FHQ obviously has not weighed in on this race since the primary set the stage early last month. Here we are, though, on yet another election day. The dynamics in this one have been interesting. In political science we operate under the assumption that there will be some tightening in the polls in any race as election day nears. However, in blue Massachusetts, with Ted Kennedy's seat on the line, the fact that Scott Brown has pulled even and even surpassed Martha Coakley in some polls exceeds even those expectations.
The polls are open (and
close tonight at 8pm Eastern) and Bay staters are voting. What are your thoughts on how this race has progressed and who do you think will pull this thing out tonight (...or in the near future if we have to wait!?!)?
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ReplyDeleteI spent 5 years in MA many years ago and find it hard to wrap my mind around a Republican succeeding Ted Kennedy. I really question the polls and about turnout. I understand that Coakley ran a very poor campaign, but if the Democrats can't pull this out in MA, they are in much more trouble than I thought they were.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've learned over the last year or so is that if you run a bad enough campaign when the political tide is against you, anything can happen. My county executive was seen as a rising star in the party, had a huge fundraising edge against an unknown challenger with no ideas, had done a fantastic job (even the politically active Republicans I know have great respect for him), etc. etc. etc. I fully expected him to win with 60% of the vote, as did most. He lost by several hundred because he took the race for granted and ran a very poor campaign. Granted, Nassau County is not Massachusetts, but if you're an incumbent or elected official that's run an awful campaign and the voters on the other side are angry and your side isn't motivated, you run the risk of losing, no matter how popular you may think you are or no matter how liberal or conservative your constituency.
ReplyDeleteLink to live election results.
ReplyDeleteI am shocked! Obama is in trouble. The Democrats need to get their house in order or they will suffer in November.
ReplyDeleteThis may not have been the best thing to lead the news on the one year anniversary of the beginning of the Obama administration.
ReplyDeleteDid Coakley run a poor campaign or are Democrats in trouble in November? As always the answer is somewhere in the middle, but you have to think that on January 20, 2010, things are leaning to the latter rather than the former.
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ReplyDeleteI agree with Dawg Doc for the most part, but much can happen between now and then. These single elections usually mean much less than the attention they get. The midterm elections will probably bring the parties back to the mean, but there are some major factors that could intervene.
ReplyDeleteIf Republicans appeal to the middle like they did in VA and MA or run against a bad candidate as in NJ and MA, they will pick up many seats, maybe even more than projected. If they turn hard right and insist on orthodoxy as they did in NY-23 and appear to be doing in FL, they will score some more dramatic upsets but go down in flames in others they should win in a midterm. Also, if the Democrats break up health care into incremental pieces forcing the Republicans to either support very popular ideas or the insurance companies, they may be able to turn things around.
Finally, I still believe the unemployment rate will be the biggest factor in the midterms. If it stays above 10%, Democrats may lose one if not both Houses. If it goes down to 8%, Republicans will not pick up as much as they are thinking right now. If it is around 9% in November, Dawg Doc will probably be right on the money. I'm not sure how much the federal government can really do about employment, particularly in the short-term. Unemployment tends to go in cycles with relatively sharp peaks. If unemployment comes down appreciably this year, it will either be because off an economic cycle or a delayed effect of the stimulus bills or a combination of both. Either way, the Democrats would look better if they passed some legislation this year that voters believe help bring down unemployment. It looks like that will NOT be another stimulus bill.
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ReplyDeleteJoke of the day:
ReplyDelete"You know, it's hard to believe President Obama has now been in office for a year. Isn't that amazing? It's a year. And you know, it's incredible. He took something that was in terrible, terrible shape, and he brought it back from the brink of disaster: The Republican party." -Jay Leno
Found at
http://politicalhumor.about.com/b/2010/01/22/the-weeks-best-late-night-jokes-63.htm