New State Polls (9/6/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
8/27-8/29
|
+/- 4.0%
|
500 likely voters
|
29
|
39
|
10
|
+10
|
+8.551
| |
Maryland
|
8/18-8/30
|
+/- 3.5%
|
771 likely voters
|
54
|
25
|
12
|
+29
|
+30.501
| |
1Averages include Survey Monkey/Washington Post surveys.
| |||||||||
Polling Quick Hits:
The release of the 50 state Survey Monkey/Washington Post polls grabbed all of the headlines post-Labor Day but there were a couple of other surveys from two underpolled to this point states. FHQ will get to the Survey Monkey polls in a separate post (though they are included in the two averages above). The short version of that flood of data is that, although there are some outliers, the bulk of the surveys are consistent other polling in those states. But we will have more on that later.
Alaska:
No, the margin is not really all that atypical in Alaska, but the candidates' shares of support in the Moore Information survey of the Last Frontier are running well behind -- double digits -- the pace set by their 2012 counterparts. Alaska may be marginally closer in 2016 than 2012, but that is in line with the slight uniform shift FHQ has been charting here throughout the summer. The addition of this one is more of the same.
Maryland:
The same is largely similar in the Old Line state. The outcome is not in doubt, yet, both Clinton and Trump are lagging behind Obama and Romney in Maryland in 2012. Trump is a bit further back of where Romney was and that to makes Maryland fit will into this notion of an overall uniform shift of across states.
--
After the addition of today's polls, the map remains the same. However, Alaska comes off the Watch List and shifts to the other, less competitive end of the Lean Trump pack on the Electoral College Spectrum.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
KS-6
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
ME-4
(182)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
UT-6
(139)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
TX-38
(133)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
WI-10
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
AK-3
(95)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(204)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
MI-16
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
WV-5
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
AL-9
(19)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/4/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/3/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)
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The Electoral College Map (9/4/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/3/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)
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