Sunday, November 22, 2009

Des Moines Register Poll: 2012 GOP Candidate Favorability

FHQ likes how the Des Moines Register raised the alert a few weeks ago about the potential 2012 Republican candidates not coming to the state and now has a poll out concerning the prospects chances in the Hawkeye state's 2012 caucus. It is strange to juxtapose the overall numbers among all Iowans and then leave the "only Republicans" numbers for the footnote at the bottom of the graphic. Huckabee's well-liked overall and among Republicans. Sarah Palin, meanwhile, has cornered the market on opinion. Everyone has one about her; well, except for just 8% of all Iowans. Still, that's the lowest among all the candidates in the question. On the other end of the spectrum from Palin, though, are Pawlenty, Jindal and Pataki. All three have a lot of room to grow in Iowa since nearly three quarters of Iowans are unsure of who they are or how favorable they are of them.

[Click to Enlarge]

Of course, the main thrust of the write up in the Register was about Sarah Palin. While she doesn't do as well among Republicans (in terms of favorability) as Mike Huckabee, the former Alaska governor does top Arkansas' former chief executive among conservatives. And last but not least, the Register tells us that Palin's favorability numbers are not unlike those of Hillary Clinton when she was setting out to run ahead of 2008 (opinion had solidified on both). But is that really the analogy they want to draw? Clinton did end up finishing third in Iowa behind Obama and Edwards.

The bottom line? Palin has a steep climb even in a state that some have thought she'd seriously battle Huckabee for in 2012?

UPDATE (as per AKReport's request -- FHQ should have included it. Thanks.):
Margin of Error: +/- 4.2%
Sample: 800 Iowans
Conducted: November 8-11, 2009 (pre-Palin book release)


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8 comments:

  1. Simple thoughtsNovember 23, 2009 at 12:08 AM

    whats the date of this poll?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Simple thoughtsNovember 23, 2009 at 12:14 AM

    ok so the poll was taken Nov. 8-11

    Before her book tour.

    ReplyDelete
  3. RobertNovember 23, 2009 at 10:07 AM

    Gingrich's numbers are impressive for someone who has been out of politics since 96 leaving with very high negatives. If you subtract the unfavorables from the favorables in the Iowa poll, Gingrich and Romney are tied for second with 8% behind Huckabee's 32%.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Josh PutnamNovember 23, 2009 at 12:45 PM

    Just for fun, let's use the Rasmussen method (very favorable minus very unfavorable), Rob:

    Huckabee: +8
    Romney: -1
    Gingrich: -4
    Palin: -18

    And I'll draw the line there. Also, am I mistake or is Gingich not +6 in your measure? Still, I'd consider that better than expected.

    ReplyDelete
  5. RobertNovember 23, 2009 at 7:54 PM

    I subtracted the (Very + Mostly) Unfavorable from the (Very + Mostly) Favorable. Yes the scores are

    Huckabee +32
    Romney +8
    Gingrich +6
    Palin -18

    Sorry for the math mistake on Gingrich.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Josh PutnamNovember 23, 2009 at 8:26 PM

    How many shorthand math mistakes have I made in the short tenure of this blog, Rob? Two million? You're excused for your error, but only this once.

    ReplyDelete
  7. RobertNovember 24, 2009 at 7:53 AM

    You may need to add Lou to your watchlist: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/24/lou-dobbs-weighing-white-house-run-in-2012-2/

    By the way what ever happened to Gary Sinise's candidacy?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Josh PutnamNovember 24, 2009 at 7:44 PM

    Nah, he only gets 5%.

    Here's the link from Rob.

    Lieutenant Dan has some skeletons in his closet. He'd never make it.

    ReplyDelete