Frontloading HQ: [2012 Presidential Primary Calendar in Review] Part 3: Where We Go From Here -- The 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

This is the third part of a three part series on the development of the 2012 presidential primary calendar and its implications. Part one provided the legislation that was introduced within state legislatures during the 2011 sessions to shift the dates on which the various states hold their presidential primaries. Part two examined the motivating factors behind the movement. Part three will look forward to the next cycle.

What look back at what the presidential primary movement for 2012 hath wrought would be complete without a look at what the law changes made in 2009-11 portend for 2016? Here is what the 2016 presidential primary calendar would look like given the state of election law in the various states as of today. The links should take you to the relevant passages in each state's election law covering the primary date. [NOTE: There are a few that default to Lexis Nexis results that may or may not work for everyone. Please just let me know where that is the case and I'll provide the text in a footnote later.]

The 2016 calendar will have a permanent home here.

2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

February

Tuesday, February 2:
Colorado caucuses¹
Minnesota caucuses²
Missouri
Utah³

Tuesday, February 23:
Arizona
Michigan

March

Tuesday, March 1:
Colorado caucuses¹
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

Tuesday, March 8:
Alabama⁴
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi

Tuesday, March 15:
Illinois

Saturday, March 19:
Louisiana

April

Tuesday, April 5:
Maryland
Washington, DC
Wisconsin⁵

Tuesday, April 26:
Connecticut⁶
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island⁷

May

Tuesday, May 3:
Indiana
North Carolina

Tuesday, May 10:
Nebraska
West Virginia

Tuesday, May 17:
Kentucky
Oregon

Tuesday, May 24:
Arkansas

June

Tuesday, June 7:
California⁸
Montana
New Jersey⁹
New Mexico
South Dakota

Primary states with no specified date:
Florida
Georgia
Kansas¹²
New Hampshire
New York
Ohio¹³
South Carolina

Without dwelling on something that is WELL before its time, FHQ should note that those February states are only problematic in 2016 if the two parties' delegates selection rules mirror the rules from the 2012 cycle. They may or may not. The real problem children, if you will, are the primary states without specified dates for 2016. As of January 2012 they are the free agents for the 2016 primary calendar and the ones that may bear the most intense watching between now and mid-2015. That said, first things first: The first step is a set of rules from the DNC and RNC. We have a ways to go before the parties settle on/finalized something on that front (2014).

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¹ The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.
² The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.
³ The Western States Presidential Primary in Utah is scheduled for the first Tuesday in February, but the contest will only be held on that date if the state legislature decides to allocate funds for the primary.
⁴ The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Alabama has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (HB 425) was to have taken effect upon signing according to the enrolled version of the bill.
⁵ See definition of "Spring primary" for clause dealing with the timing of the presidential primary.
⁶ The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Connecticut has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (HB 6532) was to have taken effect as of July 1, 2011 according to the enrolled version of the bill.
⁷ The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Rhode Island has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (H 5653, S 399) was to have taken effect upon signing according to the enrolled version of the bill.
⁸ The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in California has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (AB 80) will take effect on January 1, 2012 according to the a list of bills enacted in 2011.
⁹ Legislation passed (A 3777) during the 2011 session removed references to the separate presidential primary from the law. The primary referenced in the statute references all primaries in New Jersey.
¹² Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992. Funds have not been appropriated by the legislature for the primary since that time. That said, there are laws in place providing for a presidential preference primary. Assuming funding, the Kansas secretary of state has the option of choosing a date -- on or before November 1 in the year preceding the presidential election -- that either coincides with at least 5 other states' delegate selection events or is on the first Tuesday in April or before.
¹³ Depending on the outcome of the ballot initiative in November, Ohio will have either a first Tuesday after the first Monday in March or first Tuesday after the first Monday in May primary date. If the law created by HB 194 is upheld, the primary will move to May. If not, the primary law should revert to the previous March date called for. None of this precludes the Ohio legislature from revisiting all of this prior to the 2016 election.