The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)

New State Polls (9/22/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.5%	484 likely voters	33	37	19	+2	+1.55
California	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.3%	515 likely voters	57	30	9	+27	--
California	PPIC	9/9-9/18	+/- 4.5%	1055 likely voters	47	31	4	+16	+20.50
Colorado	Franklin & Marshall/Colorado Mesa	9/14-9/18	+/- 6.3%	350 likely voters	41	34	10	+7	--
Colorado	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.9%	644 likely voters	44	42	2	+2	+5.84
Florida	Suffolk	9/19-9/21	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	44	45	7	+2	+2.16
Georgia	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	40	47	4	+7	+1.76
Illinois	Emerson	9/19-9/21	+/- 3.6%	700 likely voters	44.5	38.7	7.3	+5.8	+14.68
Iowa	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 4.0%	612 likely voters	37	44	5	+7	+0.51
Louisiana	Southern Media & Opinion Research	9/15-9/17	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	32.6	48.9	10.8	+16.3	+13.23
Maryland	Goucher/Field Politics Center	9/17-9/20	+/- 4.3%	514 likely voters	58	25	8	+33	+31.15
Nevada	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.9%	398 likely voters	40	42	10	+2	+0.29
North Carolina	New York Times (Upshot)/Siena	9/16-9/19	+/- 3.6%	782 likely voters	41	41	5	+/-0	+0.88
Virginia	Roanoke	9/11-9/20	+/- 3.4%	841 likely voters	44	37	9	+7	--
Virginia	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.8%	659 likely voters	45	39	6	+6	+5.94
Washington	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.4%	505 likely voters	38	28	14	+10	+12.62
Wisconsin	Emerson	9/19-9/20	+/- 3.6%	700 likely voters	44.5	38.4	4.1	+6.1	+7.03

Polling Quick Hits:
There is a lot to look at today with just 47 days until Election Day: 17 new surveys from 14 states.

Arizona:
Other than the Cronkite survey of Arizona at the end of August, this Insights West poll is the lowest share of support either candidate has garnered in the Grand Canyon state all year. Both polls share a high number of undecideds, but the bottom line, perhaps, is that this is another survey with Trump ahead but in the toss up area. His lead there has stabilized as September has not seen Trump trail Clinton in Arizona.


California:
Clinton's 47 percent in that PPIC poll jumps off the screen at first glance except that it is actually an improvement over her share of support in last PPIC poll from July. She may be lagging behind Obama in 2012 in the Golden state, but Trump continues to trail not only Clinton but Romney's pace four years ago as well. California is still blue.


Colorado:
The two polls out of the Centennial state are pretty representative of the polls over there: Clinton at or just above 40 percent and Trump moving around from the mid-30s to around 40 percent. Colorado could be close, but it will take Trump's support firming up some there to pull it off.


Florida:
Yesterday was a good day for Clinton in Florida, but the polling there has been back and forth throughout September. And there was a snap back toward Trump today in the latest Suffolk survey. Of course, while the polling has been volatile, the average margin in the Sunshine state here at FHQ has not. Clinton's advantage has been stuck in that two to three point range for a while now.


Georgia:
In the Peach state, Trump has found a consistent footing in the mid-40s; something confirmed in Quinnipiac's first survey in the state. On the other hand, Clinton looks a lot like Trump does in a number of the states he will likely need to get to and over 270. In other words, she is stuck around 40 percent and playing catch up.


Illinois:
So far in 2016, the Clinton-Trump race in Illinois has been only sporadically surveyed. It is a shame, then, that the two most recent polls -- two surveys showing a Democrat dipping into the 40s -- come from landline-only Emerson and Loras (whose only other poll was a big outlier in Iowa earlier in the summer). Look, if the other poll from Emerson today -- a Clinton +6 in Wisconsin -- is right on the mark, then it would be highly unusual for Illinois to closer. Or put it this way: if Clinton is only ahead  by around six in Illinois, then the expectation would be that Trump is leading in Wisconsin. None of the polling there has borne that out to this point.


Iowa:
Like Arizona and Georgia, Iowa has seen a string of Trump leads in the polls during September. That streak continues in the latest Quinnipiac survey of the Hawkeye state. What is more is that the near ties in August have been displaced by results that would fall in the Lean Trump category. Those are the types of polls, when strung together, that can build a durable lead. What is Trump's 40 percent problem in a number of the Lean Clinton states is Clinton's problem in the Arizona, Georgia and Iowa trio.


Louisiana:
One could focus on how Trump continues to fall short of Mitt Romney's share of the 2012 vote in states like Louisiana, but that tends to miss the point. Clinton is running well enough behind Trump that the Pelican state is still safely red; off to the far right hand column on the Electoral College Spectrum below.


Maryland:
Like Wyoming yesterday, both candidate are behind the marks set by the 2012 candidates in Maryland. But that matters less in view of the fact that the Old Line state is so far off to the Democratic side of the Spectrum.


Nevada:
Nevada is another state, like a handful above, that has been good to Trump in in September. With only one exception, the New York businessman has led every poll in that stretch but the very first one of the month. The narrow Clinton lead that developed following the conventions disappeared and has  been replaced by a narrow Trump advantage in the state. That edge can only grow so much as long as the poll margins remain as close as they are in polls like the Insights West survey.



North Carolina:
The Tar Heel state has seen no such polling streak for either candidate over the last month. Clinton's overall advantage in the state here at FHQ continues to shrink. But the range of results it a pretty tight band around something close to zero. It is fitting, then, that the new survey of the state from Siena shows just that: a tie. North Carolina, along with Iowa, Nevada and Ohio, are all within a fraction of a point of shifting across the partisan line. Unlike the other three, though, there is no clear trend toward Trump. Instead, North Carolina resembles a closer version of volatile Florida.


Virginia:
As FHQ mentioned in yesterday's update, Virginia is one of those "sticky" Lean Clinton states where the polling (and resulting average) has consistently had Clinton out front by a margin beyond the Lean/Toss Up line (in the Lean category). The two new polls of the Old Dominion from Roanoke and Quinnipiac do nothing to shake up that particular conclusion.


Washington:
The margin in the new Insights West survey looks about right in Washington if past elections are any guide. However, both candidates are collectively only pulling in the support of about two-thirds of the respondents in the poll. That has both Clinton and Trump well behind where Obama and Romney were in the Evergreen state four years ago. Washington is underpolled, but the picture gleaned from what data there is still finds the state in a comfortable area for the Democrats.


Wisconsin:
In the Badger state, just wait on other polling. The Emerson poll there may be in line with expectations, but standing alongside the other survey from the firm today, it looks off. Or something about the two surveys is mismatched. The clear picture in Wisconsin is that Clinton's cushion has dissipated, but that she has a durable, though small, advantage there.


--
There was some subtle shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum today, but nothing that broke with the patterns established throughout this cycle. No states changed categories and the map and Spectrum remain largely the same. Colorado's addition to the Watch List and into a tight cluster of states (Maine, Pennsylvania and Virginia) along that Lean/Toss Up line.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	NH-43 (269 | 273)	TX-38 (155)	LA-8 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	RI-43 (273 | 269)	MS-6 (116)	TN-11 (50)
MA-11 (28)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
VT-3 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 | 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
CA-55 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 | 221)	UT-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	NV-6 (203)	KS-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (232)	IA-6 (197)	AR-6 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	ME-4 (236)	AZ-11 (191)	IN-11 (80)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	CO-9 (245)	GA-16 (180)	MT-3 (69)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	PA-20 (265)	MO-10 (164)	KY-8 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Arkansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Colorado	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
North Carolina	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Electoral College Map (9/21/16)

FHQ has been on a bit of a hiatus over the course of the last two weeks. In terms of movement in the polls, it was probably the worst time other than the post-convention period to be away from these electoral college updates. Still, that space -- the chance to take a step back -- can help to provide a bit of perspective about what is going on. There can be a tendency to miss the forest for the trees. 

Before getting to today's newly released state polls, a few observations. 

1. Yes, this period has been particularly bad for Clinton in the polls following the "deplorables" and pneumonia combination. And while there has been an erosion of support for the former Secretary of State, she maintains a tenuous grasp on a lead in the electoral college count. The margins have shrunk  in the FHQ averages across the board, but only Iowa and Nevada have jumped the partisan line from Clinton to Trump. North Carolina and Ohio remain on the Clinton side of the ledger, but only barely so. All four states are within a point of being tied. 

2. The list of toss ups holds those four states in addition to Florida, Arizona and Georgia. That is all. Those seven states are all within the three points of shifting sides. And it is worth noting that that specific battleground is superfluous to Clinton's path to 270. Though the terrain may change in the next six weeks, all seven states are wants rather than needs for Clinton. However, that cushion she had weeks ago is shrinking as Trump has pushed the partisan line up the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum below toward the victory line (or tipping point as is more common).

3. Meanwhile, the other 44 states (including Washington, DC) lean five or more points in favor of one candidate or the other. That fact is more important to Clinton at this point since the combination of her lean and strong states continue to put her over the 270 electoral vote mark. Clinton's slide has narrowed the gap specifically in those lean states. But Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia all seem sticky; tightening but less than some of the other states and not looking likely to shift far enough toward Trump. Others in that Lean Clinton category like Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin -- and maybe criminally underpolled Minnesota -- are closing more quickly and may bear closer scrutiny in the home stretch rather than the "sticky" lean group. 

4. For all the noise in this race for the White House, it has been pretty stable through the lens of the electoral college. This thing still looks an awful lot like 2012 (both on the map and on the Spectrum). All the Obama states save Iowa and Nevada are still with Clinton and all the Romney states except North Carolina are currently in Trump's corner. Yes, some other states are teetering on the brink of shifting sides, but overall, it is evidence of a remarkable stability that does not often get talked about. 

At least some of that stability has something to do with the method FHQ uses. The graduated weighted average reduces the crests and troughs of the roller coaster and is also slower than some other forecasting models to react. FHQ has defended this slow reaction time in the past. When a change happens here -- particularly one that is part of a longer-term trend -- that has tended to be a lasting change. There is more certainty behind it.

If the slowness has been noticeable anywhere, it has been in those Lean Clinton states cited above: Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those bear watching in the coming weeks.

On to the polls...

New State Polls (9/21/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	St. Leo	9/10-9/16	+/- 4.5%	475 likely voters	49	43	--	+6	+2.26
Nevada	Fox	9/18-9/20	+/- 3.5%	805 likely voters	40	43	3	+3	+0.14
New Hampshire	Monmouth	9/17-9/20	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	47	38	3	+9	+5.50
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	9/18-9/20	+/- 3.1%	1024 likely voters	43	45	7	+2	--
North Carolina	Fox	9/18-9/20	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	40	45	7	+5	+0.93
Ohio	Fox	9/18-9/20	+/- 3.5%	806 likely voters	37	42	10	+5	+0.82
Wisconsin	Marquette	9/15-9/18	+/- 4.8%	677 likely voters	41	38	7	+3	+7.12
Wyoming	DFM Research	9/6-9/11	+/- 4.9%	402 likely voters	19	54	15	+35	+35.48

Polling Quick Hits:

Florida:
Florida keeps being Florida. The polling has been volatile in the Sunshine state, but that two to three point Clinton lead here at FHQ has been quite consistent. Granted, polls like this St. Leo survey and the Monmouth poll from a day ago were good ones for Clinton. Her average rebounded somewhat on the addition of those surveys, but they only bumped the margin up by a fraction.


Nevada:

Changes (September 21)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Clinton	Toss Up Trump

The Silver state has been volatile too, but in waves. The tide has seemingly turned there. Trump has led every poll since 9-11 and by a range of one to three points. That has been enough to chip away at Clinton's lead and push the state to Trump for the moment.


New Hampshire:
The post-convention double digit leads are gone in the Granite state for Clinton, but they have been replaced by a steady stream of surveys that have further entrenched New Hampshire in the Lean Clinton area. What's more, New Hampshire is a state where Trump has had difficulty pushing above 40 percent. That is workable in some state, but not in one where Clinton finds herself on the high side of the mid-40s.


North Carolina:
It was a good day for Trump in the North Carolina polls. The PPP survey -- Trump +2 -- is in line with other recent polling. And the five point advantage in the Fox poll may be a sign of some further changes in the Tar Heel state. However, Trump has not led a poll by more than four points there since March. This one could also be an outlier. North Carolina has been on Clinton's side of the partisan all along here at FHQ, but that could change.


Ohio:
Like Nevada, every post-9-11 poll in the Buckeye state (but with one exception) has favored Trump. And like North Carolina, that trend has brought Ohio to the cusp of shifting over to Trump. What had mostly been two to four point leads for Clinton after the conventions are now mostly two to four point advantages for Trump.


Wisconsin:
While there probably need to be more polls conducted in Wisconsin, the Badger state has consistently fallen in the Clinton +3 area over the last month or so to seemingly confirm where it stands. The addition of the Marquette poll did little to break from that trend -- replicating the Clinton/Trump numbers from August -- but it did nudge the average there down just a little bit more. Clinton may be hovering just above 40 percent in Wisconsin, but it is another state, like New Hampshire, where Trump has has some trouble breaking that barrier or getting very far past it.


Wyoming:
Sure, both candidates are lagging behind their 2012 counterparts in the Equality state, but Wyoming remains the reddest of red states. The new DFM poll only confirms that.


--
Obviously, Nevada's six electoral votes shift toward Trump. That is reflected on the map, Spectrum and Watch List. Additionally, on the weight of the new polls in North Carolina and Ohio, both are now included on the Watch List.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	NH-43 (269 | 273)	TX-38 (155)	KY-8 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	RI-43 (273 | 269)	MS-6 (116)	TN-11 (50)
MA-11 (28)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
VT-3 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 | 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
CA-55 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 | 221)	UT-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	IA-6 (203)	KS-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	CO-9 (228)	NV-6 (197)	AR-6 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	ME-4 (232)	GA-16 (191)	IN-11 (80)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	VA-13 (245)	AZ-11 (175)	LA-8 (69)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	PA-20 (265)	MO-10 (164)	MT-3 (61)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Arkansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
North Carolina	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.