For tonight's update, the thresholds between categories will be lowered to reflect the fact that there are just 18 days until the election. In other words, there will likely be some changes to the map that are a function of the switch and not a fundamental shift in FHQ's methodology.
That's the reminder. And the note?
Well, I've been looking at some of the Bradley/Wilder effect data today and will hopefully have a post up concerning that over the weekend. I could probably get that out tonight, but with the switch from the line drop, it may be a bit too much scenario analysis. As such I'll separate the two and get the Bradley/Wilder effect post out later in the weekend. Hopefully I've caught enough people before they've headed out the door for the weekend.
There will be some other changes to the map tonight as well. But I'll make you come back to see those.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
4 comments:
Eagerly awaiting the polling update. I'm starting to have dreams about this site, and last night it was that you posted a Rhode Island poll showing McCain up by 2, and you felt Rhode Island could be competative. Please reassure me that that isn't true.
Jack,
Rhode Island at +2 for McCain was a dream? That sounds like more of a nightmare from your perspective.
I don't think it's true, but let me check.
...
Yeah, it is true. There is a 30 point Bradley/Wilder effect at work in the Ocean state.
Wow. I had no idea that the first state to outlaw slavery was filled with closet racists. I didn't know it was the first state to outlaw slavery until I read it just now, either.
Please tell me that there's some sort of 50 point "reverse Bradley Effect" in Utah.
Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333
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