Wednesday, July 18, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/18/12)

There were a handful of polls out today and and additional one that came in after the buzzer yesterday. How earth-shattering any of them were is in the eye of the beholder, but each of the four were from states that were and continue to be blue following the addition of the new polls to the FHQ weighted average.

New State Polls (7/18/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
New Hampshire
7/5-7/15
+/- 4.5%
470 likely voters
49
45
3
+4
+4.66
New Jersey
7/9-7/15
+/- 2.4%
1623 registered voters
49
38
11
+11
+13.95
New Mexico
PPP1
7/13-7/16
+/- 3.64%
724 registered voters
42
38
6
+4
+10.88
Virginia
7/16-7/17
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+3.23
1 The poll numbers used from the Public Policy Polling survey of New Mexico include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 13% of the respondents. Without Johnson, Obama (49%) leads Romney (44%) by 5%. Using that data would have increased the FHQ weighted average margin to 11.14 in favor of the president.

Poll Quick Hits:
New Hampshire:
I don't know that I buy the idea that Obama slipped in the UNH Granite State Poll. Sure the margin was small-ish, but the result was entirely in line with the recent New Hampshire polling. The problem, if you can call it that, was that most seemed to compare this July Granite State Poll to the one conducted  April. And yeah, that poll represented something of a high water mark for Obama. It is, along with the January UNH poll and a May Public Policy Polling survey, the among the minority of polls to show Obama cresting above 50%. Is New Hampshire close? Yes. Have other polls shown this already? Yes as evidenced by the minuscule drop in the FHQ margin between the president and Governor Romney once this poll was added. Moving on.

New Jersey:
Strong Obama state before, Strong Obama state after. That there was any significant shift in the weighted average was driven more by the fact that the Quinnipiac poll replaced the +23 Rutgers poll as the most recent poll of the presidential race in the Garden state. That did jump New Jersey up two spots toward the victory line on the Electoral College Spectrum. Don't read too much into that at this point though. There just isn't enough polling data on the state level yet to prevent some minor volatility like that.

New Mexico:
The Public Policy Polling survey in the Land of Enchantment doesn't really pass the smell test. I don't say that because there is anything wrong in the poll necessarily, but more because this one looks like an outlier at this point. As CNN's Peter Hamby tweeted, New Mexico isn't on either campaigns' radar. I also liked Dave Weigel's comment that Crossroads has been running ads in New Mexico unchecked, but I'm not ready to sign off on that rather convenient explanation until I see either Obama or Romney campaigning/buying ad time there or some more data showing this tight of a race.

Virginia:
If you want a tight race, see Virginia. Of course, the Rasmussen poll represents the closest margin in a survey of the Old Dominion since the deadlocked poll Rasmussen released a month ago. The net change in the overall weighted average in Virginia as negligible. It remains the fourth closest state behind North Carolina, Florida and Iowa.


All told, the four polls did not change anything on the electoral college map. In fact, the only thing that did change on the map was the date.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
MN-10
(156)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
ND-3
(55)
NY-29
(36)
NJ-14
(170)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
MS-6
(52)
HI-4
(40)
CT-7
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List added only New Mexico. The PPP survey pulled the Land of Enchantment within range of shifting to an Obama lean. That does bring a little of the darkest blue onto the list, but that is really the only noteworthy thing about it. There is still a fairly wide berth between New Mexico and Oregon, the Obama lean state with the largest margin.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

One thing that I failed to mention in the initial trial electoral college post yesterday was that the map (and perhaps the other graphics -- I haven't decided yet.) will have a permanent home here. You can also find a link to that by clicking on the map in the upper left corner.



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