New State Polls (11/2/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/-3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
43
|
47
|
5
|
+4
|
--
| |
Arizona
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-3.5%
|
769 likely voters
|
44
|
49
|
0
|
+5
|
--
| |
Arizona
|
10/28-11/1
|
--
|
1113 likely voters
|
41
|
42
|
6
|
+1
|
+1.42
| |
Colorado
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/-3.5%
|
750 likely voters
|
44
|
41
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/-4.2%
|
550 likely voters
|
39
|
39
|
9
|
+/-0
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/28-11/1
|
--
|
972 likely voters
|
44
|
37
|
8
|
+7
|
+3.94
| |
Florida
|
10/25-10/30
|
--
|
718 likely voters
|
48
|
40
|
0
|
+8
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/27-10/31
|
+/-2.89%
|
1150 likely voters
|
45
|
49
|
3
|
+4
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-3.5%
|
773 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
0
|
+2
|
--
| |
Florida
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-3.9%
|
626 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
4
|
+1
|
+2.06
| |
Georgia
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/-3.8%
|
650 likely voters
|
42
|
51
|
2
|
+9
|
+3.13
| |
Kansas
|
10/26-10/30
|
+/-4.0%
|
624 likely voters
|
38
|
49
|
6
|
+11
|
+11.64
| |
Louisiana
|
10/15-10/21
|
--
|
614 likely voters
|
40
|
43
|
7
|
+3
|
+12.72
| |
Michigan
|
9/1-10/31
|
+/-3.6%
|
746 likely voters
|
47
|
28
|
8
|
+19
|
--
| |
Michigan
|
11/1
|
+/-3.29%
|
887 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
3
|
+3
|
+7.20
| |
Missouri
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/-3.8%
|
650 likely voters
|
37
|
52
|
4
|
+15
|
--
| |
Missouri
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-4.4%
|
508 likely voters
|
38
|
47
|
11
|
+9
|
+7.92
| |
Nevada
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-3.5%
|
790 likely voters
|
43
|
49
|
1
|
+6
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/28-11/1
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
45
|
45
|
4
|
+/-0
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/28-11/1
|
--
|
892 likely voters
|
45
|
38
|
7
|
+7
|
+0.77
| |
New Mexico
|
10/28-11/1
|
--
|
567 likely voters
|
39
|
31
|
7
|
+8
|
+7.85
| |
North Carolina
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-4.0%
|
602 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
5
|
+3
|
+1.58
| |
Ohio
|
10/24-10/26
|
+/-2.89%
|
1150 likely voters
|
44
|
49
|
5
|
+5
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-4.0%
|
589 likely voters
|
41
|
46
|
5
|
+5
|
+0.25
| |
Oregon
|
10/25-10/29
|
+/-4.4%
|
504 likely voters
|
41
|
34
|
11
|
+7
|
+9.43
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-3.5%
|
799 likely voters
|
48
|
44
|
0
|
+4
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-4.0%
|
612 likely voters
|
48
|
43
|
2
|
+5
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/29-11/1
|
+/-4.9%
|
403 likely voters
|
48
|
44
|
3
|
+4
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.76%
|
681 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
6
|
+2
|
+5.38
| |
Virginia
|
10/23-10/30
|
+/-3.6%
|
712 likely voters
|
44
|
39
|
7
|
+5
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/26-10/30
|
+/-4.37%
|
802 likely voters
|
41
|
44
|
15
|
+3
|
+6.37
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/26-10/31
|
+/-3.5%
|
1255 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
4
|
+6
|
+6.42
| |
--
Changes (11/2/16)
6 days left.
There is lots to look at today. 32 polls from 16 states were released, offering quite a bit of data in a number of battleground states. Additionally, there were a few other surveys from several Lean Clinton states where Trump has peel off at least one in addition to sweeping the toss ups to get to 270.
All of that data was noisy, but the underlying picture is one of stability. Yes, part of that is the methodology behind the FHQ graduated weighted averages. But the race, not to mention the map, has been in stasis at 340-198 since the beginning of October. That remains true even with the addition of these polls. Ohio continues to close in on a tie here at FHQ, moving toward Trump. Any more results resembling today's polls of the Buckeye state will likely push it over the partisan line. Of course, Ohio has been on the Watch List for a while now. It was joined again by Nevada which slipped under the Clinton +1 mark on the weight of three new surveys.
The order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum also held mostly steady. Virginia and Wisconsin swapped spots in the Lean Clinton area, and Missouri pushed past South Carolina in the Lean Trump area. Other than that, everything held steady.
Late add:
The University of Denver poll of Colorado pulls the Centennial state off the Watch List. It is now firmly within the Toss Up Clinton area (in addition to being the tipping point state below on the Spectrum).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
UT-6
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
SD-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)
Happy Halloween, 2016
The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)
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