Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

FHQ will skip the hemming and hawing over the Florida Presidential Preference Date Selection Committee decision to schedule the Sunshine state primary for January 31. That is being covered adequately elsewhere. Now that Florida is locked in to a non-compliant date, however, what does it mean for the likely calendar positions Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will adopt? One less state up in the air means there are fewer scenarios that are plausible.

FHQ sees three most likely scenarios and they obviously depend on a couple of things.
1. If South Carolina Republican Party Chair Chad Connelly is to be believed, then South Carolina Republicans will hold a January 28 primary -- the latest possible date that keeps Palmetto state Republicans ahead of Florida.

2. The one thing that will settle how the rest of the calendar looks is what is going to take place between Nevada and New Hampshire. Nevada Republican rules now call for the caucus in the Silver state to be held on the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary. That violates the New Hampshire law calling for a seven day buffer between the Granite state primary and the next contest. Something will have to be worked out and it is likely to favor New Hampshire if only because the New Hampshire General Court (legislature) is not likely to reconvene and change the law. Changing a party rule is much easier at this point.

That leaves three options:
Option 1 (New Hampshire waits out Nevada and goes 11 days earlier)

Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 2 (Nevada chooses a non-Saturday to hold caucuses)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 24: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3 (New Hampshire breaks its own law)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has been pretty clear that Nevada coming on the heels of New Hampshire -- the Saturday after -- is a nonstarter. That all but eliminates Option 3. What is at issue, then, is what Nevada is going to do assuming South Carolina decides on a January 28 primary. Will they go a week earlier than South Carolina, change their tether rule and allow New Hampshire to go eleven days earlier or will Nevada opt to change the rule and hold a weekday -- Tuesday, January 24 perhaps -- caucus? Again, assuming South Carolina ultimately settles on January 28, that Nevada question will be the one to solve the rest of the calendar.

--
UPDATE:
Option 3a (New Hampshire opts for a non-Tuesday primary date)

Saturday, January 7: Iowa 
Saturday, January 14: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

This one is 3a and not 4 because New Hampshire making any changes or breaking from the tradition of going on Tuesday is far-fetched. But FHQ should make note of the fact that New Hampshire law does not require Bill Gardner to set the date of the primary on a Tuesday. That likely won't happen, but neither will December primaires.

Recent Posts:

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

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