Bill Pascoe says, in Iowa, Rick Santorum or Unknown Republican X have the most to gain. [This post is great if only for the explanation of the differences in caucus rules between the parties in Iowa.]
Nate Silver is of the opinion that the latter may also find some benefit (...in the nomination race).
Who is Unknown Republican X? FHQ's money is on John Thune. But is he more 2016 material than 2012?
Thoughts?
Hat tip to Paul Gurian for the link.
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9 comments:
I don't know much about Thune, but I don't get the impression that he and Huckabee have the same base. More vocal as an economic conservative than a social conservative?
That's a good (and quick) point, Jack. I don't know that I'm necessarily trying to equate Thune with Huckabee in terms of the base they appeal to. Santorum is a more natural heir to the Huckabee fortune, for lack of a better term, but I don't know that it is all that simple (especially if someone catches on).
In the end, I probably didn't do the best job of laying out the rules on this one. That lead to more discussion usually, though.
Santorum is the more likely heir to Huckabee, but Pawlenty may be the most helped by Huckabee not running.....in that he's a potentially strong challenger for the nomination who might have otherwise been shut out of an early win if Huckabee had too strong a hold on Iowa and Romney on NH. Now he has a much stronger chance at scoring an early win.
I guess you could say that whoever you think now has the best chance at winning Iowa benefits the most from Huckabee not running.
Santorum lost a Senate re-election race by almost 20 points in 2006. Admittedly that was an extremely anti-Republican year. But if he got beat that badly running in his home state, how is he going to do in a national campaign?
Santorum would be a better choice as a VP pick for a candidate like Mitt Romney who, much like John McCain last year, would need reinforcement with the base to make sure it gave money, volunteered and goes to the polls. In essence, Santorum would likely be more successful playing the same role that Sarah Palin played last year for a nominee with marginal conservative cred than going for the nomination himself.
If Huckabee doesn't run and Sarah Palin does (and I imagine she will), she probably gets helped the most. The Iowa republican electorate is a very conservative lot, both fiscally and conservatively. And there is no questioning Sarah Palin's bonafides on those fronts.
the timming of palin's book tour and huck's willy horton moment... make me think palin will gain most of his voters in the next few polls.
Palin has the most to gain, but she will need to be organized, and that usually takes an Iowan with experience in caucus organization. Candidate X who has a good social conservative message can do well with organization, but they need to be able to take it national after Iowa. Money alone doesn't work. Romney proved that in 2008.
Rob,
It looks like Tom Schaller is trying to jump on the Gingrich bandwagon.
Is it just me, or does Huckabee look like he is putting some weight back on?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/12/04/romney-says-he-takes-huckabee-at-his-word/
It is nice of Mitt to come to Mike's defense while pointing out that he did not pardon anyone while he was a governor.
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