New State Polls (9/4/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
|
8/30-9/2
|
+/- 4.0%
|
1088 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
4
|
+4
|
+1.89
| |
Pennsylvania
|
8/30-9/2
|
+/- 4.1%
|
1091 likely voters
|
45
|
37
|
6
|
+8
|
+5.96
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Following a week on hiatus YouGov returned to what during August had become regularly occurring Sunday poll releases. With the addition of new surveys from North Carolina and Pennsylvania, the internet polling firm has since the conventions released individual polls from 10 of the now-expanded list of 13 battleground states they are tracking with CBS. Only Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin lack updates from YouGov in that time.
North Carolina:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the polls may go back and forth as to which of the two major party candidates has the advantage in the Tar Heel state, but in the aggregate, it is clear that Hillary Clinton has a small but persistent lead there. And in this new YouGov survey, it is Clinton's "turn" to be in the lead. Compared to the last update in North Carolina (from YouGov in June), Trump has held steady while Clinton has gained a couple of points. Trump's share of support is in the heart of his range of results across all surveys conducted in the state in 2016. Clinton, on the other hand, is at the very upper end of her North Carolina range.
All that is to say that this poll confirms the overarching state of play in the race for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania:
The same sort of pattern that has occurred in North Carolina is true in Pennsylvania as well. The only difference is that Clinton's edge in the Keystone state is more comfortable. Her advantage there has been just as consistent, but turned to a deeper shade of blue than North Carolina. Looking at the post-convention landscape, this eight point margin for Clinton is basically par for the course. It is yet another near double digit lead that perhaps runs counter to the rebound that Trump has seen over the last couple of weeks.
FHQ does not want to make too much of an apples to oranges comparison here, but whereas Clinton was running toward the top of her range in the North Carolina poll, both she and Trump are more tightly in line with the FHQ average shares for each in Pennsylvania. It is a "normal looking" survey that tends to confirm the dynamics there. It is a sign of steadiness in a sea of seeming volatility.
--
As the new additions to the dataset did not shake up the averages in either state, they obviously had a minimal effect on the infographics here. The map, Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List were unchanged from the last update a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
ME-4
(182)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
WI-10
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(204)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
MI-16
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
WV-5
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
AL-9
(19)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/3/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)
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The Electoral College Map (9/3/16)
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