The Electoral College Map (7/13/08) [Update]

As the week progressed, out came several, less controversial polls, which was nice considering that the Zogby polls were the only ones bridging the gap between the pre- and post-4th of July polling. Eleven new polls in eight states further clarified the picture in race for electoral college votes between John McCain and Barack Obama.

New Polls (July 9-12)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research	+13
Florida	War Room Logisitics	+3
Illinois	Rasmussen	+11
Maine	Pan Atlantic SMS	+14
Missouri	Public Policy Polling	+3
Missouri	Rasmussen	+5
Missouri	Research 2000/St. Louis Post-Dispatch	+5
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+3
North Dakota	Rasmussen	+1
Washington	Rasmussen	+8
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+10

And in the first consistent signs that Obama bounced in the polls after his nomination-clinching win in Montana (Yeah, those superdelegates helped too.), there were a handful of polls that show him with good-sized, yet smaller leads in several states where he had been further ahead. Illinois (gasp, Obama's home state), Maine, New Jersey and Washington all showed smaller margins in this group of polls than the ones Obama had enjoyed in late June. Granted, other than Zogby's, there hadn't been a poll in Illinois since February. Regardless of these numbers, Obama's advantage is steady in each: strong in Illinois and Maine, on the line between strong and lean in Washington and firmly within the lean category for New Jersey.

On the McCain side of things, Alabama behaved similarly. A new poll there confirmed a shrinking yet very solid lead for the Arizona senator. It is still noteworthy that two states as similar as Alabama and Mississippi continue to produce such wildly different results. Mississippi has proven to be much closer, though not quite within Obama's grasp (and I don't think it could reasonably be considered to be an Obama state if it was), in the state polling.

While the above performed in line with expectations, the Rasmussen poll in North Dakota--the first new poll in the state since February--confirmed that the state indeed looks to be competitive for the general election (...at least in July). And while the trio of polls out of Missouri provided mixed results--two favoring McCain and one for Obama--that kept the Show-Me state even more firmly within the toss up category (still leaning toward McCain).

Changes (July 9-12)
State	Before	After
Florida	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain

The only change since Wednesday, though, was brought about by the new poll in Florida. That 3 point Obama edge in the War Room Logistics poll nudged FHQ's weighted average under the McCain lean/Toss Up McCain line. And that lowers McCain's total of safer electoral votes (in his strong and lean states) to just 149 while the number of competitive states (both Obama and McCain toss ups) now sum 167. More troubling still, is that Obama's strong category by itself represents more electoral votes (175) than those two categories for McCain. As I said earlier, McCain may be making a dent in Obama's numbers long term (or he may not be--we'll see), but more immediately, his standing--at least in FHQ's analysis--is in decline. The end result is something of a mixed message for both candidates: not quite a maintanence of the status quo, but not a wholesale departure from it either.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

As for the Watch List, Florida remains close to the line between Toss Up and Lean so it stays on for the time being. The new North Dakota poll pushes it even closer to the line between McCain and Obama placing it on the list (for the first time) as well. The only other addition was Wisconsin, which edged closer to the Toss Up/Lean line even with the double digit margin in the Rasmussen poll this week. This hasn't happened often (in fact this is the first time I can remember it occurring), but with the most recent poll being given the most weight, any drop in that number however slight can shift the average (in this case onto the Watch List). Wisconsin was a bit of special case this time anyway. The most recent poll prior to the Rasmussen poll this week was in fact polls not poll. Both the Zogby poll and the Quinnipiac poll had the same survey midpoint (The midpoint of the survey data collection.). As a result they were treated together as the most recent poll--their results averaged together. Shifting both out and replacing them with a smaller margin pushed Wisconsin closer to the line between toss up and lean state for Obama. The recent trend in polling in the Badger state has had Obama ahead by a margin closer to the line between the next two distinctions, lean and strong. That may get a bit more into the internals of the average than most prefer, but in an effort to be at least somewhat transparent, I feel it is necessary to explain the quirks of the average when and if they surface.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Again, we did not get a massive unloading of polling data during the second half of the week, but Survey USA has yet to release any new numbers since before the second day of July. At some point I would expect to see a steady trickle of data, if not a one-time, Zogby-esque release of polling numbers some time soon. That could come this week. And if it does, these 13 states are the ones to look at first.


Recent Posts:
Guam: Why Frontload in the Primaries When You Can Do it in the General Election?

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The Electoral College Map (7/9/08) [Update]