Thursday, July 19, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/19/12)

Another day, another set of polls in states that are either toss ups favoring Obama or Obama leans. I've got a few things that I want to say about the collection, but you'll forgive me if I press pause on the elaboration and hold until tomorrow. I had some family issues that called me away, but I wanted to get these polls in and a graphics update up.

The quick take away is that nothing changed on the map, Electoral College Spectrum or Watch List despite a tied poll in Virginia and two new surveys from Nevada.

New State Polls (7/19/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Nevada
7/16-7/17
+/- 3.8%
665 registered voters
50
46
4
+4
+5.40
Nevada
7/17-7/18
+/- 2.95%
1092 likely voters
49
43
6
+6
--
Ohio
7/18
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
45
4
+2
+3.79
Virginia
7/10-7/16
+/- 2.4%
1673 registered voters
44
44
10
0
+3.01
Wisconsin
7/17-7/18
+/- 2.93%
1162 likely voters
49
42
9
+7
+6.22








The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
MN-10
(156)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
ND-3
(55)
NY-29
(36)
NJ-14
(170)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
MS-6
(52)
HI-4
(40)
CT-7
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.



The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


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