New State Polls (7/25/12) | |||||||||
State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | 7/?? | +/- ?.?% | 591 ?? voters | 41 | 50 | -- | +9 | +10.05 | |
Michigan | 7/21-7/23 | +/- 4.1% | 579 likely voters | 53 | 39 | 8 | +14 | +5.20 | |
Michigan | 7/23 | +/- 3.4% | 825 likely voters | 44 | 45 | -- | +1 | -- | |
New York | 7/17-7/23 | +/- 2.3% | 1779 registered voters | 55 | 32 | 10 | +23 | +24.15 | |
Pennsylvania | 7/21-7/23 | +/- 3.6% | 758 likely voters | 49 | 43 | 8 | +6 | +6.65 | |
Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
If the pendulum is swinging back toward the Republican candidate in 2012, the new Insider Advantage poll of the Peach state was further evidence of that. Toward the tail end of the 2008 race, Georgia tightened, while still remaining about 5 points outside of Obama's grasp. A state that in 2008 was on the periphery of being if not competitive, then perhaps worthy of some resource expenditure, has inched away from the Democrat and toward his Republican challenger in 2012. In the light polling that has been done in Georgia, Romney has maintained a comfortable 10 point advantage. The terrain on which this election fight will be waged is not near or even threatening to be near the the line between lean and strong Republican states. Instead, in 2012, the battle will be fought over states bluer in hue. Like...
| Changes (July 25) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Toss Up Obama | Lean Obama | |
There is nothing quite like a day with the release of two widely divergent polls in one state. Such was the case in the Great Lakes state today. [Incidentally, it is even more noteworthy when the average of the two polls essentially confirms the margin in a Rasmussen poll released just yesterday.] In actuality, the +14 (Obama) from PPP and the +1 (Romney) from Mitchell Research do serve as bookends on an array of polls that in FHQ's weighted average now place Michigan in the Lean Obama category. Of course, news late yesterday from PPP that today's poll would show a double digit lead for the president in the state forced some quick calculations on a preliminary average. Alone the PPP survey would have pushed Michigan's average beyond the current weighted average of Nevada. With the Mitchell survey included the impact was muted; inching Michigan just over into a new category.
New York:
Is anyone surprised? No, New York has remained firmly within the president's tally of states, but these polls are helpful in determining the relative order of states. The more information we are privy to the better consumers we will all be.
Pennsylvania:
Just south in the Keystone state, Obama held a six point advantage over Mitt Romney in the latest PPP poll there. The survey represents a small improvement (+2) for Romney since the last time PPP was in the field, but is well within the range of polls conducted in the last two months.
--
Tangent:
Both PPP surveys released today used and reported likely voter screened results. One question that continues to pop into my head regarding how the various polling firms transition from registered voter to likely voter screens in their reporting. Most tend to be one or the other at this point. Rasmussen has been issuing likely voter results for a while now as Quinnipiac or NBC/Marist have continued to utilize just registered voters. PPP, on the other hand, has not been consistent one way or the other. Pennsylvania and Michigan were likely voter surveys this week while New Mexico last week was a registered voter poll. FHQ is not suggesting anything is amiss here, but rather that I don't know of (or haven't see) the reasoning for the variation across states. My hunch is that it has more to do with gathering a large enough likely voter sample to be representative than anything else. But that's just a guess.
Today's polls did slightly shake up the map and the Electoral College Spectrum. Michigan, as mentioned before, slipped into the Lean Obama category, but holds its spot though not color on the Spectrum. New York flip-flopped with Hawaii (...again), and Georgia (thankfully) switched places with West Virginia. That the Mountain state has been the state closest to shifting into Lean Romney territory masked the fact that Georgia is likely closer. Remember that states where no polling has been conducted are measured using the election results from the last three presidential cycles. Gore's 2000 finish in West Virginia pulled the average down and provided some insulation between Georgia and its place straddling the line between categories (inconsequential though it may be in this cycle).
The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
RI-4 (7)2 | NJ-14 (160) | NH-4 (257) | IN-11 (159) | ND-3 (55) |
HI-4 (11) | CT-7 (167) | OH-183 (275/281) | MT-3 (148) | MS-6 (52) |
NY-29 (40) | MN-10 (177) | CO-9 (284/263) | GA-16 (145) | AL-9 (46) |
VT-3 (43) | WA-12 (189) | VA-13 (297/254) | WV-5 (129) | KY-8 (37) |
MD-10 (53) | NM-5 (194) | IA-6 (303/241) | SC-9 (124) | KS-6 (29) |
CA-55 (108) | OR-7 (201) | FL-29 (332/235) | LA-8 (115) | AK-3 (23) |
MA-11 (119) | PA-20 (221) | NC-15 (206) | NE-5 (107) | OK-7 (20) |
IL-20 (139) | WI-10 (231) | MO-10 (191) | AR-6 (102) | ID-4 (13) |
DE-3 (142) | NV-6 (237) | AZ-11 (181) | TX-38 (96) | WY-3 (9) |
ME-4 (146) | MI-16 (253) | TN-11 (170) | SD-3 (58) | UT-6 (6) |
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
The states remained the same on the Watch List today, but Michigan's move into the Lean category now means that poll watchers should keep an eye on polls out of the Great Lake state that show a small enough margin to pull Michigan back into Toss up territory.
The Watch List1 | |||
State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
Michigan | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
Missouri | from Toss Up Romney | to Lean Romney | |
Nevada | from Lean Obama | to Toss Up Obama | |
New Hampshire | from Toss Up Obama | to Lean Obama | |
New Mexico | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
North Carolina | from Toss Up Romney | to Toss Up Obama | |
Washington | from Strong Obama | to Lean Obama | |
West Virginia | from Strong Romney | to Lean Romney | |
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
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