The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)

New State Polls (11/7/16)
Morning Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.27%	1863 likely voters	42	41	6	+1	+3.91
Florida	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.02%	2352 likely voters	45	48	3	+3	--
Florida	Quinnipiac	11/3-11/6	+/-3.3%	884 likely voters	46	45	5	+1	+1.98
Georgia	Landmark	11/6	+/-2.8%	1200 likely voters	46	49	2	+3	+3.04
Missouri	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.5%	750 likely voters	41	47	4	+6	+8.02
Nevada	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.31%	1793 likely voters	45	46	4	+1	--
Nevada	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.9%	600 likely voters	47	46	2	+1	+0.96
New Hampshire	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.0%	1000 likely voters	45	44	3	+1	--
New Hampshire	UNH/WMUR	11/3-11/6	+/-3.7%	707 likely voters	49	38	4	+11	+4.82
New Mexico	ZiaPoll	11/6	+/-1.8%	8439 likely voters	46	44	1	+2	+6.44
North Carolina	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.92%	2596 likely voters	45	48	2	+3	--
North Carolina	Quinnipiac	11/3-11/6	+/-3.3%	870 likely voters	47	45	4	+2	--
North Carolina	Siena/New York Times (Upshot)	11/4-11/6	+/-3.5%	800 likely voters	44	44	6	+/-0	+1.36
Ohio	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.94%	2557 likely voters	44	45	3	+1	--
Ohio	TargetSmart	10/31-11/3	--	1194 likely voters	40	43	2	+3	--
Ohio	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.2%	900 likely voters	39	46	6	+7	+0.01
Pennsylvania	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.89%	2683 likely voters	46	45	3	+1	+5.00
Virginia	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.77%	3076 likely voters	46	44	3	+2	--
Virginia	Christopher Newport	11/4-11/6	+/-3.6%	1193 likely voters	48	42	5	+6	+6.20
Wisconsin	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.88%	2720 likely voters	49	41	4	+8	+6.49
Afternoon Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Data Orbital	11/4-11/6	+/-4.12%	550 likely voters	44	47	1	+3	+1.71
Florida	Opinion Savvy	11/5-11/6	+/-3.4%	853 likely voters	48	46	1	+2	--
Florida	Trafalgar	11/6	+/-2.89%	1100 likely voters	46	50	1	+4	+1.89
Georgia	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.6%	995 likely voters	43	49	3	+6	+3.14
Michigan	Trafalgar	11/6	+/-2.77%	1200 likely voters	47	49	1	+2	+6.51
Nevada	Trafalgar	11/1-11/4	+/-3.02%	1100 likely voters	45	50	2	+5	+0.80
Pennsylvania	Trafalgar	11/3-11/5	+/-2.68%	1300 likely voters	47	48	2	+1	--
Pennsylvania	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.3%	931 likely voters	45	43	4	+2	+4.84
Utah	Trafalgar	11/3-11/5	+/-2.67%	1350 likely voters	30	40	2	+10	--
Utah	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.9%	762 likely voters	23	40	4	+17	+9.971
Evening Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	Gravis	11/1-11/2	+/-2.8%	1220 registered voters	46	45	2	+1	+1.87
Michigan	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-3.0%	1079 registered voters	46	41	3	+5	+6.46
Nevada	Gravis	11/3-11/6	+/-2.9%	1158 likely voters	45	43	5	+2	+0.83
New Mexico	Gravis	11/1-11/2	+/-2.7%	1327 registered voters	45	37	2	+8	+6.58
North Carolina	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-2.8%	1250 registered voters	46	45	3	+1	+1.36
Virginia	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-2.7%	1362 registered voters	47	42	3	+5	--
Virginia	Hampton	11/2-11/6	+/-4.4%	802 likely voters	45	41	14	+4	+6.12
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.48 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 24% in the YouGov survey and 25% support in the Trafalgar survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.39%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.

--
Changes (11/7/16) -- Early edition
One last day.

Changes (November 7 -- Morning)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Clinton	Toss Up Trump

• Ohio jumped the partisan line from Toss Up Clinton to Toss Up Trump, but note the average: +0.01. The Buckeye state is close here at FHQ. 
• Nevada rejoins the Watch List, slipping under the Clinton +1 threshold, but the Silver state has been hovering there. 
• Colorado slides off the Watch List. It is now just a bit more than a point from the Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the partisan line. 
• The ZiaPoll survey of New Mexico -- given the sample size, it was the whole state -- drew the average in a bit further. It has tracked down to about a six and a half point lead for Clinton in the Land of Enchantment. That pushed New Mexico down to the lower half of the Lean Clinton group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. 

Late edition

Changes (November 7 -- Afternoon)
State	Before	After
Pennsylvania	Lean Clinton	Toss Up Clinton

• The Trafalgar and YouGov surveys were enough of a drag on the FHQ average in Pennsylvania that the Keystone state slipped just under the Lean/Toss Up line. Pennsylvania, then, follows New Hampshire as states that have until recently been just above that line but have hopped over it into the Toss Up Clinton area. Both remain clustered around that line, however; just on the opposite side.  
• That move also flips Pennsylvania on the Watch List, but keeps it in the same position on the Spectrum. 
• The Trafalgar survey of Michigan is the first to show Trump ahead since 2015. It may be a sign of something in the Great Lakes state or it could be an outlier (balancing out that MSU survey from last week). Either way, it decreased the average margin enough to ease Michigan past Maine on the Spectrum. 
• Also, Utah once again traded spots with Indiana, pushing to the very end of the Lean Trump area. The new polls out of the Beehive state nudge Trump even closer to 40 percent in the averages. Again, that will be enough to keep Clinton and McMullin at bay there and Utah in the Republican column.

Late late edition

• The Breibart wave of last minute Gravis polling releases mostly confirmed the state of the race in each of the states. There was some shuffling among the New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin cluster in the Lean Clinton area. New Mexico bounced back slightly after pushing down that column earlier in the day. Everything else held steady.

Barring anything unforeseen or any straggler surveys, this is likely what the final map will look like on election day. There are a few polls yet to be added into the dataset (the non-Breitbart wave of Gravis polls), but the expectation is that that will not alter the bottom line any if at all. It will not where it counts in any event: Clinton 322, Trump 216.

--

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	NH-4 (263)	TX-38 (161)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	SC-9 (123)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MO-10 (114)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	NE-53 (41)
CA-55 (86)	ME-23 (195)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	UT-6 (93)	KY-8 (36)
NY-29 (115)	NM-5 (200)	OH-18 (216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	WI-10 (210)	IA-6 (198)	SD-3 (81)	ID-4 (19)
DE-3 (139)	MI-16 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	KS-6 (78)	WV-5 (15)
WA-12 (151)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (158)	PA-20 (259)	AK-3 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)

New State Polls (11/6/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	YouGov/CBS	11/2-11/4	+/-3.6%	1188 likely voters	45	45	2	+/-0	+2.07
Michigan	Mitchell	11/3	+/-3.1%	1007 likely voters	46	41	3	+5	+6.80
New Mexico	Albuquerque Journal	11/1-11/3	+/-4.4%	504 likely voters	45	40	2	+5	+6.95
New York	Siena	11/3-11/4	+/-4.5%	617 likely voters	51	34	7	+17	+19.78
Ohio	YouGov/CBS	11/2-11/4	+/-4.1%	1189 likely voters	45	46	2	+1	--
Ohio	Columbus Dispatch	10/27-11/5	+/-2.9%	1159 likely voters	48	47	0	+1	+0.24

--
Changes (11/6/16)
Only 2 more days.

A few Sunday polls trickled in, but did little to change the overall outlook through the lens of the Electoral College. All of the six surveys from five states confirmed what was known about each before the poll numbers were released.

• Florida is close. It always is, but seems to favor Clinton a shade more than the Sunshine state did Obama four years ago. That does not make it a safe state for the former Secretary of State, but she is a bit more insulated there than Obama was.
• Michigan has closed some, but the margin there remains in a range just above the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the partisan line. 
• New Mexico looks similar to Michigan now that former Governor Gary Johnson's support has flagged in the Land of Enchantment. This is one where Clinton lags Obama more than Trump trails Romney's performance from 2012. But it still favors Clinton.
• New York is still blue. Still no change.
• There is some volatility in this race driving uncertainty heading into election day. But as of now through the FHQ graduated weighted averages, Ohio is shaping up as the only state that may drift over the partisan line between now and Tuesday. It is the most likely to do so in any event. And the two newly released polls in the Buckeye state did nothing to change that picture. 

The map, Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List all remain unchanged from a day ago.


--

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	NH-4 (263)	TX-38 (161)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	SC-9 (123)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MO-10 (114)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (31)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	UT-6 (104)	NE-53 (41)
CA-55 (86)	MN-10 (198)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	IN-11 (98)	KY-8 (36)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (214)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	ME-23 (216)	IA-6 (198)	SD-3 (81)	ID-4 (19)
DE-3 (139)	WI-10 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	KS-6 (78)	WV-5 (15)
WA-12 (151)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (158)	PA-20 (259)	AK-3 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)

New State Polls (11/5/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Gravis	11/1-11/2	+/-2.9%	1125 registered voters	40	40	3	+/-0	+4.00
Iowa	Loras	11/1-11/3	+/-4.4%	500 likely voters	44	43	7	+1	--
Iowa	Selzer/Des Moines Register	11/1-11/4	+/-3.5%	800 likely voters	39	46	6	+7	+1.33
Pennsylvania	Gravis/Breitbart	11/1-11/2	+/-3.1%	1016 registered voters	47	45	3	+2	--
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg/Morning Call	10/30-11/4	+/-5.5%	405 likely voters	44	40	5	+4	+5.08
Washington	Survey USA	10/31-11/2	+/-3.8%	681 likely voters	50	38	4	+12	+12.52

--
Changes (11/5/16)
3 days left.

Compared to the Saturday before election day four years ago, the 2016 edition was fairly slow. Whereas there were 20 polls released on November 3, 2012, there were just six new surveys added to the dataset with just three days remaining until the election.

The polls added did little to change the picture painted here at FHQ, but underneath that, the trajectory of the race continues to indicate a narrowing of the margins in the states where Clinton is ahead in the one to seven point range. Notably, that included a handful of surveys out of Colorado and Pennsylvania. No, the change was not significant in either, but both continued to track toward the partisan line and toward Trump. But both the Centennial and Keystone states remain clustered on the Watch List around that Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the ledger.

Other than that, there is only so much that six polls can do in the grand scheme of things. Iowa, a Toss Up Trump state since the conventions, showed no signs of flipping back to Clinton. If anything, the Hawkeye state, while still close, is seemingly firmly rooted on the Trump side of the partisan line.

The map, Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List all remain unchanged from a day ago.


--

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	NH-4 (263)	TX-38 (161)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	SC-9 (123)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MO-10 (114)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (31)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	UT-6 (104)	NE-53 (41)
CA-55 (86)	MN-10 (198)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	IN-11 (98)	KY-8 (36)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (214)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	ME-23 (216)	IA-6 (198)	SD-3 (81)	ID-4 (19)
DE-3 (139)	WI-10 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	KS-6 (78)	WV-5 (15)
WA-12 (151)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (158)	PA-20 (259)	AK-3 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.