The quick take away is that nothing changed on the map, Electoral College Spectrum or Watch List despite a tied poll in Virginia and two new surveys from Nevada.
New State Polls (7/19/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nevada
|
7/16-7/17
|
+/- 3.8%
|
665 registered voters
|
50
|
46
|
4
|
+4
|
+5.40
| |
Nevada
|
7/17-7/18
|
+/- 2.95%
|
1092 likely voters
|
49
|
43
|
6
|
+6
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
7/18
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
4
|
+2
|
+3.79
| |
Virginia
|
7/10-7/16
|
+/- 2.4%
|
1673 registered voters
|
44
|
44
|
10
|
0
|
+3.01
| |
Wisconsin
|
7/17-7/18
|
+/- 2.93%
|
1162 likely voters
|
49
|
42
|
9
|
+7
|
+6.22
| |
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
MN-10
(156)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
NY-29
(36)
|
NJ-14
(170)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
MS-6
(52)
|
HI-4
(40)
|
CT-7
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
GA-16
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
WV-5
(129)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
AZ-11
(181)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Toss Up Romney
| |
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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