Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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And Newt Gingrich?

The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	46	9
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	47	39	14
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	49	42	9
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	45	45	10
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	55	43	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	48	36	16
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	52	34	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	50	42	9
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	53	36	11
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	52	39	9
Average				49.45	40.00	--
Regression Average				46.82	42.24	--

*This seems to hurt Palin the most. She is the candidate most often polled against Obama by other polling firms.

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