Well, that didn't take long. Less than two hours after the polls closed the race has already been called for McCain on the GOP side (8:30pm). The real surprise is that with 15% of the precincts reporting Clinton leads Obama 40-36 with Edwards a distant third. Early numbers indicate that New Hampshire women are going with Clinton in a reverse from what happened in Iowa last Thursday (see 8:32pm post in above link).
UPDATE: The numbers on the Democratic side largely held up as the precincts continued to come in.
Clinton 39%
Obama 36
Edwards 17
So Clinton won a "shocking" comeback victory and the polls fooled us all.
How did the pre-elections polls get it so wrong? That's the topic among those in my profession. Gary Langer suggest's that it's bad "likely voter" models. Jon Krosnic posits that the name order on the ballot (Clinton near the top by luck of the draw and Obama at the bottom) may have given Clinton as much as a 3 percent boost -- not enough to explain the polling error. There are many people (very few of whom are in the survey research profession) who believe that respondents simply lie to pollsters. This will lead to a serious polling autopsy.
ReplyDelete--Rich Clark
An additional comment following Clinton's victory ... note that she did better among those who are mostly concerned with the economy. If the economy tanks over the next months, she is likely to reap the votes, as Obama is seen as too extravagant for tough economic times.
ReplyDeleteAnd while no one really cares at this point about the delegate count, Clinton and Obama each took 9 delegates from the primary, and Obama appears to have one more superdelegate than Clinton at this point.
ReplyDeleteRich,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the input. I'm sorry I've been slow to react, but I'm in New Orleans at the SPSA conference.
More tomorrow.
I mentioned earlier that Ed Rollins, not a neutral source, had indicated that Rudy was out of money. There are now reports that he is running low. See http://www.wnbc.com/politics/15028524/detail.html?rss=ny&psp=news
ReplyDeleteOn a similar report on NPR this morning the Giuliani people are claiming it is just a move to purchase more ads, but it looks like his strategy is not going to work.
As we have seen in previous campaigns, an unexpected victory in Iowa or New Hampshire can give a candidate substantial momentum. The first post-NH national poll shows McCain leading with 34% (Huckabee is second with 21%). McCain is now competitive in the 3 remaining primaries before Super Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteAlright, I'm back.
ReplyDeleteRich,
There was a round-table discussion at SPSA on the changes and consequences of the 2008 nomination cycle and Nicol Rae from Florida International said that Clinton had a significant lead in the superdelegate count. I'm going to have to check into this now. I know that Obama has a one delegate lead over Clinton now 25-24 with Edwards not far behind at 18.
I don't feel comfortable blogging the comments of the panelists sans permission but I will discuss some of their thoughts during the regular meeting on Wednesday.
How much do you feel not polling on Monday affected the discrepancy? Without reliable wireless access in the Big Easy, I was forced to watch Hardball and the like. Someone on one of those shows compared it to the Dewey headline in 1948.
Rob,
Thanks for the link. And let me add to what Paul has said: In addition to the NH boost for McCain, he and Giuliani are similar and I would imagine pull from some of the same base of voters. I see it as a zero-sum game with those two. If you were on Giuliani's campaign six months ago and wondered who might threaten the former mayor the most, I think McCain would have been the guy. Now, sure that doesn't work perfectly because McCain seemed dead at the time, but still. Ultimately, we're talking about two guys who won't necessarily be shy about their ability to pull in independent voters should they be the guy in November. If ever there were a case of stolen thunder, I think this is a great example. McCain is the new Giuliani (read frontrunner).
CNN is keeping count of committed superdelegates (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D). Clinton has a wide lead at this point.
ReplyDelete