading into a long Labor Day weekend, there were just a few newly released surveys. Emerson recently came off a summer hiatus and the landline only firm has offered a week's worth of polls that again are either slightly out of step with other recent polling or the beginning signs of a shift. If it is the former, then there is a noticeable Trump-leaning house effect at work. New surveys from both Iowa and Virginia today highlight this issue.


Iowa:
Anything in Iowa not showing a race stuck in a range from about Clinton +3 to Trump +3 has to this point in the  race for the White House been an outlier. The new Emerson poll finds Trump up five points and seemingly fits in that outlier category. But again, it is not far outside of the range; Clinton is on the low end of her Iowa range here and Trump on the upper end of his. That could be a move in Trump's direction or it could be the type of house effect mentioned above. Polling has picked up some in Iowa, but it is among a group of states where more polling would be desirable.

This poll lowered the Iowa average here at FHQ enough to push it past North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum below.


Kansas:
Nearby in Kansas, a new Remington survey provides yet more evidence that the race for the Sunflower state's six electoral votes is just closer than usual in 2016. Kansas is still very much a red state, but Trump continues to lag about 15 points behind where Romney was there in 2012. That closes the gap for Clinton, who is right around Obama 2012, but not enough to make Kansas anything other than a lighter shade of red.


Virginia:
For the second consecutive day a poll was released in Virginia indicating a much closer race than has been the case throughout August. FHQ does not want to explain away either that poll or the new Emerson poll in the Old Dominion. After all, a narrowing nationally would likely mean at least some narrowing in a tangentially competitive Virginia. But the Hampton poll yesterday had a higher of undecideds than has been the case overall. That was true of the last poll they conducted in Virginia as well. That could be not pushing/prompting leaners or something else. But how those leaners break between Clinton and Trump may increase or decrease the margin in the surveys. FHQ will not back track and dip back into the Emerson issues. But the methodology -- landline only -- may be driving what is being witnessed in that series of surveys.

The most onlookers can hope for is additional polling from other firms to aid in determining evidence   as to what the true answer is to what FHQ will call the Emerson question. Both that poll and the Hampton poll pulled the average in Virginia down to six points; just enough to put the state back on the Watch List



--
Compared to yesterday, the map again remains unchanged. However, the Watch List barely adds one state (Virginia). On the Electoral College Spectrum things held steady for the most part. Iowa switched spots with North Carolina, reversing their recent shift.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
ME-4
(182)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(187)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
WI-10
(197)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(204)
IA-6
(341 | 203)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
MI-16
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
WV-5
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
AL-9
(19)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
OK-7
(10)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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Thursday, September 1, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)



New State Polls (9/1/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
8/27
+/- 2.8%
1244 likely voters
40
44
--
+4
--
Arizona
8/26-8/28
+/- 3.4%
837 likely voters
43
46
11
+3
+1.50
Missouri
8/26-8/27
+/- 3.0%
1055 likely voters
41
47
11
+6
+4.04
New Hampshire
8/26-8/28
+/- 3.1%
977 likely voters
46
40
14
+6
+5.14
North Carolina
8/26-8/27
+/- 2.9%
1177 likely voters
45
44
12
+1
+1.75
Ohio
8/26-8/27
+/- 2.9%
1134 likely voters
46
42
12
+4
+2.30
Pennsylvania
8/26-8/27
+/- 2.8%
1194 likely voters
48
43
9
+5
--
Pennsylvania
8/25-8/29
+/- 4.6%
736 registered voters
41
38
13
+3
+5.84
Virginia
8/24-8/28
+/- 4.7%
801 likely voters
43
41
16
+2
+6.49
West Virginia
8/9-8/28
+/- 4.7%
386 likely voters
31
49
6
+18
+20.99
Wisconsin
8/26-8/27
+/- 3.0%
1054 likely voters
48
41
12
+7
+8.13


Polling Quick Hits:
September dawned with a flood of battleground surveys from Public Policy Polling and assorted other updates in a handful of other states.


Arizona:
The two additions from the Grand Canyon state look a lot like most of the polling -- those not from OH Predictive Insights -- there in the post-convention period throughout August. That is to say that both Gravis and PPP find Trump ahead in the two to four point range. On the weight of those two new surveys, the margin stretches out just enough in Arizona to pull it back off the Watch List. No longer is Arizona on the cusp of jumping over the partisan line into Clinton territory.


Missouri:
Over in fellow Trump toss up Missouri, the story is largely similar to one in Arizona. Most of the post-convention polling in the Show-Me state has had Trump out to a narrow lead in the two to four point range. This latest survey from PPP breaks from that trend, however. Over the last two polls of Missouri -- a couple of head-to-head surveys rather than multi-candidate ones -- the margin has doubled. That was enough to put Missouri back in range of the Toss Up/Lean line and thus back on the Watch List.


New Hampshire:
The first new poll of the Granite state in two weeks show a bit of a contraction of the margin in the state. Gone are the double digit advantages Clinton enjoyed in New Hampshire in the couple of weeks after convention season. In that void is a PPP survey with Clinton holding steady in the same basic mid- to upper 40s range she has been in in New Hampshire. The difference is that Trump's dip into the 30s has given way to the a position around 40 percent where he has often found himself in surveys nationally and in the more competitive states.


North Carolina:
Another day and another minimal margin poll out of North Carolina. There have been eight polls conducted in the Tar Heel state since convention season wrapped up on Philadelphia. Three-quarters of those polls have shown a race within two points. The new PPP survey is right in line with trend. As that Clinton +9 outlier from Marist loses weight and additional tight polls come online, the North Carolina margin here at FHQ continues to shrink. Clinton maintains the advantage, but it is becoming increasingly closer in North Carolina.


Ohio:
In Ohio, the consistency is similar to that seen in North Carolina. The difference, however, is that Clinton's lead in the Buckeye state is more comfortable. That is less clear in the averages here at FHQ, but in the post-convention polling, her edge has been in the four point range. The new PPP poll does not change that.


Pennsylvania:
Like Arizona, there were a couple of new polls out of Pennsylvania added to the FHQ dataset. Trump, perhaps, gets some good news in the multi-candidate survey from Franklin and Marshall -- the margin is down to just three -- but both candidates are around 40 percent. This may be evidence that Clinton is on the decline in the Keystone state, but it is also well under where Clinton has been in recent surveys. There is more out there to suggest -- as in the new PPP survey -- that Clinton is holding relatively steady in the mid-40s while Trump has bounced back from bottoming out during the first half of August. In any event, the margin is down in Pennsylvania and that has drawn the state back onto the Watch List, within a point of the Lean/Toss up line.


Virginia:
Outlier? The new Hampton poll certainly looks like it in light of the majority of post-convention polling in the Old Dominion showing the state potentially moving out of reach for Trump. But like a number of other states discussed in this latest wave of poll releases the closing of the gap is more about Trump pulling back to around 40 percent rather than Clinton entering a free fall. Her share in the poll is low but still on the lower end of her recent range.Virginia is still a Clinton lean at this point.


West Virginia:
A rare update from Repass in West Virginia is about what one would expect. Trump leads in a ruby red state -- and comfortably -- but is running a little more than ten points behind Romney in the Mountain state in 2012. Clinton, on the other hand, is in range of where Obama was four years ago. The end result is still the same: five electoral votes in the Republican nominee's column.


Wisconsin:
After a quiet month for polling in Wisconsin, there has been a flurry of survey activity the last two days. The new PPP survey echoes the two from a day ago. Though the point of comparison is one Marquette poll from right after the convention, the 13 point lead there has more than halved in each of the three late August polls just released. The Badger state remains a solid Clinton lean at this point, but the margin there is slowly shrinking.


--
The map again remains unchanged. However, the Watch List loses one state (Arizona) but adds two more (Missouri and Pennsylvania). On the Electoral College Spectrum things held steady for the most part. West Virginia shifts up a couple of spots but continues to be among the most Republican states.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
ME-4
(182)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(187)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
WI-10
(197)
IA-6
(326 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(204)
NC-15
(341 | 212)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
MI-16
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
WV-5
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
AL-9
(19)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
OK-7
(10)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)



New State Polls (8/31/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
New York
8/28-8/30
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
52.1
34.2
2.6
+17.9
+19.62
North Carolina
8/27-8/29
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
43.4
44.8
2
+1.4
+1.80
Wisconsin
8/25-8/28
+/- 5.0%
650 likely voters
41
38
7
+3
--
Wisconsin
8/27-8/30
+/- 4.9%
404 likely voters
43
38
8
+5
+8.26


Polling Quick Hits:
The close of August brought a couple of new surveys from Wisconsin, one from New York and a leftover from yesterday out of North Carolina.

Also, FHQ should mention the IPSOS/Reuters state-level tracking polls floating around out there. Typically, the modus operandi here is take any poll and add it into the mix with the caveat that there is a preference for likely voter screens and multi-candidate results when available (when there are multiple versions of the results). But the IPSOS data is tricky on at least two fronts. First, the dates of aggregation within states are overlapping. In other words, they ostensibly share not only time but responses. There is an echo of one poll in another.

Secondly, some of the sample sizes are incredibly small and thus have high margins of error. In looking back at the polls FHQ has added during March, there is no poll that has anything higher than a +/-5.0 MoE. There are a number of cases of this in the IPSOS data and many in states that are woefully underpolled. FHQ has some qualms with adding small sample size data anyway, but adding that sort of data in states where there is very little polling or no polling equates to adding data for the sake of adding data. Like Donald Trump on the immigration issue, FHQ will need some time to fully consider these issues and how/whether to include this data. Let this serve as an editorial note that the matter is being considered.

To the day's polls.


New York:
The latest Emerson survey of the Empire state is more of the same. The story has been Clinton underperforming Obama and other past Democratic nominees in New York and Trump stuck in the low to mid-30s. That is true here as well. Clinton is running about ten points behind Obama's 2012 pace and the overall margin between Clinton and Trump about ten points behind the 2012 margin. The end result is still the same: a deeply blue state (and one not yet put in play by its favorite son).


North Carolina:
Emerson also surveyed North Carolina for the first time this cycle, and let's just say that that Marist survey from earlier this month is looking more and more like an outlier in a sea of narrow leads (or ties) for either candidate in the Tar Heel state. This one is the first survey to show Trump ahead since a small sample Survey USA poll on the heels of the Democratic convention. Still, North Carolina's is still a tale of a very close race; one favoring Clinton by a slight margin, but one that is inching closer.


Wisconsin:
In the Badger state, two new surveys updated the early August picture (when last the state was polled). Together the Marquette and Monmouth polls show a tightening race and more clearly than elsewhere show an end to Clinton's convention bounce or the effects of Trump's bad post-convention week. Wisconsin has spent the summer hovering around the Strong/Lean Clinton line, but the addition of these surveys pulls Wisconsin's average down in to the heart of the Lean category. It is still an uphill climb for Trump at this point, but the trend line is moving in the Republican nominee's direction. As always, more data will be required to see whether or not this holds.


--
There were not too many changes to the various figures after this last update for August. The map held steady, continuing to show a 347-191 Clinton advantage in the Electoral College. North Carolina and Iowa switched places on the Spectrum. Both are still very close but consistently tipped in the Clinton's direction. Wisconsin, as mentioned above, drew closer and thus moved down a couple of notches on the Spectrum in to the middle of the Lean category. The new polls there also moved Wisconsin off the Watch List, no longer threatening to jump into the Strong Clinton area.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
MO-10
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(145)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
ME-4
(182)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
KS-6
(142)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(187)
OH-18
(320 | 236)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
WI-10
(197)
IA-6
(326 | 218)
TX-38
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(204)
NC-15
(341 | 212)
IN-11
(92)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
MI-16
(220)
NV-6
(347 | 197)
MS-6
(81)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
WA-12
(151)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
MN-10
(161)
VA-13
(249)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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