...but there were no presidential numbers. Given that the margin in that survey of the governor's race favored Democrat, Jay Inslee, for the first time, that may serve as some indication as to the underlying partisan makeup of this particular sample. On its face, that would favor the president in a state he carried by 17 points, but we will hold off on speculating further until or if the Seattle-based firm releases any presidential numbers.
New State Polls (7/24/12)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan
|
7/23
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
4
|
+6
|
+4.90
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan:
On its surface, the Rasmussen poll appears to behave well within the expectations in Michigan. Yet, while most polls have recently shown a tighter race (<5%) in the Great Lakes state, Rasmussen has so far not followed suit. The six point spread in the poll conducted this past Monday is only two points closer than the June survey of the state by Rasmussen. And that two points was shaved off of Obama's share while Romney remained steady at 42%. Nevertheless, none of this did much to sway the FHQ weighted average in Michigan. There was a very slight shift toward Obama, pushing the state within a tenth of an averaged percentage point of moving into the Lean Obama category.
As for changes on the map or in the Electoral College Spectrum, it was close but not quite. With just one poll -- one confirming the current state of the race there -- there just was not that much chance of a change anyway. Michigan is to the Toss Up/Lean line as Washington, New Mexico and Minnesota have been to the Strong/Lean line recently: new information has translated into movement, but not category-changing movement.
...yet.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
RI-4
(7)2
|
NJ-14
(160)
|
NH-4
(257)
|
IN-11
(159)
|
ND-3
(55)
|
NY-29
(36)
|
CT-7
(167)
|
OH-183
(275/281)
|
MT-3
(148)
|
MS-6
(52)
|
HI-4
(40)
|
MN-10
(177)
|
CO-9
(284/263)
|
WV-5
(145)
|
AL-9
(46)
|
VT-3
(43)
|
WA-12
(189)
|
VA-13
(297/254)
|
GA-16
(140)
|
KY-8
(37)
|
MD-10
(53)
|
NM-5
(194)
|
IA-6
(303/241)
|
SC-9
(124)
|
KS-6
(29)
|
CA-55
(108)
|
OR-7
(201)
|
FL-29
(332/235)
|
LA-8
(115)
|
AK-3
(23)
|
MA-11
(119)
|
PA-20
(221)
|
NC-15
(206)
|
NE-5
(107)
|
OK-7
(20)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
WI-10
(231)
|
MO-10
(191)
|
AR-6
(102)
|
ID-4
(13)
|
DE-3
(142)
|
NV-6
(237)
|
AZ-11
(181)
|
TX-38
(96)
|
WY-3
(9)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
MI-16
(253)
|
TN-11
(170)
|
SD-3
(58)
|
UT-6
(6)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The good news is that Public Policy Polling was in the field with a new survey in Michigan over the weekend. The 14 point gap -- the largest of any poll conducted in Michigan in 2012 -- the firm found there in May will likely be fodder for "Obama's lead slips" stories when those results are released
FHQ would be surprised if they find a +14 margin in favor of Obama this time around. But there I go again: speculating on polls that have yet to be released. [UPDATE:] The results to be released Wednesday in Michigan apparently still show Obama up by double digits.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Michigan
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Obama
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Romney
|
to Toss Up Obama
| |
Washington
|
from Strong Obama
|
to Lean Obama
| |
West Virginia
|
from Strong Romney
|
to Lean Romney
| |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Please see:
Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
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