| New Polls (Sept. 27) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Rasmussen | +8 | |
| Louisiana | Rasmussen | +15 | |
But there's one state for each candidate there. Obama maintains a heavy lean in Iowa. With the line here between the strong category and the lean category now at a nine point margin, Iowa is on the verge of joining the Watch List. [It is within a tenth of a point of moving up.] And for a state that some considered a toss up heading into the contest -- a number that is dwindling significantly over time, yet still has some among its ranks -- it just doesn't look like Hawkeye state is going to be all that close in 2008. For McCain, Louisiana remains a safe state. There have been blips of upper single digit margins along the way, but the Pelican state has never seemed to have been in doubt.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Needless to say the map remains unchanged with the addition of the two new Rasmussen polls. Obama remains ahead 273-265 and given the way some of the daily tracker are going these days, that seems a bit too close perhaps. This, however, is still a race that is comprised of 50 different elections. If the state polls start to move in a direction similar to what we are witnessing in most of the national polls, then those pink states all of a sudden look pretty good for Obama again.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | CO-9*** (269/278) | ND-3 (160) | KS-6 (64) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | NH-4*** (273/269) | WV-5 (157) | AR-6 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | NV-5 (278/265) | AK-3 (152) | NE-5 (52) |
| IL-21 (35) | IA-7 (182) | VA-13 (291/260) | TX-34 (149) | TN-11 (47) |
| MD-10 (45) | MN-10 (192) | OH-20 (311/247) | GA-15 (115) | KY-8 (36) |
| DE-3 (48) | NJ-15 (207) | IN-11 (322/227) | SC-8 (100) | AL-9 (28) |
| CT-7 (55) | NM-5 (212) | FL-27 (349/216) | SD-3 (92) | WY-3 (19) |
| NY-31 (86) | WI-10 (222) | MO-11 (360/189) | MS-6 (89) | OK-7 (16) |
| CA-55 (141) | MI-17 (239/316) | NC-15 (178) | AZ-10 (83) | ID-4 (9) |
| MA-12 (153) | PA-21 (260/299) | MT-3 (163) | LA-9 (73) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells. | ||||
Nevada and Ohio were the most recent states to move in to the pink and are, with Virginia, the most likely to shift back into Obama territory. But the preceptions of the race have certainly changed since the period immediately following the conventions. Instead of talking about how far McCain may push into Obama territory, we're back to where we were in the time before the conventions talking about Obama swing some of those pink states. Florida and North Carolina (though the latter is a lean state) have closed considerably in recent polling. If Ohio and Florida, much lesss North Carolina, are states McCain is having to defend with all he's got, then the Arizona senator is in real trouble coming down the stretch in this race.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Michigan | from Toss Up Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| North Carolina | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Oregon | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Virginia | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Washington | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Some of our loyal readers already think he is. And you have to admit that the paths to electoral college victory are limited in number at this point for McCain. Some of these battleground states are close enough now that the electoral college is close too. But how will state-level polls begin interpreting the events of Friday night? That will be the big question moving forward.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)
Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate
Who You Callin' Underpolled?
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