The Electoral College Map (7/20/08) [Update]

Things are starting to settle in to place in the McCain-Obama race, or that has been the mark of the polls during July at least. No poll has come along that has fundamentally changed the averages in any state enough push it from McCain to Obama or vice versa, much less alter its distinction whether favoring the Arizona senator or the Illinois senator. That being said, this is another electoral college breakdown with new data that does little to change what we knew of the landscape prior to when it was revealed. That is not to say that things won't change; I'm of a mind that they will, but as FHQ reader, Scott, pointed out--eloquently, I might add--in the comments to the last electoral college analysis, both McCain and Obama have established national polling ceilings and floors that have remained relatively persistent across polling firms and over time. The interesting thing is that of the ten new polls since last Wednesday, 60% of them represent new data from states currently (Well, formerly in some cases. See below.) on FHQ's Watch List. And even with that much possibility for change nothing happened. Of those six Watch List states, half came off the list and half held firm.

New Polls (July 16-20)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+10
Arkansas	Rasmussen	+13
Kansas	Rasmussen	+23
Maine	Rasmussen	+8
Nevada	Rasmussen	+2
New Jersey	Strategic Vision	+9
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+3
Oregon	Rasmussen	+9
Virginia	Rasmussen	+1
Washington	Survey USA	+16

Watch List aside--at least for now--each candidate had five polls in his favor. And each acted in a manner as to confirm what we already knew about the race for the White House in each state. McCain holds slim leads in the mid/South-Atlantic states and continues to do well in the heartland. Obama, on the other hand, remains strong in traditionally blue states in the northeast and northwest. And while that may be true, the underlying electoral college numbers remain unchanged. Obama continues to maintain a 298-240 electoral vote advantage over McCain with no states shifting categories in either direction.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

As for the Watch List (the list of states most likely to change categories in the event of new polling), Alaska, Oregon and Washigton all come off. Alaska and Oregon became more firmly "lean" states favoring McCain and Obama, respectively while Washigton barely crossed the threshhold to keep it off the list for the time being. Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia just continue to look like toss up states. And that cannot be welcome news for the Arizona senator, since all were carried by Bush four years ago. If just those three states shifted from red to blue with the rest of the 2004 map remaining unchanged, it would be enough to essentially reverse the 286-252 margin that Bush won by over Kerry. Of course, that doesn't include the other Bush 2004 states that are already favoring Obama now.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
South Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

What we know, then, hasn't changed all that much from before. We may be in the midst of a calm before the storm though; a time when everyone is on vacation (at least from the race for the presidency) and not putting too much stock into the race--or less than they did before. So, we have emerged from a period of activity in the polls following Obama's clinching of the Democratic nomination that set the stage for the general election. It will be interesting to track the movement between now and when the conventions kick off following the Olympics. I will be surprised to see any wholesale changes from what has been established up to now prior to that point. There may be some movement on the margins, but nothing earth-shattering.

As I think about this more, I wonder if the excitement surrounding the Democratic nomination race deprived McCain of an opportunity to effectively define Obama in a way that would help him to shift the race in his direction. Some have argued that the Arizona senator missed his chance during late April and through May. At that point, though, it was hard to get a word in a edgewise, much less define the Illinois senator for the fall campaign. Once Obama wrapped things up though, the public--the non-political junkies excluded--largely eschewed the campaign due to fatigue, waiting to pick back up in the fall before the election. If that is the case--that people were wrapped up in the Democratic race and then collectively tired of politics once the nominee had been determined--then we're talking about an environment that, like the other indicators of presidential success, does not favor John McCain. While on the national level, the two are still close, the state level picture gives the edge to Obama currently. And McCain doesn't seem to have a way to reverse this during a typically crucial period (the summer) anytime before the conventions in late August and September.

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