- Have you voted? If not, when will you?
- What are your predictions?
- What state will be a surprise win for Obama? ...for McCain?
Recent Posts:
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition
Alright folks. The long haul ends today. [Well, the action that will trigger the end is over tonight. The ultimate decision make take a while to emerge.] While you wait on the new map -- and I'll likely have two out today -- I thought I'd open it up for people to weigh in with their thoughts on this election day morning.
Recent Posts:
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
Recent Posts:
An Election Night Scenario Analysis
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)
FHQ vs. The Talking Heads
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13 comments:
Going to leave to vote for McCain, Peter King, and all the other Republicans in a few minutes.
Predictions: Obama wins in a landslide with 364 electoral votes, Democrats pick up 59 senate seats (with a runoff in Georgia to be won by Chambliss when it is held) and 262 congressional seats.
If there's a surprise win for Obama, it will be Montana. If there's a surprise win for McCain it will be Pennsylvania.
I voted absentee, for Obama, a while back.
Here are my predictions:
I predict that Obama wins the popular vote 53.8-45.2
I predict Obama will receive 364 electoral votes (Kerry states + Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Missouri.
I predict the democrats will gain 8Senate seats (Va, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina and Oregon.
I predict the democrats will gain 25 house seats.
I voted last Thursday. First time for a major party candidate.
Prediction: Obama 349. Dems don't capture the filibuster pivot.
- Robi
I agree with annon...Dems won't get to 60...57-58
I am preparing for a meeting, will try and vote before, just got word that the lines are not too long at my precinct. If not then, then after lunch (b/w 2-3, the other lull).
I predict Obama win (although not my state-AL!), 52-46 ish.
I'm saying at least 322 EVs including CO, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA and this week I'm leaning towards FL for 349, so I'll go ahead and say that.
Obama Surprise (I can't count a toss-up/battle ground as a surprise BTW because there is potential that we have seen), so I'll go out on a limb and say AR, and the pundits will say they are too nostalgic for Clinton!
Mc surprise...hmm AZ :) no really, I agree with Jack, the only surprise that will matter for him would be PA.
I voted this morning, and while I've given my prediction at DCW, I've gotten cold feet on Indiana now and think it will go for McCain after all.
So with that modification, I've got:
383 Total Electoral Votes
Obama (CO, FL, GA, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA)
McCain (IN, ND, WV)
Obama 54.8%, McCain 43.3%
I'm also projecting one of the Nebraska districts for Obama.
The most likely surprise win for Obama is Georgia.
The most likely surprise win for McCain is probably Virginia, although I expect Obama to win it. (I don't consider any of the toss-ups to qualify as a "surprise" regardless of which way they go).
Just got back from the polls, and for some reason I changed my mind and voted for Obama and all the other Democrats.
I should clarify that my 364 EV prediction had Obama winning MO, not IN.
Off to phonebank!
* I voted this morning on the way to work. There was no wait at all in my precinct. Of course it helps that I live in NC, where something like 40% of registered voters used early voting.
Predictions: I'm calling it Obama 326, McCain 212. Take the FHQ map, move NC to Obama (just a gut feeling from what I'm seeing in various parts of the state), and move Florida to McCain (I generally think the Bradley effect is overplayed, but in an elderly-heavy state like Florida it could be for real).
In the Senate, the Democrats gets 57 seats, not counting Jeffries and Lieberman. Since adding both of them doesn't take them to 60, they refuse to let Lieberman play with them, giving them 58 seats.
I don't predict any surprises. The "barely" states might fall on the unexpected side of the line, but like Scott said, that's not really a surprise. *IF* there is a surprise, it will be either Pennsylvania or North Dakota, but I sincerely doubt it in both cases.
SD,
I thought you were from South Dakota!
Seriously though, where are you in NC? I've got several people on the ground in the state and I'd like to get the impressions of people in as many parts of the state as I can. As a native North Carolinian, I'm interested in the first competitive presidential election there in my lifetime.
Thanks.
I voted two weeks ago. The most reasonable estimate I have seen is the FHQ/ Karl Rove projection. I don't think there are going to be any big upsets although McCain could pick up FL and Obama could win NC.
I was surprised at my candidate pandering for the College Football crowd last night with the playoff scenario. I am adamantly opposed to a national playoff in college football -- I like the bowl system just the way it is. I don't think I would have been a gamechanger for me, though, if I had heard about it earlier!
I have absolutely no idea how to take that comment, Rob. Is being lumped in with Karl Rove a compliment, an insult or something in between?
Ha! I had my 338-200 up before he did. Petty, petty. I will say I likened my electoral vote counting to his in the "Batcave" at the White House four years ago.
Josh,
Just a little dig. Actually, Karl maybe a secret admirer who checks out your site before making his projections.
BTW I made my FL and NC comments before I saw what s.d. had predicted. It looks like we think alike.
I'm leaving shortly to vote for Obama and Martin.
I expect 364 for Obama to 174 for McCain. I think NC will go for Obama and MO - they almost always vote for the eventual winner.
Indiana, or North Dakota might be a surprise for Obama. I really don't expect a McCain surprise in PA.
The Democrats combined with the 2 independents should hold 59 seats after today. Chambliss and Martin will go into a runoff here in GA. Chambliss will be heavily favored, but a strong GOTV effort might help Martin in a year with weak GOP enthusiasm.
Josh,
I live in Garner (for the non-Tarheels reading this, that's a suburb of Raleigh). But I'm not basing my feelings just on what I'm seeing here (we both know the Triangle is much bluer than the rest of the state). I've done some driving through redder areas and have some friends living in reffer areas, and they're looking much more competitive.
(As I write this Obama has shot up to something like 61% of the vote in NC, but based on other results I'd say that's largely because more blue precincts than red have reported.)
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