State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/29/09)

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The race for governor in Virginia is a lot like Michigan in last year's presidential race after the McCain campaign decided to cut their losses and spend their time and money in other states: It isn't any fun when it isn't competitive. Sure, there was some hope that we'd be treated to a close race when the thesis news broke and sunk in about a week or so later. That, though, came a bit too early for Deeds and ended up being a false front anyway. The thesis contributed to this to some degree in that it sidetracked the Deeds campaign for a while, but they never developed a tight message around and/or beyond that one thing to sustain them. So when the thesis effect wore off, Deeds didn't have anything to fall back on. Such is life on the campaign trail.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Roanoke College	Oct. 21-27, 2009	+/- 4.1%	569 likely voters	39	55	6

Despite the fact that we know there is a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll floating around out there, FHQ cannot incorporate it into the averages in this race without the full information of the poll. Mainly, without the date the poll was conducted, we can't construct the weight that would be applied to it. When that information is made available we will update the averages accordingly.

In that poll's absence, however, there was but one survey released today. Roanoke College, like many other recent polls, found Bob McDonnell topping the 55% mark; the fourth poll of the last five to have him at or above that level (And the fifth found him at 54%.). While McDonnell is heading up, Deeds is heading down. Well, his decrease doesn't appear to be at as high a rate as McDonnell's increase, so it basically looks as if the Democrat is leveling out and shifting downward slightly. Again, that really isn't a position you want to be in during the final week of the race.

Adding in this one poll shifts McDonnell up to 51.4%, a new high water mark for the former attorney general of the Commonwealth, but also moves Deeds down below 41% for the first time since FHQ began examining this race. Where does that leave us? Well, the state of this race is red and not competitive.

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/28/09)