I'm not one to steal my own thunder, but...
As I sit here awaiting Pollster's addition of the third party-included numbers from the latest series of CNN polls, it looks like Florida will shift into Obama territory in tonight's update of FHQ's electoral college analysis. Assuming Nevada holds pat (and today's Insider Advantage poll of the Silver state isn't hurting), Obama's tally will rise to 338 electoral votes.
The move in the Sunshine state comes on the strength of three new polls out today.
Datamar: Obama +5
Insider Advantage: Obama +4
CNN: Obama +5 (two-party breakdown)
Obama +3 (with third parties included)
UPDATE: Ever reliable FiveThirtyEight.com was able to provide the numbers with the third party candidates included. That three point margin was just (and I mean just) enough to push the Sunshine state into the blue.
I'll be back tonight with more on this and an open thread/live blog for the debate. Until then, the comment section is open. If you haven't already please visit the electoral college post from Monday and weigh in on Scott's question about the turning points in this year's campaign.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
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