Tuesday, September 27, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/27/16)



New State Polls (9/27/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
North Carolina
9/18-9/22
+/- 4.43%
487 likely voters
38
35
11
+3
+1.27
Pennsylvania
9/12-9/23
+/- 4.8%
420 likely voters
42
41
11
+1
--
Pennsylvania
9/23
+/- 3.2%
949 likely voters
46
43
6
+3
+4.96


Polling Quick Hits:
There were a few pre-debate stragglers that made an appearance either late Monday or early Tuesday. Those polls have now been added into the mix.

North Carolina:
The trendline over the last week in North Carolina has shifted back in Clinton's direction. Whereas Trump and Clinton were trading leads in Tar Heel state surveys of late, the four most recent polls have found the former Secretary of State narrowly ahead. The Meredith College poll is part of that series and has turned the average back around. It had dipped under one point briefly, but has snapped back, remaining just off the Watch List.

The margin may be consistent with other recent polls, but the candidates' shares of support are a bit lower -- in the upper 30s -- than they have tended to be.


Pennsylvania:
Changes (September 27)
StateBeforeAfter
PennsylvaniaLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
While North Carolina has seemingly reached its nadir as part the mid-September Clinton swoon, the flood of new polling in Pennsylvania has it still very much on a narrowing trajectory. But it is less about Clinton shifting in the polls than about Trump pushing from the upper 30s into the lower 40s just below Clinton. On the weight of this series of tight polls in Pennsylvania during the early part of this week, the Keystone state has shifted just under the Lean/Toss Up line, joining Colorado and Maine in Toss Up Clinton territory.


--
Pennsylvania shifted down a cell on the Spectrum, turned lighter blue on the map and flipped on the Watch List. North Carolina, meanwhile, held pat across all three.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
ME-4
(264)
MS-6
(126)
TN-11
(56)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
CO-93
(273 | 274)
MO-10
(120)
AR-6
(45)
VT-3
(20)
NM-5
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(110)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
AK-3
(101)
ND-3
(36)
CA-55
(86)
WI-10
(203)
OH-18
(335 | 221)
KS-6
(98)
ID-4
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(219)
NV-6
(203)
UT-6
(92)
NE-5
(29)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(232)
IA-6
(197)
IN-11
(86)
OK-7
(24)
WA-12
(147)
NH-4
(236)
AZ-11
(191)
MT-3
(75)
WV-5
(17)
CT-17
(154)
RI-4
(240)
GA-16
(180)
KY-8
(72)
AL-9
(12)
OR-7
(161)
PA-20
(260)
TX-38
(164)
LA-8
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)

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Monday, September 26, 2016

The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)



New State Polls (9/26/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
9/20-9/22
+/- 4.12%
550 registered voters
38
40
14
+2
+1.95
Colorado
9/22-9/23
+/- 3.5%
799 registered voters
37
41
10
+4
--
Colorado
9/20-9/25
+/- 3.5%
784 likely voters
41
42
0
+1
+3.14
Florida
9/16-9/20
+/- 4.0%
617 likely voters
43
41
6
+2
+1.96
Iowa
9/20-9/22
+/- 4.4%
491 likely voters
38
38
14
+/-0
+0.93
Louisiana
9/22-9/24
+/- 3.3%
905 likely voters
35
45
13
+10
+13.84
Massachusetts
9/15-9/20
+/- 4.3%
700 likely voters
47
31
5
+16
+20.77
Minnesota
9/16-9/20
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
46
39
6
+7
+8.01
New Hampshire
9/20-9/25
+/- 4.2%
522 registered voters
46
42
5
+4
+5.40
New York
9/21-9/23
+/- 3.8%
676 likely voters
52
31
3
+22
+20.15
North Carolina
9/17-9/22
+/- 4.9%
404 likely voters
43
42
6
+1
--
North Carolina
9/23
+/- 3.7%
694 likely voters
44
43
5
+1
+1.05
Ohio
9/15-9/22
--
652 registered voters
40
37
2
+3
--
Ohio
9/22-9/23
+/- 3.4%
850 registered voters
42
43
8
+1
+0.80
Pennsylvania
9/21-9/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
45
43
4
+2
--
Pennsylvania
9/20-9/25
+/- 3.5%
771 likely voters
45
44
0
+1
+5.27
Virginia
9/15-9/23
+/- 3.9%
1003 likely voters
39
33
2
+6
+6.21


Polling Quick Hits:
Quite a few firms were seemingly attempting to get some last minute, pre-debate surveys in the can to set the before of the first debate before and after. There were 17 new polls in 13 states to be released on the day debate season is set to kickoff at Hofstra.

On to the truly quick hits...

Arizona:
Arizona really has not budged all that much in September. There are exceptions, but Trump has consistently been around 40 percent and Clinton in the upper 30s. That that type of margin keeps popping up says there is something to it, but also that Trump modest lead is real though not expanding.


Colorado:
Another day, another couple of close polls in Colorado. The Gravis and CNN polls were not only close, but had Trump ahead. Still, this is one where both candidates are stuck around 40 percent. If the third party numbers hold up in the Centennial state, things might stay close and something in the low 40s might take the state. For now, though, the margin is quickly narrowing.


Florida:
The Sunshine state has been a ray of light for Clinton over the last week or so. Yes, the polling has been back and forth, but the former Secretary has not fallen behind for a series of polls in Florida as she has in other states -- Iowa, Nevada and perhaps Ohio -- that have closed more quickly of late (or pushed over the partisan line into Trump territory). It should be said, however, that the margin in Florida here at FHQ has dipped below two points for the first time in a while, but just barely.


Iowa:
Loras has not had a good track record in Iowa during the 2016 cycle. The firm's last poll in the Hawkeye state from June had Clinton up double digits during a period in which narrow leads were the order of the day. Now, the latest update has Trump down in the 30s for the first time in any poll since just after the conventions in the midst of a series of polls that have had him squarely in the mid-40s. The Clinton number looks consistent, but this one is likely another outlier.


Louisiana:
JMC Analytics was back in the field in the Pelican state and found a tighter margin since its July poll. Regardless, this is a red state with no real sign of moderating. Trump may be lagging Romney's pace in the Louisiana but remains comfortably ahead.


Massachusetts:
The same thing could be said in Massachusetts for Clinton. Dipping into the 40s in the Bay state is eye-popping on some level for a Democratic candidate. Of course, that stings less when that candidate is still comfortably up.


Minnesota:
At this point Minnesota is no closer for Republicans than it was in 2012. The current eight point margin here at FHQ mirrors the margin on Election Day four years ago. The difference is that there continues to be a pretty healthy level of undecideds in the Land of 10,000 Lakes that could change that in next six weeks. But the evidence thus far is that this is yet another Lean Clinton state where Trump is finding it difficult to get to 40 percent while Clinton is camped out in the mid-40s.


New York:
Nope, New York still isn't a swing state.


North Carolina:
Two new polls in North Carolina both found Clinton up one in the Tar Heel state. Like Florida, the polling has bounced around in North Carolina but within a more narrow range. The result is about the same, however: Clinton up narrowly here at FHQ.


Ohio:
Clinton may be downsizing in Ohio (at least in terms of her presence in the state), but today was a day that found her on the plus side of 40 percent in a couple of new polls there. That is a break from the pattern that had emerged in the Buckeye state. Trump has mostly been in the low to mid-40s since  September 11 and Clinton trailing around if not below 40. Both polls stop the march toward a tie in the averages here, but Ohio is still very close. Only Nevada is closer.


Pennsylvania:
If breaking 40 is the main issue for Trump in the Lean Clinton states, then that bubble may have been busted. New surveys from Harper and CNN in the Keystone state find the New York businessman back in the 40s for the first time since August (with just one exception from IPSOS). This is the first CNN poll in Pennsylvania so it is difficult to get a good read on the context, but the Harper poll has Clinton stationary and Trump gaining four points since the last poll the firm conducted there.

...in March. Of course, that was a period when the few polls to come out of Pennsylvania found Trump in the low to mid-30s (during primary season).


Virginia:
Finally in Virginia, aside from the high third party presence in the new Christopher Newport survey,  the margin looks about right relative to the FHQ average for the Old Dominion. That stands at about six points, around where most of the polls have been there over the last couple of weeks.

--
There was a lot of new data to usher in the new week, but not much in the way of changes here at FHQ. All of the states with new polling information stayed in place on the map. However, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania each moved one cell close to the partisan line on the Spectrum and Colorado moved off the Watch List. The Centennial state is now in the heart of the Toss Up Clinton category.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
ME-4
(264)
MS-6
(126)
TN-11
(56)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
CO-93
(273 | 274)
MO-10
(120)
AR-6
(45)
VT-3
(20)
NM-5
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(110)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(317 | 236)
AK-3
(101)
ND-3
(36)
CA-55
(86)
WI-10
(203)
OH-18
(335 | 221)
KS-6
(98)
ID-4
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(219)
NV-6
(203)
UT-6
(92)
NE-5
(29)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(232)
IA-6
(197)
IN-11
(86)
OK-7
(24)
WA-12
(147)
NH-4
(236)
AZ-11
(191)
MT-3
(75)
WV-5
(17)
CT-17
(154)
PA-20
(256)
GA-16
(180)
KY-8
(72)
AL-9
(12)
OR-7
(161)
RI-4
(260)
TX-38
(164)
LA-8
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Maine
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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