State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

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Word of this poll came out prior to the first debate of the New Jersey governors race, but still, following that debate where independent candidate, Chris Daggett stole the show, this can't be good news for the Christie campaign. The Republican is increasingly coming back to the pack and a visible alternative can only serve to potentially split the anti-incumbent/anti-Corzine vote. Is Corzine in the clear, though? No, but the governor did manage to break the 40% barrier which has to be seen as partially positive. After all, if Daggett ends up with around 10% of the vote on November 3, then the race is to 45. 42% is better, but Christie is still closer at 46%

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Sept. 28-30, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	42	46	7	5

But Corzine isn't really at 42%. He is in this poll, but he has certainly been underperforming that mark in all but a few polls throughout all of 2009 and hasn't really been to that height recently. FHQ still has the incumbent Democrat in the same 38% range, but he is inching upward while Christie is sliding. If the race continues on this current trajectory, it is going to, as seems to be the case given recent polling in the Virginia race, be about turnout. And given the Democratic bent of the Garden state that's good news at Drumthwacket.

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