Frontloading HQ: February 2010

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

It's too bad Kentucky's primary is so late

From GOP12:

A new Magellan Strategies survey (pdf) has Sarah Palin leading her prospective 2012 rivals in Kentucky.

1. Sarah Palin 28%

2. Mike Huckabee 24%

3. Mitt Romney 16%

4. Newt Gingrich 12%

5. Ron Paul 4%

6. Tim Pawlenty 2%

If Sarah Palin wins Kentucky in 2012, she'll already be the Republican nominee. But that's all FHQ is willing to say. As of now Kentucky is scheduled to hold a May 22 presidential primary in 2012.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Gallup on 2012: Obama in a Deadlock with Generic Republican

Oh, and there was an open-ended GOP primary question too. [Here's the Gallup release.]

2012 General Election

Obama: 44%

Republican: 42%

Other: 3%

Not Sure: 11%

Sample: 1025 adults (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/- 4%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: Obama garners nearly 90% support from Democrats and the Republican gets 86% from Republicans in the survey. Among independents, though, the GOP holds a 45%-31% advantage over the president.

2012 GOP Primary Race

Romney: 14%

Palin: 11%

McCain: 7%

(Scott) Brown: 4%

Huckabee: 3%

Gingrich: 3%

Paul: 2%

Pawlenty: 1%

(Bob) McDonnell: 1%

Fred Thompson: 1%

Jindal: 1%

Other: 10%

None/No Opinion: 42%

Sample: 495 Republicans or Republican-leaning independents (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/-5%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: That's a lot of survey respondents who have no opinion or chose no one. Despite that lack of a clear "face of the party," the generic GOP candidate still fares rather well against the president. Yes, generics usually do pretty well, but still, it isn't a bad place to be if you happen to be on the right.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Palin for President

Well, I think it is safe to say that Sarah Palin's drop-in on the Tea Party convention in Nashville has accomplished one thing: everyone is talking about her running for president again. Some folks never stopped, but the chatter has hit a new stride post-Tea Party.

Marc Ambinder sees a Palin paradigm shift.

...and Nate Silver is already looking ahead to the 2012 primaries (I don't like the calendar he's using there. For FHQ, it is too hypothetical. We would take a more conservative approach and use a more traditional calendar -- until there's actual proof of a calendar like that having been signed off on by either of the two major parties.)