I told you guys about Nevada. All Along, of the 5 tightest states according to your charts that you and I predicted Obama to win (NV CO VA OH FL)I kept saying that Obama will win Nevada by the biggest margin and then Colorado next, and it turned out Nevada by 12% Colorado by 7%. I also said Ohio and Virginia would show similar results to each other with Virginia slightly bigger margin, yep Virginia 5% Ohio 4%. Most of the pundits were predicting a blowout in Virginia and I warned that Virginia would be tighter.
The only surprise to me is Indiana and we will see about North Carolina.
Bottom line, the republican party needs to start standing up for and showing that they are for the white middle class economically and be firmly socially conservative (against abortion, gay marriage, illegal immigration, affirmative action ect.) and they need to stop being an interventionist in foreign policy.
Very sad that our government is now communist/socialist.
David Frum (not exactly a socialist as he wrote the Axis of Evil speech for GWB)said this morning on NPR that the Republicans lost ethnic minorities and college-educated whites in this election. He said that to win the next election that they need to get a majority of one of those two groups. Matthew Dowd (another Bushie) indicated that the Republicans lost the two groups that are expanding in numbers (Hispanics and the under 30 crowd). I don't think greater emphasis on social conservatism is going to help the Republicans with any of those four groups. Non-interventionism is something that will help as long as we are not attacked by outside forces. I agree that GWB messed up big time with the Iraq War.
Those 2 people that you mention are neoconservatives, who are what is wrong with the republican party. Neoconservatives are former liberal democrats from the 60's flower power era who didn't like the hard left shift of the democrat party at that time, so they switched over to the republican party. They are opportunists who destroyed the republican party.
If you look at the upper midwest, states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, those are states that the republican party could get if they take my advice that I mentioned in my above post. Plus Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, would go back to being republican. And they might pick off Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
And Frum also indicated that the college educated whites would be the future target. Which seemed weird to me. I can see that helping in the short term, but I don't know that that is a long term strategy.
You know what? All that stuff that has gone through my head in the last 24+ hours and that fact about Missouri did not occur to me. Then again, I may be able to chalk that up to lack of sleep. Maybe.
The future direction of the Republican party is a fascinating open question. I think the recent Republican coalition is gone--no way social conservatives and libertarians want to stay in the same tent, or neoconservatives and non-interventionists, or big business and Reagan Democrats. Those kinds of coalitions only work as long as the party is winning; if they lose, people go back to their corners.
College-educated whites is a possible long-term strategy--that's a demographic that's been steadily growing over the years, as the rate of higher-education goes up and up. (The percentage growth isn't as big as college-educated minorities, though!) That change is part of what won this election for Obama--too many people now think of themselves as intellectual to make an anti-intellectual campaign safe.
(Robert: I do think social conservatism has some appeal to Latinos, incidentally.)
Oh, and credit where credit is due: anonymous did correctly and persistently call the race quite accurately.
Good point, Scott, about social conservatism and Latinos. It also appeals to the African-American community. Latinos are not going to vote their social conservatism while overlooking anti-immigrant rhetoric. Likewise, African-Americans are more interested in gaining access to society and vote accordingly.
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I told you guys about Nevada.
ReplyDeleteAll Along, of the 5 tightest states according to your charts that you and I predicted Obama to win (NV CO VA OH FL)I kept saying that Obama will win Nevada by the biggest margin and then Colorado next, and it turned out Nevada by 12% Colorado by 7%.
I also said Ohio and Virginia would show similar results to each other with Virginia slightly bigger margin, yep Virginia 5% Ohio 4%.
Most of the pundits were predicting a blowout in Virginia and I warned that Virginia would be tighter.
The only surprise to me is Indiana and we will see about North Carolina.
Bottom line, the republican party needs to start standing up for and showing that they are for the white middle class economically and be firmly socially conservative (against abortion, gay marriage, illegal immigration, affirmative action ect.) and they need to stop being an interventionist in foreign policy.
Very sad that our government is now communist/socialist.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteDavid Frum (not exactly a socialist as he wrote the Axis of Evil speech for GWB)said this morning on NPR that the Republicans lost ethnic minorities and college-educated whites in this election. He said that to win the next election that they need to get a majority of one of those two groups. Matthew Dowd (another Bushie) indicated that the Republicans lost the two groups that are expanding in numbers (Hispanics and the under 30 crowd). I don't think greater emphasis on social conservatism is going to help the Republicans with any of those four groups. Non-interventionism is something that will help as long as we are not attacked by outside forces. I agree that GWB messed up big time with the Iraq War.
Robert
ReplyDeleteThose 2 people that you mention are neoconservatives, who are what is wrong with the republican party.
Neoconservatives are former liberal democrats from the 60's flower power era who didn't like the hard left shift of the democrat party at that time, so they switched over to the republican party.
They are opportunists who destroyed the republican party.
If you look at the upper midwest, states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, those are states that the republican party could get if they take my advice that I mentioned in my above post.
Plus Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, would go back to being republican.
And they might pick off Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
And Frum also indicated that the college educated whites would be the future target. Which seemed weird to me. I can see that helping in the short term, but I don't know that that is a long term strategy.
ReplyDeleteHere's link to that discussion on NPR this morning.
The Missouri Bellweather is dead.
ReplyDeleteYou know what? All that stuff that has gone through my head in the last 24+ hours and that fact about Missouri did not occur to me. Then again, I may be able to chalk that up to lack of sleep. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteThe future direction of the Republican party is a fascinating open question. I think the recent Republican coalition is gone--no way social conservatives and libertarians want to stay in the same tent, or neoconservatives and non-interventionists, or big business and Reagan Democrats. Those kinds of coalitions only work as long as the party is winning; if they lose, people go back to their corners.
ReplyDeleteCollege-educated whites is a possible long-term strategy--that's a demographic that's been steadily growing over the years, as the rate of higher-education goes up and up. (The percentage growth isn't as big as college-educated minorities, though!) That change is part of what won this election for Obama--too many people now think of themselves as intellectual to make an anti-intellectual campaign safe.
(Robert: I do think social conservatism has some appeal to Latinos, incidentally.)
Oh, and credit where credit is due: anonymous did correctly and persistently call the race quite accurately.
Good point, Scott, about social conservatism and Latinos. It also appeals to the African-American community. Latinos are not going to vote their social conservatism while overlooking anti-immigrant rhetoric. Likewise, African-Americans are more interested in gaining access to society and vote accordingly.
ReplyDelete