I actually think Florida did a stupid thing. Iowa and NH will have around a week or so between the contests. If NH sticks to their guns then there will be 11 days between NH and Nevada. If Nevada sticks to a Saturday schedule then that would leave a week between Nevada and SC. If SC goes on the 28th then you have 3 days between SC and Florida. Not very bright if you want attention.
Also interesting to see what they do with their 1.5 district delegates. In 2008, they threw them in the statewide pot and made it winner take all at the state level. They won't be able to do that this year. It would have to be proportional. Given that it would be fifth, there likely would be residual support for other candidates that could prevent the winner from reaching 50%.
I think my subsequent posts cover most of your first paragraph comments.
As for the delegate situation, much of that is going to depend on how the RNC decides to enforce that 50% penalty. If the enforcement mirrors 2008, then everything will be done as if Florida were not penalized. All of the delegates would be seated at the convention, but they would only have half a vote on the floor. In that scenario, Florida loses half of its delegate strength on the back end of the process, not up front.
But I have no idea whether that is what the RNC will do this time around. There is nothing in the rules to address the how of the enforcement of the penalty -- only that they lose half. I suspect that we'll see a repeat of 2008, but only because of that precedent.
I actually think Florida did a stupid thing. Iowa and NH will have around a week or so between the contests. If NH sticks to their guns then there will be 11 days between NH and Nevada. If Nevada sticks to a Saturday schedule then that would leave a
ReplyDeleteweek between Nevada and SC. If SC goes on the 28th then you have 3 days between SC and Florida. Not very bright if you want attention.
Also interesting to see what they do with their 1.5 district delegates. In 2008, they threw them in the statewide pot and made it winner take all at the state level. They won't be able to do that this year. It would have to be proportional. Given that it would be fifth, there likely would be residual support for other candidates that could prevent the winner from reaching 50%.
I think my subsequent posts cover most of your first paragraph comments.
ReplyDeleteAs for the delegate situation, much of that is going to depend on how the RNC decides to enforce that 50% penalty. If the enforcement mirrors 2008, then everything will be done as if Florida were not penalized. All of the delegates would be seated at the convention, but they would only have half a vote on the floor. In that scenario, Florida loses half of its delegate strength on the back end of the process, not up front.
But I have no idea whether that is what the RNC will do this time around. There is nothing in the rules to address the how of the enforcement of the penalty -- only that they lose half. I suspect that we'll see a repeat of 2008, but only because of that precedent.
That's all we have to go on.