The Electoral College Map (7/27/08)

Well, there's a lot to go over today. The latter half of the week saw a break from the 10 poll norm we had settled into over the course of the last few electoral college breakdowns with a typical amount of polling from Rasmussen (six new polls) in addition to another four swing state polling release from Quinnipiac. In total 17 new polls from 15 states were released since Wednesday. As I have mentioned in previous weeks, there seems to have been a relative settling down of FHQ's weighted averages while at the same time the polls have been fairly volatile (A state like Minnesota comes to mind. Results out of the North Star state have ranged anywhere from a 2 to 18 point lead for Obama recently.). And that pattern is continued with this new polling.

New Polls (July 23-26)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
California	Rasmussen	+10/+12
Colorado	Quinnipiac	+2
Colorado	Frederick	+4
Florida	Rasmussen	+2/+1
Maine	Critical Insights	+20
Michigan	Quinnipiac	+4
Minnesota	Quinnipiac	+2
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+13/+12
Mississippi	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+9
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	+4/+6
New Jersey	Gannett	+14
New Mexico	Rasmussen	+6/+5
North Dakota	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+3
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+6/+5
South Carolina	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+13
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+2
Wisconsin	Quinnipiac	+11

One thing you will notice that is different about the New Polls table is that all the information from Rasmussen is included: both "with leaners" and "without leaners" results. And I should note that I'll continue to use the "with leaners" data to compile the information for our electoral college maps. Fret not, though. I plan on regularly updating the differences in those two numbers from Rasmussen and will chart those changes on a separate map as warranted. The map "with leaners" will continue to be the official FHQ electoral college map, though. As of now the only change from using either set of numbers continues to be Ohio. The map below (with leaners) shows the Buckeye state's 20 electoral votes going to McCain. When the leaners are excluded, Obama takes an equally narrow lead. That is the only case where a state's electoral votes change hands or categories.

...for now. Additional future polling could--and probably will--change that.

Changes (July 23-26)
State	Before	After
South Carolina	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean

All those polls and the only change is South Carolina moving more solidly toward McCain into the Arizona senator's lean category. The last time South Carolina shifted was following the Zogby poll that gave Obama a one point edge in the Palmetto state. As I said then, I didn't really think of South Carolina as or expect it to necessarily be an Obama state come early November. I said then, and I still maintain, that South Carolina is a state that Obama can improve upon past Democratic nominee's performances, but to win it would be a tremendous coup, not to mention an indication that Obama has won a landslide victory. Even when the Zogby poll is omitted, South Carolina remains a McCain lean. This is due in large part to the fact that this most recent Research 2000 poll in the Palmetto state is the only one to place the race outside of the single digit range. This poll, then, acts to pull the average here back into the range where we would expect South Carolina to be.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Let's talk about landslides for a minute. An Obama victory that includes South Carolina may be considered a landslide but that characterization may be an exaggeration depending upon how landslide is defined. If you rank the states for each candidate (1 through 51) based on the states' current averages South Carolina would rank 34 on Obama's list. On the current map McCain has 26 states and 260 electoral votes while Obama holds leads in 24 states (and the District of Columbia) totalling 278 electoral votes. If South Carolina is the last state on the list that Obama is able to pick off from McCain (and assuming the Illinois senator wins the states between South Carolina and where his list of states ends), he would gain 101 electoral votes (That's a group of states that includes all thoes above shaded in pink and Alaska.) on the total in the map above. His advantage over McCain in that scenario would be 379-159, a margin comparable to Bill Clinton's 1992 electoral college win over the first president Bush (370-168). Was 1992 a landslide? Maybe. Maybe not. Compared to both Reagan blowouts or Nixon's thrashing of Mondale in 1972, that doesn't look so bad. But compared to the tight margins of the 2000 and 2004, it could be portrayed as such in November by the media. Is such a scenario likely? No, but I suppose it is possible.

The reality of the situation now is that this appears to be a pretty close election given the current state of the polls and where most handicappers have things pegged currently (Though this appears to be up for debate. See the discussion between Abramowitz, Mann and Sabato and Campbell.). Obama has a lead, but not an insurmountable one. By our calculations, that margin is but 18 electoral votes, 278-260. During the latter half of this past week, McCain shifted South Carolina's 8 electoral votes into his lean category. And while that brings the Arizona senator total between strong and lean states to 157, that number still falls shy of Obama's stong total of 175. It should be noted, however, that the Obama's lean and toss up electoral vote totals are both currently hovering around 50. The Illinois senator has a solid coalition of states put together, but there still may be work to do putting together a winning combination. All of those (both light blue and blue) states are state where McCain is challenging Obama.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

And the Watch List? Well, North Dakota, South Carolina and Wisconsin have exited. The first is firmly within the toss up category, but favors McCain enough that new (and negative to McCain) polling won't necessarily move North Dakota into Obama territory. South Carolina, after a brief stay in the toss up category, is now firmly within the McCain lean area. And Wisconsin edges above the cut off point, but solidly within the Obama lean category. New Mexico is the only addition to the list. The Land of Enchantment's weighted average has been around 6 points (similar to Wisconsin) for a while now. Recently, it has been just above six, but with the new poll (Rasmussen +6) comes in just under that line. And that puts it on the watch. Essentially, Wisconsin and New Mexico switched places.

I'll be back later today with an updated look at the recent Rasmussen numbers and some other stuff too.


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