[Click to Enlarge]The Deeds' post-primary victory boost seems to have peaked. After handily defeating his Democratic primary opponents, Virginia state senator, Creigh Deeds, jumped past his Republican counterpart, Bob McDonnell, in the polling of the Virginia gubernatorial race, but has remained virtually stationary in the (scant) polling conducted since that immediate, after-primary period. In fact, other than the Rasmussen poll that was in the field the day after the primary, Deeds has been at either 43 or 44 points in every poll since the May 22 Washington Post endorsement (other than the Daily Kos poll that was in the field just prior to, during and after the June 2 primary). [As you can see in the graph below, McDonnell has ever so slightly stretched his lead from the last update and has pulled ahead since Deeds surged to the lead following his win in the primary.]
The real story, then, seems to be McDonnell's approaching that 50% mark FHQ has been discussing in the New Jersey race. The new Public Policy Polling poll out for the race has McDonnell ahead 49-43 and that keeps Deeds just within the 4 point margin of error for the survey. Sure, this is just one poll, but McDonnell's ability to stay at or around that mark, puts the onus on Deeds and the DNC to turn this race around. Regardless, this poll doesn't particularly change the long-term outlook. The race still "feels" like a toss up with a slight lean toward McDonnell at this point. And in that case, turnout becomes highly important. If Democrats can remain as enthused as they were throughout 2008, that likely helps, but if not, this becomes McDonnell's and the Republican Party's race to lose.
In any event, there is quite a bit of time between now and November. This one should continue to be a tight one.
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What is the margin of error in this poll?
ReplyDelete4%, so the spread is just within the margin.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it a little too early to call the race then no matter which one of them is approaching 50%?
ReplyDeleteYes, it is too early. But other than my "feels like" comment, I can't see where I called the race. Like I said, it just seems like a toss up with a lean toward McDonnell at this point.
ReplyDeleteOK, I was too harsh, but I don't see how the 50% mark is meaningful when the poll is within the margin of error, particularly this early in the race when any bombshell can drastically change the race. Not that we have seen any political bombshells this year.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. My point here, and as it is probably better described in the New Jersey examples, is that the ability to maintain that 50% level of support is important. But maintaining that level is certainly easier said than done.
ReplyDelete...especially if any bomb was to drop in either of these gubernatorial races.