| New Polls (Aug. 20-24) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Cronkite/ASU | +10 | |
| Arizona | Mason-Dixon | +6 | |
| California | Rasmussen | +13/+14 | |
| Colorado | Mason-Dixon | +3 | |
| Colorado | Zogby Interactive | +6 | |
| Colorado | Quinnipiac | +1 | |
| Florida | ARG | +1 | |
| Florida | Zogby Interactive | +3 | |
| Indiana | Rasmussen | +6/+4 | |
| Kansas | Survey USA | +23 | |
| Maryland | Rasmussen | +10/+12 | |
| Michigan | Zogby Interactive | +9 | |
| Michigan | Selzer | +7 | |
| Minnesota | Minnesota Public Radio | +10 | |
| Mississippi | Rasmussen | +13/+13 | |
| Missouri | Public Policy Polling | +10 | |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon | +6 | |
| Nevada | Zogby Interactive | +1 | |
| Nevada | Research 2000 | +1 | |
| New Hampshire | Zogby Interactive | +4 | |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen | +1/+1 | |
| New Hampshire | ARG | +1 | |
| New Mexico | Mason-Dixon | +4 | |
| New Mexico | Zogby Interactive | +9 | |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen | +4/+6 | |
| North Carolina | Zogby Interactive | +8 | |
| North Carolina | Insider Advantage | +2 | |
| Ohio | Zogby Interactive | +5 | |
| Pennsylvania | Zogby Interactive | +9 | |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | +3/+5 | |
| Tennessee | Rasmussen | +25/+24 | |
| Utah | Mason-Dixon | +39 | |
| Virginia | Public Policy Polling | +2 | |
| Virginia | Zogby Interactive | +2 | |
| Wyoming | Mason-Dixon | +37 | |
However, despite being inundated with new data, little changed. Surprisingly, Nevada, which has been so close to a tie lately, did not shift into McCain territory even with that 6 point Mason-Dixon margin included. For every 6 point margin there, -- in either direction -- there are three polls that show it as a race that is within 3 or fewer points. In other words, the underlying message on Nevada is that the Silver state is a statistical dead heat, given the margin of error in these polls. Since May there have been eight polls conducted in the state and two have shown six point McCain leads -- the most recent one and the oldest one in that group -- but the other six have resulted in smaller gaps in the results within the margin of error. Nevada, then, is the most closely contested race according to FHQ's metric. But Ohio is not far behind (Neither, for that matter, is Virginia, but I'll hold of on the Old Dominion for the time being.). In fact, as I alluded to in my look at the August polling trends, Ohio shifted back in the direction of the Illinois senator based on the inclusion of the 5 point advantage last weekend's Zogby Interactive poll showed in the Buckeye state. Some have issues with the methodolgy behind Zogby's online polls, but even if those two results -- the one in June and current one -- were changed to exact ties, McCain would only barely take the lead by just under a quarter of a point. The positive is that the poll is not the most recent -- Rasmussen's poll of the Buckeye state is -- so it isn't being given that extra amount of weight that the most recent poll is. And the back and forth in Ohio only further cements it as one of the closest races. But that isn't terribly groundbreaking news.
| Changes (Aug. 20-24) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Toss Up McCain | Toss Up Obama | |
Nevada and Ohio, then, along with Virginia represent a trio of states which are all within a quarter of a point of being a tie/switching sides and all three will factor heavily into the electoral math of each candidate. And though Obama has a nice cushion "strong" state electoral votes (165 EVs), the back and forth of any of those three can change that outlook quickly. Obama could lose all three and scrape out 273 electoral votes, but if all three go to McCain, that certainly calls into question the direction the overall momentum is going in to bring about that result. If those three are all going for McCain, for example, are other swings states moving too?
[Click Map to Enlarge]And the Electoral College Spectrum gives us a glimpse into the tenuous lead (even though it is 58 EVs) Obama holds at the moment. The Illinois senator has an advantage in all of the states through Nevada, but tightening polls there and in Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio mean that the job isn't finished -- not that the Obama campaign thought it was. Then again, the perception is that generic Democrat X should/would be well ahead of the generic GOP counterpart and that raises ever so slighty the bar for Obama.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | WA-11 (165) | CO-9*** (269/278) | AK-3 (373/168) | KS-6 (64) |
| VT-3 (10) | MN-10 (175) | NH-4*** (273/269) | MO-11 (384/165) | ID-4 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | DE-3 (178) | OH-20 (293/265) | SC-8 (154) | NE-5 (54) |
| IL-21 (35) | OR-7 (185) | NV-5 (298/245) | SD-3 (146) | AR-6 (49) |
| CT-7 (42) | NJ-15 (200) | VA-13 (311/240) | TX-34 (143) | TN-11 (43) |
| ME-4 (46) | IA-7 (207) | ND-3 (314/227) | GA-15 (109) | KY-8 (32) |
| MD-10 (56) | WI-10 (217) | MT-3 (317/224) | MS-6 (94) | AL-9 (24) |
| CA-55 (111) | NM-5 (222) | NC-15 (332/221) | WV-5 (88) | OK-7 (15) |
| NY-31 (142) | MI-17 (239/316) | IN-11 (343/206) | AZ-10 (83) | WY-3 (8) |
| MA-12 (154) | PA-21 (260/299) | FL-27 (370/195) | LA-9 (73) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The quirk of this iteration of the Spectrum is that it brings the 269-269 tie possibility into focus. Due to the rank ordering of states, the Victory Line is at a point wedged between Colorado and New Hampshire. Both candidates then, would have to pick up both those states in order to surpass 270 electoral votes. As it stands now, Obama has an edge in all the states to the left of Nevada -- including both Colorado and New Hampshire. That means that McCain would have to pick off not only Nevada and Ohio but Colorado and New Hampshire as well to get to 270. That isn't an insurmountable task, but it is a byproduct of Pennsylvania moving toward Obama. And that causes McCain to have to work in more states, not that the Arizona senator isn't already. That doesn't change the fact that having to go after more states is a more difficult task than getting more total electoral votes in one place like Pennsylvania. There has been some talk out there that Pennsylvania native and currently Delaware senator, Joe Biden, will help Obama lock up Pennsylvania. That may come to pass, but it was probably already good that the Keystone state was heading in the direction of Obama.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Georgia | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| Minnesota | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Mississippi | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Washington | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Wisconsin | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Finally, while the three close states mentioned above, remain on the Watch List, the list was trimmed by a couple of notable states this time around. Both North Carolina and Florida inched closer to Obama given the new polls while remaining slight leans to McCain. Minnesota also rejoined the list based on the 10 point margin in the latest MPR poll, but just barely.
I'll be back later with an update of the pre-convention August polling shifts. In the meantime, get ready for convention season.
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I take that to mean that Colorado and New Hampshire are tied. Oh wait - never mind. One is the tipping point for a tie, the other the tipping point for a win. I suppose anyone who considers 269 electoral votes a win for Obama can consider Colorado the tipping point. (And here I was marking states on 270towin before I noticed that you had the vote totals in the graphic. I had forgotten about that.)
ReplyDeleteDemocrats must be happy that their convention is in Colorado this year!
That's right Jack.
ReplyDeleteI'll explain more in the actual analysis. It is a bit ambiguous now.
The convention location won't hurt the Democrats. It may not pay the dividends they ultimately want, but it won't hurt them.
Back in a bit.
It won't help a lot but it might help energize the grassroots a bit, as well as giving extra positive exposure to Obama in Colorado. Even if all that is only worth a small number of votes, Colorado is so important and so close that that could be huge.
ReplyDeleteHey, it's leaning toward him now. That's a good start. I certainly don't want to minimize the importance of Colorado to the Obama campaign. The ECS shows us that. It may prove necessary and something as isolated as where the convention was held may prove beneficial enough in retrospect.
ReplyDelete