State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/16/09)

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It's Debate Day #2 in New Jersey and a new New York Times poll of the gubernatorial race in the Garden state shows once again that the race is dead even between incumbent Governor Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie. The Times poll is another instance, however, of Corzine gaining the lead; something we've have seen happen now several times since October began. Not to be overshadowed, independent candidate Chris Daggett has once again pulled support in the mid-teens. And Daggett likely shouldn't be placed on the back burner considering it is a debate day (He did very well in the first debate. In fact, that seems to be what triggered his rise into the mid- to upper teens in October polling.) and that there are whispers floating around about a Michael Bloomberg endorsement in the race. Now, it is anything but certain that Bloomberg would come out in favor of Daggett, but that type of high-profile endorsement (especially from someone talked about last year as a third party presidential candidate), along with the Newark Star-Ledger's endorsement last weekend, certainly wouldn't hurt the efforts of the independent candidate.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
New York Times [pdf]	Oct. 9-14, 2009	+/- 5%	475 likely voters	40	37	14	9

The Times poll, though, isn't the most recent poll out there (the Rasmussen poll released yesterday is the most recently conducted poll in the race) and as such doesn't receive the full weight afforded to the most recent poll. Still, the survey had the effect of dropping Chris Christie's graduated weighted average even further under the 45% mark. Meanwhile, Corzine is flirting with 39% again and Daggett is rapidly approaching double digit support. And as the independent rises, Christie falls, bringing the margin between the two major party candidates under six points for the first time since FHQ began tracking this race. We've said that a lot lately, and if polls continue to show a statistical tie, we'll continue to see and talk about that margin contracting. And with a debate this evening, there is another opportunity on the table for a very tight race to be shaken up.

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